Will Trump fire Jeff Sessions on November 7th?

[fskimospy]

Yes very true. I personally think there is a real strong chance they’ll keep both houses. Democrats aren’t particularly good at getting out to vote lately and historically aren’t good in non presidential elections.
Honestly Trump would have a strong point to say that it’s the will of the people to end the Mueller investigation.

I think Democrats are fine in non-presidential elections. If you look at the last say, 30 years, it's the party of the president that usually does poorly in the midterms. There are two exceptions to this but both seemed to be the results of unique circumstances. (disgust at Republicans for impeaching Clinton and the aftermath of 9/11/runup to Iraq). I think we shouldn't let the fact that Clinton lost despite being favored color our perceptions too much, although I guess it depends on what you mean by 'strong chance'. I think the Democrats should be strongly favored to win at least the House but I agree that it's far from certain.

If Republicans do hold the House though I strongly disagree that it will be a strong point to say ending the investigation is the will of the people. In most scenarios going forward we have the Democrats winning the House by 6+ points. As a point of comparison the 'landslide' Republican victory of the 2010 midterms was a victory of 6.8 points. So basically what we would have was an electoral 'mandate' similar in size to the 2010 Republican victory but due to the map being rigged by both natural and political factors the numbers that equal a colossal win for the Republicans could yield a modest loss for the Democrats. Whatever that is it's not the will of the people.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

I think Democrats are fine in non-presidential elections. If you look at the last say, 30 years, it's the party of the president that usually does poorly in the midterms. There are two exceptions to this but both seemed to be the results of unique circumstances. (disgust at Republicans for impeaching Clinton and the aftermath of 9/11/runup to Iraq). I think we shouldn't let the fact that Clinton lost despite being favored color our perceptions too much, although I guess it depends on what you mean by 'strong chance'. I think the Democrats should be strongly favored to win at least the House but I agree that it's far from certain.

If Republicans do hold the House though I strongly disagree that it will be a strong point to say ending the investigation is the will of the people. In most scenarios going forward we have the Democrats winning the House by 6+ points. As a point of comparison the 'landslide' Republican victory of the 2010 midterms was a victory of 6.8 points. So basically what we would have was an electoral 'mandate' similar in size to the 2010 Republican victory but due to the map being rigged by both natural and political factors the numbers that equal a colossal win for the Republicans could yield a modest loss for the Democrats. Whatever that is it's not the will of the people.

Again I’m with you however look at the polls in 2016. We Democrats aren’t good at organizing & voting consistently (as a group). I hope I’m wrong but I can easily imagine a 50-50 House and Pence casting a lot of votes. Senate is close to impossible to get a majority in at the moment.
Again I want to be wrong but I am concerned.

 

[fskimospy]

Again I’m with you however look at the polls in 2016. We Democrats aren’t good at organizing & voting consistently (as a group). I hope I’m wrong but I can easily imagine a 50-50 House and Pence casting a lot of votes. Senate is close to impossible to get a majority in at the moment.
Again I want to be wrong but I am concerned.

The polls in 2016 were quite accurate overall, the issue there was that polling aggregators (except for 538) thought polling errors were independent when they were not. Also, it may comfort you to learn that in 2006 around this time the generic congressional ballot was even. Past performance/future results of course, but it's an encouraging sign.

Also, Pence would cast tiebreaking votes in the Senate and the House has an odd number of members so whatever happens there it won't be 50-50, haha.

 

[fskimospy]

Thanks for an honest answer. In my opinion, the risk of Trump remaining president is a non-starter. We're talking about a man with the power and lack of internal restraint to start a war on a whim. I don't think he'll go that far but destroying the DOJ, the regulatory structure, the rule of law itself as it relates to the Executive Branch is well along. Allowing a would-be tyrant who cannot be contained seems to be the worst of all possible choice. Chamberlain pales in comparison to those who permit it, well IMO.

I agree that the most important thing is that Trump is removed from office due to the damage he's doing to our system of government as we're very quickly changing from a system of laws to a system of men.

That's kind of what I was hinting at though. Trump is a cancer on our government, what do you sacrifice to bring him to justice? For example, what if he said today, right now, he would resign if he and his associates were immunized from prosecution. Would you take that? The alternative is he stays in office and tries to burn it all down.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Democrats aren’t particularly good at getting out to vote lately and historically aren’t good in non presidential elections.

