- Feb 26, 2006
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http://www.modbee.com/columnists/hill/story/509383.html
Forget Tiny Tim: Retailers need a little love this year
By David W. Hill
The holiday shopping season is always a critical time for businesses large and small, chain-owned and independent, warehouse and boutique. If they can make money in the fourth quarter of the year, they'll likely make it for another year.
In any year, that's a big chore, but in today's bleak economic climate the challenge is staggering, as retailers and other businesses across the country report dramatic sales declines leading up to the holiday. Their forecasts, and those of industry analysts, aren't very optimistic when it comes to Christmas shoppers.
And there's nothing worse for business at this critical time of year than being faced with a bunch of Santa's helpers who can't or won't open their purse strings to make purchases.
While all this might seem like a problem faced by retailers in other parts of the country, businesses in the Northern San Joaquin Valley also are in a fight for their survival this holiday shopping season.
"Retail is a big driver of this economy," said Doug Sweetland, economic development director at the Stanislaus Economic Development and Workforce Alliance. "There's no question this will be a critical period for business here."
Sweetland said the situation is particularly tough for small businesses that haven't been around long enough to develop a following. "If the consumer base is not there, you are really going to be hurting."
That's why businesses have to find ways to keep promoting themselves, he said. Having a strong business plan, good cost controls and the right direction can also help them get through this roughest of patches, he said.
But it's the lack of consumer confidence that's the biggest concern right now, he stressed, because without it, shoppers will be reluctant to spend. "The lack of confidence is just a reflection of what is going on in the economy as a whole."
"Confidence is going to return," Sweetland assured, "the question is ... when?"
Joyce Keller, co-owner of Keller's Gifts in Modesto's McHenry Village, thinks consumer confidence in the valley started to decline along with the housing market a couple of years ago. She and the staff have watched as foot traffic and sales slipped.
After more than 50 years of providing valley shoppers with an upscale shopping experience more often equated with the Bay Area, Keller's also was no longer "the only game in town" for purchasing fine china, wedding gifts and elegant items. So Keller's refocused, expanding its home decorator merchandise and annual Christmas shop. "Find a niche and make it your own," Keller advised.
Even so, Keller is worried about what this holiday season will bring. Or what it won't.
Not lost on her and other small-business owners is the arrival of more competition in the Northern San Joaquin Valley.
From Monte Vista Crossings in Turlock to Riverbank's Crossroads shopping center on the border of northeast Modesto, more national chains and big-box stores will be competing for this year's slice of Christmas shopping revenue. That competition got even tougher with the opening of Modesto's first Wal-Mart Supercenter -- at one end of the retail spectrum -- and the completion of an upscale shopping plaza at Vintage Fair Mall with the likes of Coach, Bebe and Coldwater Creek -- at the other end.
"There's no question about it. It's tough for the small stores to compete with these guys on volume. You can only go so far with good customer service. It will have an impact," Sweetland said about the increased competition from national chains.
Still, he said, established small businesses can make it if they focus on continuing to cater to their regulars. "People still have a sense of loyalty to the businesses they have had good dealings with," he explained. "I know I do."
That kind of loyalty to small, locally owned businesses could be the key to success and survival this holiday season. No one expects valley shoppers to ignore the new stores or national-chain bargains. This season, more than any other in memory, price will be king with uneasy consumers.
But shoppers need to remember the small, independent stores, restaurants and service companies that were here long before the big boys discovered the region. The small businesses that have enjoyed the support of local shoppers over the years need it now more than ever.
The drop in gas prices put more money back in folks' pockets just in time for Christmas. Whether they'll spend it in these uncertain times remains to be seen. But whatever amount consumers do spend on Christmas this year, making sure some of it goes to the small businesses throughout the region is the best way to support the local economy.
"People tell me all the time that Keller's is an institution in this town and that it could never close," said Keller. "But our vendors are telling us a lot of stories about stores closing."
That's why during this most-important of holiday shopping seasons, the essential element in valley stores is you -- the shopper -- carrying lots and lots of packages.
This columist writes the local "business beat" column in our local newspaper and is always touting some new business.
While what he says is true, if people don't spend at the local retailers, they may not be here next year, consumer confidence is WAY down here.
Our local unemployment rate is around 12% and does not look like it will get better anytime soon.
