Would be interesting if there were a predictive formula that

[Polish3d]

The alien threads in OT got me thinking about this concept and I decided to post about it here.

Basic idea is that perhaps there is a link between timescale of existence and range of travel.


For instance (rough lazy model):


Pre- Civ - few hundred mile range of travel (light intra-continental travel)

1 thousand year old (year 1000) civ - few thousand mile range of travel (light intra-planetary travel)

2 Thousand year civilization - Light interplanetary travel

2-3 thousand year old civ - interstellar travel

1 million year old civ - galaxy-wide travel

500 million year old civ - inter-galactic travel

Billion year old civ - inter-dimensional/time travel



If I can find the time I might see if there is some rough pattern like


Range of Travel in Kilometers Equals Age of Civilization in years x 10^2 or whatever

That's too simplistic but its an interesting concept, because if some pattern could be established, perhaps it would have some novel predictive capability for the future. No guarantor of course, but a fun exercise to be sure

 

[Polish3d]

Another idea I had while I'm at it.


I wonder if the relative effect of speed on time can be compounded?


say:


-Have a ship going at near the speed of light

-Then have an object doing loops around the inside of the ship also at near the speed of light

-Have a person inside the capsule

= So that time for the person/capsule pass more slowly than that of the ship whose own time is also passing more slowly then the surrounding universe.


Abitrary:

So 1 year for the person is 1000 years for the ship, which is 10,000,000,000,000 years outside the ship, and all that time they've been traveling at near lightspeed and they've just traversed the galaxy+ in a year

 

[dealmaster00]

Yeah, but you have to be careful when extrapolating...especially with this topic. I wouldn't think it would be easy to predict how far we will travel in the future, but this is a really interesting idea and I think it would be cool just to see the graph of our civilization's age vs our spread.

 

[Markbnj]

I think speed is probably more important than range.

 

[CycloWizard]

I would think that there would be a couple different regimes that you might need to consider. In the first x number of years, the population of the civilization would limit its range. Population models generally give exponential growth with time in the absence of a competing species. However, after the civilization has reached essentially everywhere on the planet, the number of people is no longer a limiting factor, since only a few people will be shot off into space. Thus, technology is essentially the limiting factor, though it played almost no role in the initial wandering around the planet.

It would be interesting to see if you could compile some data on the subject, but I'm not sure where it might come from.

 

[f95toli]

I don't think that it is that simple. Ancient Egypt was around for a VERY long time (over 5000 years) and AFAIK they never travelled very far. Persia was also around for a long time (and is still around today in the form of Iran).
Not to mention China which was founded in 221 B.C. and is still around (although one could argue that the revolution put an end to the old empire) but the chines were never great explorers.

On the other hand you have the viking which wasn't even a "proper" civilization (no centralized government etc) but still travelled all the way to the coast of what is today USA and Canada, far into Russia, northern Africa etc.

 

[firewolfsm]

It's too unpredictable, until some amazing new development comes, we're stuck in this solar system for as far into the future as we can see.

It could happen in 1000 years, or 100, we don't really know.

 

[Oceandevi]

Space travel is our limiting factor now. And all its inherent difficulties: escaping the gravity well, radiation(and long term effect), mental stability while traveling, political weakness in backing large projects... the list is huge.

 

[Kadarin]

Western civilization is unique thus far in the history of humanity, in that it has (relatively) recently embraced technology and industry. Therefore, I think the "range" as a function of age is invalid.