I don't think McCain can statistically not get the nomination at this point, but if Obama takes Ohio/Texas/Vermont 2:1 tomorrow will it be decided?
Will tomorrow decide both parties?
- Thread starter Stiganator
- Start date
Many news stories report that Hitlery plans to continue her campaign past the 4 March 2008 primaries. Don't know if it's true. Guess we'll find out Wednesday.
the republican side is already decided... Huckabee could win 100% of the vote in every remaining state and still lose.
on the democratic side... I don't know. I think if Hillary wins Ohio and Texas, I think she'll have a case to make by pointing to her wins in almost every major state and claiming the results show that democrats are still unsure about Obama.
if Hillary loses both, though, it's over.
on the democratic side... I don't know. I think if Hillary wins Ohio and Texas, I think she'll have a case to make by pointing to her wins in almost every major state and claiming the results show that democrats are still unsure about Obama.
if Hillary loses both, though, it's over.
I don't think it will decide the Democratic side of things. The problem is that Democratic delegates are not winner takes all, so winning a state doesn't count for much...it's all about how MUCH you win by. This is particularly true in Texas where votes are split on a district level, quite often the delegate count will be tied unless one candidate has a HUGE majority (because delegates don't like getting split in half). I think Obama will pull ahead, but there is virtually no way he locks it up. But Hillary is staking a lot on the outcome of tomorrow. If she ends up getting the short end of the stick, she's going to look like she lost even if she is still in the race. I imagine a poor showing tomorrow will result in some calls from Democratic leadership for Hillary to concede the race to Obama. But wouldn't it be interesting if we went into the actual convention not knowing who the Democrats were going to nominate?
I'd like to avoid thinking like a party strategist, but I think that kind of race, while bad for certain reasons, would make a great talking point for the Democratic vs Republican contest in general this election season. It would be very easy to spin it as the Democrats having two great candidates, so good that they just can't decide between the two, and by the way, notice how both of them are groundbreakers in the race for this particular office. Contrast that with a mediocre Republican field, so devoid of solid candidates that the best they can dig up is an old white guy who was a second choice to Bush in 2000. I'm not saying this is fair or accurate, but it might make a good campaign approach.
I'd like to avoid thinking like a party strategist, but I think that kind of race, while bad for certain reasons, would make a great talking point for the Democratic vs Republican contest in general this election season. It would be very easy to spin it as the Democrats having two great candidates, so good that they just can't decide between the two, and by the way, notice how both of them are groundbreakers in the race for this particular office. Contrast that with a mediocre Republican field, so devoid of solid candidates that the best they can dig up is an old white guy who was a second choice to Bush in 2000. I'm not saying this is fair or accurate, but it might make a good campaign approach.
The media has been eating up the Clinton message lately, letting her get away with this momentum bullshit even though Obama has gained 10+ points in both states in just weeks. It started as 'How much will Obama lose by?' and now it is some kind of epic toss-up that Clinton will still likely win, except now she gets the credit for some amazing comeback.
With that said, the math still doesn't add up. My prediction is her spin worked and allows her to stay in with two wins tomorrow, but she still has no real path to the nomination. Obama makes a semi-concession speech where he sums up the delegate and popular vote situation and basically says "I am now the nominee," though he won't say that explicitly he will strongly imply it.
Disregard what candidates actually say about their intentions to stay in the race. They always say they're in it for the duration, look at Edwards. If she loses both she will concede, I'd hope if she loses one she would too.
Give me a break on the predictions I've never been so specific with them and want to see how they turn out
With that said, the math still doesn't add up. My prediction is her spin worked and allows her to stay in with two wins tomorrow, but she still has no real path to the nomination. Obama makes a semi-concession speech where he sums up the delegate and popular vote situation and basically says "I am now the nominee," though he won't say that explicitly he will strongly imply it.
Disregard what candidates actually say about their intentions to stay in the race. They always say they're in it for the duration, look at Edwards. If she loses both she will concede, I'd hope if she loses one she would too.
Give me a break on the predictions I've never been so specific with them and want to see how they turn out
maybe it's just an incompatible worldview, but statements like "there's no conservative running, so let's go vote for the most liberal guy in the race" confuse the hell out of me.
Obama's momentum has peaked. Hillary will win Ohio and Texas tomorrow and she will have every right to continue. Her victories tomorrow will also give her a boost for upcoming primaries.
Obama will win TX by a 55-45 margin, give or take. The caucus delegates, I give the edge there to Obama as well. He'll squash Clinton like a bug in VT. She is not well liked there, and that's putting it mildly. Sentiment towards Gov. Dean vs. DLC (Clinton) animosity.
OH goes to Clinton by a small margin, and RI by 55-45 or so.
Clinton gains nothing (at best) and deepens her deficit (at worst). The Delegate math gets worse for her coming out of of tomorrow, because she'll need greater margins out of fewer contests, though if she wins OH she can claim momentum towards her side.
If she wins TX, I'll eat my hat. Because I just don't think she will.
OH goes to Clinton by a small margin, and RI by 55-45 or so.
Clinton gains nothing (at best) and deepens her deficit (at worst). The Delegate math gets worse for her coming out of of tomorrow, because she'll need greater margins out of fewer contests, though if she wins OH she can claim momentum towards her side.
If she wins TX, I'll eat my hat. Because I just don't think she will.
rockyct
Diamond Member
- Jun 23, 2001
- 6,656
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My prediction: less than five point win in Texas for Obama, but picks up more delegates than the margin would indicate. Clinton wins Ohio by 8 points, but Obama still gets a slight net gain of delegates from the night. Hillary initially claims victory and vows to press on. However, Obama's going to crush her in Mississippi and Wyoming within the week, which will be enough for the super delegates to start flooding toward Obama just to end it. After that, the next primary is Penn on April 22. The super delegates are NOT going to let it still play out over a month from today.
Unless Clinton gets crushed in Ohio and Texas, she'll claim momentum and will try to keep going. Pretty soon though, the super delegates will start to move to wrap it up. I guess that will be one benefit of the super delegates.
Unless Clinton gets crushed in Ohio and Texas, she'll claim momentum and will try to keep going. Pretty soon though, the super delegates will start to move to wrap it up. I guess that will be one benefit of the super delegates.
Mark my words, Texas is going to be like CA, where polls had Obama up but Clinton won handily. She won't win by as much as she did in CA, but she will win.
Hayabusa Rider
Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
- Jan 26, 2000
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Remember that in TX urban areas (where Obama is stronger) have more delegates per voter than the more sparsely populated areas where Hillary is strong. It's delegates which count, so she may win more votes, but still lose.
jonks
Lifer
- Feb 7, 2005
- 13,918
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Ron Paul won just under half his party's delegates, popular vote, and 8 of the 10 largest states and raised $35 million last month? He did better than I thought!
That's a silly comparison.
For the record, I think TX and OH are too close to make predictions with any certainty, but TX will go Rep in the general anyway. OH is more important.
StageLeft
No Lifer
- Sep 29, 2000
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The comparison is of hearts. Even when Hillary has been stepped on and lost time and time again, her loyal fanboys go on as if it's meaningless and her nomination has never been in question. Which it has been, and now very much is. She will need to pull a rabbit out of a hat to get it now. She is very much on her back foot and about to topple irrevocably. On the off chance she does, I'm pre-empting now by saying that my predictions of gloom are somewhat hyperbolic, but the content of my message is still clear that she will not get it and it's Obama's
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