With AMD's Ryzen + Vega, and Intel's CPUs + Vega, what's left for nvidia?

[piesquared]

Seems to me these new CPUs with Vega either fused internally or connected on package is going to hit Nv hard. They will cover all the way from the low range to the mid range, will be cheaper, will use less power, and much simpler for OEMs to impliment, so where does that leave Nviida??? Low to mid is a huge share of the market, that NV simply can not do without, which will belong to AMD thanks to their own Ryzen APUs and semi custom Vega + intel design.

 

[happy medium]

Nvidia will just go bankrupt and give up. They have no future in the gpu business.

Is this a serious question your asking?

Think of it this way, Nvidia' s low end this year will be faster than any Intel/Amd graphics chips.
The Amd graphics on the Intel chip are about 25% as fast as a
gtx1070.
That's about as fast as last years gtx1050 .
This years gtx2050 will be close to a gtx1060 3gb performance.
This should put Nvidia's ultra low end 15 watt gt2030 , on par with today's gtx1050 performance.

 

[prtskg]

Sure Nvidia will lose quite a lot of sales. But they still have iron grip on high end discrete graphics card market. Compute field is also in their grip. I don't see any problem for Nvidia in short term.

 

[DaveSimmons]

nvidia dominates the $80 - $1,000 market, and AMD's CES announcements show that they will not have Navi until some time in 2019: https://www.anandtech.com/show/1223...ealed-with-ryzen-apus-zen-on-12nm-vega-on-7nm

So, nvidia might lose some $50 card sales to Ryzen APUs, but that depends on the pricing of these chips. If the intel one is like Iris Pro and a high-end niche part mostly for Apple use then it will have no effect even on low-end card sales.

 

[happy medium]

Sure Nvidia will lose quite a lot of sales. But they still have iron grip on high end discrete graphics card market. Compute field is also in their grip. I don't see any problem for Nvidia in short term.

Nvidia has an iron grip on lower end , mid range , and the high end.

What's Nvidia releasing this year?
At least a 25% increase in performance across the board, with 35% power reductions.

Vs.

Basically no competition.

 

[prtskg]

Nvidia has an iron grip on lower end , mid range , and the high end.

What's Nvidia releasing this year?
At least a 25% increase in performance across the board, with 35% power reductions.

Vs.

Basically no competition.

Not so sure about iron grip on low and mid range.

 

[PeterScott]

Seems to me these new CPUs with Vega either fused internally or connected on package is going to hit Nv hard. They will cover all the way from the low range to the mid range, will be cheaper, will use less power, and much simpler for OEMs to impliment, so where does that leave Nviida??? Low to mid is a huge share of the market, that NV simply can not do without, which will belong to AMD thanks to their own Ryzen APUs and semi custom Vega + intel design.

This isn't a lockout. I bet there will still be more Laptops sold with Intel CPU and NVidia graphics, than with AMD graphics.

Plus this is likely going into $1000 laptops. NVidia competes below that point, at that point, and over that point.

Don't get carried away with what is mostly marketing noise.

 

[happy medium]

Not so sure about iron grip on low and mid range.

Ok....at least an aluminum grip.

 

[beginner99]

The Intel + nv dGPU will almost certainly be cheaper simply due to the HBM2 memory.

Mobile Volta however is still pretty far away so yeah nv could loose some sales but in a low margin area. I doubt they are all that much about.

 

[kondziowy]

Radeon is everywhere now. Nvidia must retain performance advantage in high end PC's and stay on top to survive.

 

[LTC8K6]

Well, the Intel chips will have the performance hit since they are 8th gen core chips. It may be small, but it's there.

Nv will certainly make an effort to compete with the APUs if they show signs of taking market share.
There is room for Nv to drop 1050 prices if need be, or maybe make a 1040 series.

There's a "512" hole in the low end lineup.

I think overall, the dgpu will still be the way to go.

 

[piesquared]

Sure Nvidia will lose quite a lot of sales. But they still have iron grip on high end discrete graphics card market. Compute field is also in their grip. I don't see any problem for Nvidia in short term.