Two things need to happen for the Democrats to remain relevant over the next 6 years. One is they need to take the house. At this moment the traditionally poor turnout looks to be improved enough to do that.

If they lose then I believe two things will happen. The Democrats of old will be effectively dead to the nation, it's just how long the collective leadership's political nervous system takes to realize it. Feinstein-like candidates, Schumer, Pelosi et. al. with have reached such a state of irrelevance that they must make way for the Progressives, another critter indeed.

If they win and do not get Trump out then we have the same result with the current leadership and party old guard revealed as ineffectual. An internal revolt isn't out of the question.

If the Dems win AND remove Trump then a momentum builds towards 2020 in the Dems favor, providing they don't screw things up royally in the name of politics.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

I agree that the most important thing is that Trump is removed from office due to the damage he's doing to our system of government as we're very quickly changing from a system of laws to a system of men.

That's kind of what I was hinting at though. Trump is a cancer on our government, what do you sacrifice to bring him to justice? For example, what if he said today, right now, he would resign if he and his associates were immunized from prosecution. Would you take that? The alternative is he stays in office and tries to burn it all down.

I would not like it at all, but I would accept that, realizing that his legal jeopardy and those around him are not over. I refer to Barbara Underwood and those like her in NY. Cuomo of course can screw that up but at this instant in time NY seems to be a greater material threat than DC. Leaving a malignant narcissistic fascist in power? No.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Regarding NY, this just popped up on my feeds.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politi...bankrolled-political-campaign-pursues-lawsuit

✕

PBS NEWSHOUR ›
New York’s attorney general says Trump Foundation bankrolled political campaign, pursues lawsuit
ASSOCIATED PRESS AUGUST 31, 2018

NEW YORK — Lawyers for President Donald Trump asked a judge to dismiss a lawsuit brought against his charitable foundation by New York’s attorney general, arguing that it was politically motivated.

In the motion Thursday, Trump attorney Alan S. Futerfas argued that former New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman “made it his stated mission to ‘lead the resistance’ and attack Mr. Trump whenever possible” and “used his public antipathy for Mr. Trump to solicit donations for his own re-election campaign and advance his career interests and aspirations.”

Trump very publicly announced his intention to dissolve the foundation and donate all of its remaining funds to charity, but the AG “actively stonewalled dissolution,” Futerfas wrote.

“At the same time, the NYAG turned a blind eye to serious and significant allegations of misconduct involving the Clinton Foundation, including claims that it, and its subsidiaries, violated New York law by failing to disclose $225 million in donations from foreign governments,” Futerfas wrote.

Schneiderman began investigating the Trump Foundation in 2016 following Washington Post reports that its spending personally benefited the presidential candidate. Schneiderman ordered the foundation to stop fundraising in New York.

Schneiderman resigned in May after allegations that he physically abused women he had dated; he denied the claims.

His successor, Democratic Attorney General Barbara Underwood, filed the lawsuit in June, claiming the Trump Foundation “was little more than a checkbook for payments from Mr. Trump or his businesses to nonprofits, regardless of their purpose or legality.” The suit seeks $2.8 million in restitution and the foundation’s disbandment.

The filing said Underwood continued the “inflammatory rhetoric, stating publicly that she considers her battles with the President ‘the most important work (she) has ever done’ and has vowed that such ‘work will continue.'”

Trump’s lawyers also argued that several impermissible donations by the foundation were due to clerical errors and were all corrected when brought to the attention of foundation officials.

In a statement Thursday, the attorney general’s office said it won’t back down from “holding Trump and his associates accountable for their flagrant violations of New York law.”

“As our lawsuit detailed, the Trump Foundation functioned as a personal piggy bank to serve Trump’s business and political interests,” the statement said.

">
NEW YORK — Lawyers for President Donald Trump asked a judge to dismiss a lawsuit brought against his charitable foundation by New York’s attorney general, arguing that it was politically motivated.

In the motion Thursday, Trump attorney Alan S. Futerfas argued that former New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman “made it his stated mission to ‘lead the resistance’ and attack Mr. Trump whenever possible” and “used his public antipathy for Mr. Trump to solicit donations for his own re-election campaign and advance his career interests and aspirations.”