Almost everyone we know as severely scaled back their X-mas shopping plans.
Forget Tiny Tim: Retailers need a little love this year
By David W. Hill
The holiday shopping season is always a critical time for businesses large and small, chain-owned and independent, warehouse and boutique. If they can make money in the fourth quarter of the year, they'll likely make it for another year.
In any year, that's a big chore, but in today's bleak economic climate the challenge is staggering, as retailers and other businesses across the country report dramatic sales declines leading up to the holiday. Their forecasts, and those of industry analysts, aren't very optimistic when it comes to Christmas shoppers.
And there's nothing worse for business at this critical time of year than being faced with a bunch of Santa's helpers who can't or won't open their purse strings to make purchases.
While all this might seem like a problem faced by retailers in other parts of the country, businesses in the Northern San Joaquin Valley also are in a fight for their survival this holiday shopping season.
"Retail is a big driver of this economy," said Doug Sweetland, economic development director at the Stanislaus Economic Development and Workforce Alliance. "There's no question this will be a critical period for business here."
Sweetland said the situation is particularly tough for small businesses that haven't been around long enough to develop a following. "If the consumer base is not there, you are really going to be hurting."
That's why businesses have to find ways to keep promoting themselves, he said. Having a strong business plan, good cost controls and the right direction can also help them get through this roughest of patches, he said.
But it's the lack of consumer confidence that's the biggest concern right now, he stressed, because without it, shoppers will be reluctant to spend. "The lack of confidence is just a reflection of what is going on in the economy as a whole."
"Confidence is going to return," Sweetland assured, "the question is ... when?"
Joyce Keller, co-owner of Keller's Gifts in Modesto's McHenry Village, thinks consumer confidence in the valley started to decline along with the housing market a couple of years ago. She and the staff have watched as foot traffic and sales slipped.
After more than 50 years of providing valley shoppers with an upscale shopping experience more often equated with the Bay Area, Keller's also was no longer "the only game in town" for purchasing fine china, wedding gifts and elegant items. So Keller's refocused, expanding its home decorator merchandise and annual Christmas shop. "Find a niche and make it your own," Keller advised.
Even so, Keller is worried about what this holiday season will bring. Or what it won't.
Not lost on her and other small-business owners is the arrival of more competition in the Northern San Joaquin Valley.
From Monte Vista Crossings in Turlock to Riverbank's Crossroads shopping center on the border of northeast Modesto, more national chains and big-box stores will be competing for this year's slice of Christmas shopping revenue. That competition got even tougher with the opening of Modesto's first Wal-Mart Supercenter -- at one end of the retail spectrum -- and the completion of an upscale shopping plaza at Vintage Fair Mall with the likes of Coach, Bebe and Coldwater Creek -- at the other end.
"There's no question about it. It's tough for the small stores to compete with these guys on volume. You can only go so far with good customer service. It will have an impact," Sweetland said about the increased competition from national chains.
Still, he said, established small businesses can make it if they focus on continuing to cater to their regulars. "People still have a sense of loyalty to the businesses they have had good dealings with," he explained. "I know I do."
That kind of loyalty to small, locally owned businesses could be the key to success and survival this holiday season. No one expects valley shoppers to ignore the new stores or national-chain bargains. This season, more than any other in memory, price will be king with uneasy consumers.
But shoppers need to remember the small, independent stores, restaurants and service companies that were here long before the big boys discovered the region. The small businesses that have enjoyed the support of local shoppers over the years need it now more than ever.
The drop in gas prices put more money back in folks' pockets just in time for Christmas. Whether they'll spend it in these uncertain times remains to be seen. But whatever amount consumers do spend on Christmas this year, making sure some of it goes to the small businesses throughout the region is the best way to support the local economy.
"People tell me all the time that Keller's is an institution in this town and that it could never close," said Keller. "But our vendors are telling us a lot of stories about stores closing."
That's why during this most-important of holiday shopping seasons, the essential element in valley stores is you -- the shopper -- carrying lots and lots of packages.
This columist writes the local "business beat" column in our local newspaper and is always touting some new business.
While what he says is true, if people don't spend at the local retailers, they may not be here next year, consumer confidence is WAY down here.
Our local unemployment rate is around 12% and does not look like it will get better anytime soon.
Almost everyone we know as severely scaled back their X-mas shopping plans.
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