Yes probably. It's the volume markets that now seem to have much better alternatives than what nvidia can offer. Really, Kaby Lake + Vega probably isn't going to do much damage given it's price, but Ryzen APUs and Vega M can eat up a lot of sales, as can KL and Vega M. Given the new partnership with intel i would expect AMD GPUs getting back to or at least a lot closer to their volume of GPUs in intel products during pre AMD/ATi merger days. Vega M with HBM2 has the same Z height as the KL G package with almost certainly more performance so there is a very good chance that intel will be using Vega M in many of their other designs as well.

 

[sandorski]

How it affects NVidia remains to be seen, however, I think AMD will receive a decent return on their Vega investment.

 

[Yakk]

Radeon is eveywhere now. Nvidia must retain performance advantage in high end PC's and stay on top to survive.

Indeed, Radeon is doing the grunt work with hardware & software developers it should've continued 10+ years ago. It's not short term flashy or presentation worthy (yet), it's a long term strategy which was imo needed to survive & thrive. Now they do need to have stock available though. Now, if Microsoft, Apple, and Intel are taking up all the inventory AMD can produce, then AMD needs to step up their engineering & fabrication agreements to scale properly, which they didn't seem to do properly yet.

 

[prtskg]

Indeed, Radeon is doing the grunt work with hardware & software developers it should've continued 10+ years ago. It's not short term flashy or presentation worthy (yet), it's a long term strategy which was imo needed to survive & thrive. Now they do need to have stock available though. Now, if Microsoft, Apple, and Intel are taking up all the inventory AMD can produce, then AMD needs to step up their engineering & fabrication agreements to scale properly, which they didn't seem to do properly yet.

Money is what has constrained AMD in 2017 and I think it'll continue in 2018 too. I'm not saying AMD is in serious cash crunch now but cash limitation of 2016 would effect AMD in 2018 too, like relatively weak graphics department. We already know in 2019, AMD will produce graphics card at TSMC. So probably GF will be free for cpu and apu and hopefully faster ramp up there.

 

[PeterScott]

Radeon is everywhere now. Nvidia must retain performance advantage in high end PC's and stay on top to survive.

I think you really need to put emoticons on comedy posts.

Survive? NVidia owns the dGPU gaming market, and GPU HPC Market.

This package is a novelty. We will see how it really performs when it is more than marketing, and how it is priced.

 

[piesquared]

I think you really need to put emoticons on comedy posts.

Survive? NVidia owns the dGPU gaming market, and GPU HPC Market.

This package is a novelty. We will see how it really performs when it is more than marketing, and how it is priced.

Because KL-G is priced high, but that's focusing on one single product. Ryzen APUs aren't a novelty, Vega M isn't a novelty. Those cover a wide range that AMD never covered for several years. That will certainly affect NV sales and volume. I believe his point was that with the low to mid range high volume market eroding for them they will need to retain the high margin low volume market.

 

[PeterScott]

Because KL-G is priced high, but that's focusing on one single product. Ryzen APUs aren't a novelty, Vega M isn't a novelty. Those cover a wide range that AMD never covered for several years. That will certainly affect NV sales and volume. I believe his point was that with the low to mid range high volume market eroding for them they will need to retain the high margin low volume market.

Ryzen APUs are really only a threat Intels IGP. Unless the mythical Big Gaming APU emerges from the shadows.

Ultimately AMD is getting more competitive. Which is good. But Neither NVidia, nor Intel are in any trouble. The market changes much slower than forum sentiment. If you look at Steam surveys, AMD didn't having a significant change in market share last year for gamers, despite all kinds of good CPU and GPU products.

Realistically this is first about AMD doing enough to survive, and hoping that NVidia/Intel don't drop bombshell products that knock the feet out from under them.

AMD is making steady progress. Let's hope it continues until they actually start gaining significant market share.

 

[Samwell]

AMD is making steady progress. Let's hope it continues until they actually start gaining significant market share.