Trump very publicly announced his intention to dissolve the foundation and donate all of its remaining funds to charity, but the AG “actively stonewalled dissolution,” Futerfas wrote.

“At the same time, the NYAG turned a blind eye to serious and significant allegations of misconduct involving the Clinton Foundation, including claims that it, and its subsidiaries, violated New York law by failing to disclose $225 million in donations from foreign governments,” Futerfas wrote.

Schneiderman began investigating the Trump Foundation in 2016 following Washington Post reports that its spending personally benefited the presidential candidate. Schneiderman ordered the foundation to stop fundraising in New York.

Schneiderman resigned in May after allegations that he physically abused women he had dated; he denied the claims.

His successor, Democratic Attorney General Barbara Underwood, filed the lawsuit in June, claiming the Trump Foundation “was little more than a checkbook for payments from Mr. Trump or his businesses to nonprofits, regardless of their purpose or legality.” The suit seeks $2.8 million in restitution and the foundation’s disbandment.

The filing said Underwood continued the “inflammatory rhetoric, stating publicly that she considers her battles with the President ‘the most important work (she) has ever done’ and has vowed that such ‘work will continue.'”

Trump’s lawyers also argued that several impermissible donations by the foundation were due to clerical errors and were all corrected when brought to the attention of foundation officials.

In a statement Thursday, the attorney general’s office said it won’t back down from “holding Trump and his associates accountable for their flagrant violations of New York law.”

“As our lawsuit detailed, the Trump Foundation functioned as a personal piggy bank to serve Trump’s business and political interests,” the statement said.

This is merely a civil suit but that's likely a prelude to criminal charges once Trump is no longer immune to state prosecution. It's still going to hurt and prosecuting civil and criminal actions against the Foundation and Trump Organization if it doesn't involve Trump personally, they still apply to his family and Trump has no recorse.

 

[Jhhnn]

Futerfas & his client are in deep doo-doo if he used the "But Hillary!" argument in a court filing. It's completely irrelevant to the issues at hand. I don't believe "They're just as bad!" & "So biased!" are arguments that will hold up in court. Futerfas will have to do a whole lot better than that if he is to prevail.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Futerfas & his client are in deep doo-doo if he used the "But Hillary!" argument in a court filing. It's completely irrelevant to the issues at hand. I don't believe "They're just as bad!" & "So biased!" are arguments that will hold up in court. Futerfas will have to do a whole lot better than that if he is to prevail.

If you haven't you should look up Underwoods CV. I'm not easily impressed, but the classic second-grade teacher looking AG is impressive. Most impressive.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

So surreal how essential everything Trump accused Hillary of doing, he was actively doing when he made the claim.

 

[Jhhnn]

So surreal how essential everything Trump accused Hillary of doing, he was actively doing when he made the claim.

It's like this-

 

[sactoking]

Futerfas & his client are in deep doo-doo if he used the "But Hillary!" argument in a court filing. It's completely irrelevant to the issues at hand. I don't believe "They're just as bad!" & "So biased!" are arguments that will hold up in court. Futerfas will have to do a whole lot better than that if he is to prevail.

What you're referencing is part of the legal principle of equitable estoppel. Basically if you have a legal claim to something and fail to consistently enforce it you may be estopped from enforcing it at all. Since the AG's office isn't enforcing the law against the Clinton Foundation the claim is they're estopped from enforcing the law against the Trump Foundation.

Equitable estoppel generally does not apply to governments.

 

[Jhhnn]

What you're referencing is part of the legal principle of equitable estoppel. Basically if you have a legal claim to something and fail to consistently enforce it you may be estopped from enforcing it at all. Since the AG's office isn't enforcing the law against the Clinton Foundation the claim is they're estopped from enforcing the law against the Trump Foundation.

Equitable estoppel generally does not apply to governments.

Not really-

https://definitions.uslegal.com/e/equitable-estoppel/

Futerfas isn't really addressing the court at all with such remarks but rather playing to the base with the But Hillary! card. I mean, you know, Trump can't be prosecuted because she's not being prosecuted & she's just as bad. Or something, anything to put the heat somewhere not on his client. It's completely specious & I'm sure the court will recognize it as such. Might get a good laugh out of it, however.