In CPU space yes, but in graphics? They just gave up the whole desktop market till mid next year. These chips will gain marketshare in the notebookmarket, but without any new graphics card for consumers for more than a year they will loose all their marketshare which they gained back with polaris in desktop space. Maybe they're alright with it, because they are selling their GPUs anyway in the mining market. But i don't think it's a good situation for amd players, because devs on pc will take PC more and more as an Nv exclusive plattform and won't care so much for AMD optimization. AMDs luck is that they have the consoles, so parts of the code should already run good on amd hardware.

 

[LTC8K6]

If the APUs mine well, you may not be able to find them.

 

[piesquared]

Ryzen APUs are really only a threat Intels IGP. Unless the mythical Big Gaming APU emerges from the shadows.

Ultimately AMD is getting more competitive. Which is good. But Neither NVidia, nor Intel are in any trouble. The market changes much slower than forum sentiment. If you look at Steam surveys, AMD didn't having a significant change in market share last year for gamers, despite all kinds of good CPU and GPU products.

Realistically this is first about AMD doing enough to survive, and hoping that NVidia/Intel don't drop bombshell products that knock the feet out from under them.

AMD is making steady progress. Let's hope it continues until they actually start gaining significant market share.

Ryzen APUs with Vega are a threat to more than just intel IGPs especially in mobile which is the lions share of sales. Pair an HBM2 equipped Vega M with a Ryzen mobile 2700U APU and nothing will touch it's performance, particularly in DX12 titles where they can combine resources. In addition to intel's KL-G, the rest of the intel mobile line up will undoubtedly be paired with Vega M in many SKUs as well. Those are all lost NV sales, in which they had near exclusivity for many years.
I haven't looked at steam surveys since we learned that an intel APU paired with an AMD GPU was tabulated in the intel GPU column.
Ryzen desktop APUs will surely put a dent in at least the 1030. If the numbers for firestrike translate across most games, consumers won't need to add a discrete GPU. I would guess most consumers bought the 1030 because it was the next step up from the inadequate intel IGP that it was most likely paired with. With comparable performance to a 1030, the Ryzen 2400G APU can stand on it's own.

 

[raghu78]

Ryzen APUs with Vega are a threat to more than just intel IGPs especially in mobile which is the lions share of sales. Pair an HBM2 equipped Vega M with a Ryzen mobile 2700U APU and nothing will touch it's performance, particularly in DX12 titles where they can combine resources. In addition to intel's KL-G, the rest of the intel mobile line up will undoubtedly be paired with Vega M in many SKUs as well. Those are all lost NV sales, in which they had near exclusivity for many years.
I haven't looked at steam surveys since we learned that an intel APU paired with an AMD GPU was tabulated in the intel GPU column.
Ryzen desktop APUs will surely put a dent in at least the 1030. If the numbers for firestrike translate across most games, consumers won't need to add a discrete GPU. I would guess most consumers bought the 1030 because it was the next step up from the inadequate intel IGP that it was most likely paired with. With comparable performance to a 1030, the Ryzen 2400G APU can stand on it's own.

I have always maintained that the AMD APU is a disruptive product. Whats holding back the APU from cannibalizing the dGPU market and obsoleting the 100 sq mm dGPU is lack of High Bandwidth memory. At the 7nm generation I think all AMD APUs will ship with HBM on package. Nvidia has roughly 2 years before they start losing a significant volume of their GPU business. Intel Kaby G wil have some impact on Nvidia notebook GPU sales and should help AMD with some low margin semi custom revenue which would otherwise have gone to Nvidia as high margin notebook GPU sales. Eventually Intel will integrate their own dGPU when its ready in a few years time. For AMD they are laying down the groundwork for eventual mass market APUs with HBM2 sometime in 2020. There is a rumoured AMD APU with a Vega 28CU GPU in a single die expected to launch in 2018. But I still think it will take a couple of years before packaging and memory technology become mature and are cost effective for high volume mainstream APUs.