 

[Engineer]

At this point, probably.....as the rage builds.


https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/03/politics/donald-trump-jeff-sessions-justice-department/index.html

 

[Puffnstuff]

At this point, probably.....as the rage builds.


https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/03/politics/donald-trump-jeff-sessions-justice-department/index.html

This is probably the setup for the base to support the action.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

I guess it would have been more appropriate to let these guys get re-elected, then arrest them so the gop could keep the seats?

Party of law and order indeed.

 

[K1052]

Not every day that a POTUS bashes his own AG for not nakedly politicizing the Justice Department on his behalf.

 

[VRAMdemon]

Trump - : "Two long running, Obama era, investigations of two very popular Republican Congressmen were brought to a well publicized charge, just ahead of the Mid-Terms, by the Jeff Sessions Justice Department," Trump tweeted. "Two easy wins now in doubt because there is not enough time. Good job Jeff..."

Translation - Not my fault if the GOP loses the House!

 

[fskimospy]

Not every day that a POTUS bashes his own AG for not nakedly politicizing the Justice Department on his behalf.

That’s the most surprising thing to me about the Trump presidency. It’s not that he’s corrupt, we all knew that going in. It’s that he is this nakedly corrupt and Republicans still won’t do anything. In a sane world this should lead to the complete destruction of the Republican Party. They are actively enabling corruption and they aren’t even hiding it.

I guess this is where the ‘I’d rather be a Russian than a Democrat’ T-shirts come in. They have become so obsessed with hatred for their imagined domestic enemies that it’s all that matters to them anymore.

 

[Jhhnn]

At this point, probably.....as the rage builds.


https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/03/politics/donald-trump-jeff-sessions-justice-department/index.html

Trump would invoke a Saturday night massacre scenario in firing Sessions. He'd better be prepared to go to war with Congress.

 

[K1052]

That’s the most surprising thing to me about the Trump presidency. It’s not that he’s corrupt, we all knew that going in. It’s that he is this nakedly corrupt and Republicans still won’t do anything. In a sane world this should lead to the complete destruction of the Republican Party. They are actively enabling corruption and they aren’t even hiding it.

I guess this is where the ‘I’d rather be a Russian than a Democrat’ T-shirts come in. They have become so obsessed with hatred for their imagined domestic enemies that it’s all that matters to them anymore.

The reckoning may still be coming. Most of the Republican political and policy goals don't align with the voters at large and people appear more engaged this cycle plus skepticism/dislike of Trump among important blocs has increased dramatically. Generic ballot gap is yawning to a double digit D advantage again and anything more than 6 or 7 points is fatal to the GOP majority.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Trump would invoke a Saturday night massacre scenario in firing Sessions. He'd better be prepared to go to war with Congress.

Meh, Sessions biggest supporter Graham recently said Sessions shou,d be out after the election.

 

[VRAMdemon]

Meh, Sessions biggest supporter Graham recently said Sessions shou,d be out after the election.

Yeah..I think Sessions sees himself as a martyr, tolerating his abuse and persecution in exchanging for bringing back as much Jim Crow as he can before he is fired.

In Trump's fantasy world, when Sessions is asked to describe his job, the correct response is: "To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their voters! Because as we all know, the Attorney General's main job is to persecute the President's political enemies and protect the President's political allies. I feel certain it spells that out somewhere in the Constitution.

 

[K1052]

In Trump's fantasy world, when Sessions is asked to describe his job, the correct response is: "To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their voters! Because as we all know, the Attorney General's main job is to persecute the President's political enemies and protect the President's political allies. I feel certain it spells that out somewhere in the Constitution.

For Trump there is only what you can do not what you should do and the presumption that everyone else also views/interacts with the world that way.

The concept that some people might have motivations and principles beyond that is literally incomprehensible to him.

 

[fskimospy]

Yeah..I think Sessions sees himself as a martyr, tolerating his abuse and persecution in exchanging for bringing back as much Jim Crow as he can before he is fired.

In Trump's fantasy world, when Sessions is asked to describe his job, the correct response is: "To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their voters! Because as we all know, the Attorney General's main job is to persecute the President's political enemies and protect the President's political allies. I feel certain it spells that out somewhere in the Constitution.

I really wonder what Sessions is thinking as it’s reasonably likely he could be indicted for perjury as well.