 

[PeterScott]

Ryzen APUs with Vega are a threat to more than just intel IGPs especially in mobile which is the lions share of sales. Pair an HBM2 equipped Vega M with a Ryzen mobile 2700U APU and nothing will touch it's performance, particularly in DX12 titles where they can combine resources.

You are moving the goal posts. You are talking about the APU, then you include the Vega M. I am sure Vega M will trade blows with Mobile 1050/1060, but you shouldn't go racing to dominance on a couple of marketing slides.

Also NVidia's Pascal Lineup is almost 2 years old. If you think they won't have something to beat Pascal in 2018, you are dreaming.

 

[piesquared]

You are moving the goal posts. You are talking about the APU, then you include the Vega M. I am sure Vega M will trade blows with Mobile 1050/1060, but you shouldn't go racing to dominance on a couple of marketing slides.

Also NVidia's Pascal Lineup is almost 2 years old. If you think they won't have something to beat Pascal in 2018, you are dreaming.

I'm not. Ryzen + Vega and KL + Vega include APUs and Vega M.

 

[LightningZ71]

In the desktop market, I don't think that there will be a lot of change. AMD has the R5 and R3 G series chips that will be a step up from Intel in the i3/i5 range, but won't really make a noticeable difference in Nvidia's current market on the bottom end (they don't really compete there, save for certain specialty uses). In the mid level market, you're still targeting PCIe cards, and Nvidia is well covered in that market. This also includes the high end. The AMD APUs will offer some flexibility in the low end of the market for OEMs and custom builders, but that was never a focus for NVidia in the first place.

In the laptop market, you've got the sub $350 market for low end thin and light or traditional form factor units. There, Intel and AMD compete with bottom of the stack parts, like the A series APUs, Atom core celerons and pentiums, and the occasional end of life i3. AMD will have a product refresh there with the R3-U series, but the performance there will be highly hobbled by single channel memory, vastly fewer CUs, etc. In the $350-$600 segment, Intel has a bunch of i3 and i5 products, a few with very low end Nvidia products. AMD has higher end APUs in the A series. The R3-U will be present here, as well as a few R5-U products. The R5-U will be able to replace a good chunk of intel-Nvidia low end dGPU products, but not for a while as the eco-system there is built up and the channel gets filled. This is at least a year from being an issue. Nvidia can derail a lot of that by just lowering the price or increasing the performance of their products in that segment as those products are already engineered and built and there is momentum in that space. As you move up market, there is still room between $600-$900 for Nvidia to sell a lot of product into. AMD has the RX550 mobile for that space, but Nvidia can decide to offer more value there at will. The R7-U APU can't get performance that high in any form and would only be used where compactness is preferred and bleeding edge GPU performance isn't a concern. While that is still a non-trivial portion of the market, it's not going to have a lot of effect. Above that, you're getting into low volume, high end products. There, Nvidia will compete with the Vega-M HBM dGPU products and Intel KL-G. For larger form factors, Nvidia will still have better top end performance. It's the smaller form factors where the improved power profiles and smaller physical size of AMDs products will have an impact. Imagine having high end GPU performance in something as thin and light as a surface book or Mac Powerbook? Will buyers choose to spend a bit more to get what is essentially a large thin and light that has the GPU muscle to play AAA titles at 2K or 4K? I'm sure some will, but, I don't know if the whole market would shift in that direction. Nvidia can also provide another performance/power bump for their existing mobile high end GPU product to make it more attractive.

Where AMD could have the biggest impact on the market is by making the R7-U available in the $500-$700 laptop price range with nicely specced laptops that can basically do most everything that most users need. It needs to have a thunderbolt port that can use an external GPU enclosure that can be used by a user that might want to have the best available game or professional graphics performance only sometimes, but not necessarily need it while on the go (or can tolerate passable, but not spectacular performance while mobile). Not everyone needs a thin and light, but a decently compact laptop that offers that kind of flexibility in a reasonable price range would get a LOT of buyers.