Will Nvidia's 6xx series, be Cypress Vs Fermi again?

[Arkadrel]

from Faudzilla:

We got word that Kepler, Nvidia's successor to Fermi architecture and its first 28nm part won’t launch until Q1 2012.

Our sources from the Far East are telling us that it’s the maturity of the 28nm process is to blame and that the chip could theoretically make it to very late Q4 2011 launch, but sources close to company are telling them that it would not make much sense to launch it that late in the quarter.

ATI is still on schedule to launch its 28nm chip in 2011, other sources are telling us, and ATI’s chip will be affected by the same issues, mainly the poor yields of the 28nm process. Even if ATI launches in 2011, very late Q3 or first half of Q4 2011 were the dates that we’ve heard, the chip wont really be massively available until some point in 2012.

Transitioning to a new process in the graphics word is always painful, and it took TSMC a lot to go from 65nm to 40nm and now, they are again faced with a difficult transition to 28nm and bad yields for quarters to come.

So basically ATI isnt haveing the same amount of problems nvidia is with the process, and are gonna have next gen chips out Q3 2011, while Nvidia is gonna be Q1 2012.

Does that mean AMD/ATI's GPUs might be out ~5 months ahead again? (and have christmas sales)
Giveing us another Cypress VS Fermi?

Those that got a 5870 early, might recall that the 480 was around 10% faster, but it arrived around half a year lateron than the 5870 (and ran kinda hot, and noisy).

With Crysis2 getting a DX11 patch, and BF3/MW3 comeing out soon...
Do any of you guys think this will hurt nvidia if their late again?

 

[Carfax83]

This is why I will never buy first round again.. I made that mistake with the GTX 480 and came away disappointed. Luckily I was able to sell my 480s and buy a couple of superclocked 580s from a friend in need for 400 a piece, and let me tell you, the 580s are much better cards.

So I'm going to wait until the inevitable respin before I jump on the Kepler bandwagon.

 

[AnandThenMan]

This is why I will never buy first round again.. I made that mistake with the GTX 480 and came away disappointed.

I bought a 5870 (eventually another one) and was very happy with them. Still have them, great cards and have held up very well as far as performance goes. So I didn't feel burned by being a "first round" buyer. Fermi was a bit of an anomaly as far as Nvidia goes, it was desperately in need of a respin. I can only think of one other time where this happened to such an extreme with an Nvidia product.

As for Fudzilla, they have mastered the art of obfuscation. They took it to silly extremes with Fermi, I don't take much of anything posted there seriously.

 

[magomago]

is GF going to be doing anything, or are they tied up with Bulldozer for the forseeable future?

 

[Saico]

Meh, Kepler just taped out. There is no way they could launch it in the next 6 months.

 

[Arkadrel]

The thing is.... the 7970 is probably gonna be like 40% faster than a 580.

What happends to the 580? nvidias top of the line card, for the next 5-6 months, before it has a card out to match the 7970?

With popular games releaseing like MW3 and BF3? and crysis2 haveing gotten that DX11 patch. Not even to mention Nvidia missing the "christmas" sales.

Nvidia sales are gonna take a turn from this no?
and prices on the 580 will drop like a brick (so buying one now is not a good idea, give it a month or two and you ll save a small fortune).

 

[DeathReborn]

from Faudzilla:

So basically ATI isnt haveing the same amount of problems nvidia is with the process, and are gonna have next gen chips out Q3 2011, while Nvidia is gonna be Q1 2012.

Does that mean AMD/ATI's GPUs might be out ~5 months ahead again? (and have christmas sales)
Giveing us another Cypress VS Fermi?

Those that got a 5870 early, might recall that the 480 was around 10% faster, but it arrived around half a year lateron than the 5870 (and ran kinda hot, and noisy).

With Crysis2 getting a DX11 patch, and BF3/MW3 comeing out soon...
Do any of you guys think this will hurt nvidia if their late again?

I actually read that as they both face the same issues but earlier tapeout + likelier smaller chip makes it less risky for AMD to release in 2011. We'll probably see nVidia launch end of January or eraly February. Either way neither will be in any quantity until 2012, whether they launch in 2011 or 2012.

 

[3DVagabond]

Sounds like an exact repeat.

 

[ZimZum]

As long as Nvidia sticks with its "big chip" design ethos they are going to be at a disadvantage when it comes to how fast they can get their products to retail. Especially on a new process.

 

[SlowSpyder]

We'll see how things play out, but I'm not sure it'll be the same thing over again. That article didn't make it sound like AMD was ready to roll with millions of parts six months before Nvidia.

When the 5870 launched it was on a 40nm process that AMD was at least somewhat familiar with (the 4770). 28nm is new to both camps, so AMD may not have as smooth of a launch. I think AMD has a good chance of being out the door first, but I also think Nvidia will try pretty hard to not allow another GTX480 launch. When the GTX580 launched, it really highlighted just how rushed and immature the GTX480 was.

 

[Grooveriding]

Does AMD also have global foundries to make 28nm chips as well as TSMC?

I would like them to come up close to one another so I can choose between them. But if 7970s come out and there is a not a solid announced launch date from nv within a few weeks I will be getting a couple 7970s.

 

[badb0y]

I think that this round the power consumption and performance of nVidia and AMD graphics cards will be similar. AMD is using their new Graphics Core Next technology which is similar to nVidia's CUDA from what I can understand.

 

[NoStateofMind]

Seems like we've heard this story told before but nVidia switching places with AMD circa a couple years ago.

 

[BTRY B 529th FA BN]

Late has nothing to do with it. Late just says things like it's gonna run hot and use alot of energy and not be competitive as they thought.

 

[Arzachel]

Seems like we've heard this story told before but nVidia switching places with AMD circa a couple years ago.

Or maybe Amd/Ati regaining their position they had in the FX5XXX/Radeon 9XXX gen. Maybe minus the horrid drivers

 

[v8envy]

GN core isn't scheduled until some time in 2013. These are 99.9999% likely 28mm shrinks of existing architecture.

I don't think we will see a 5850/5870 repeat -- initial supply sold out instantly, price gouging by etailers, eventual price hikes and frustrated consumers for about a year and change.

I think this time AMD will price the cards relative to their performance. They can afford to do that now that they're pretty much on even ground vs nvidia in enthusiast's eyes. Which means you could very well see $600 for the top end single GPU part that comes within 10% of a 6990, $400 for the within 25% part. And maybe a 30-50% price premium for preformance equivalent cards to what you can buy today, but with the "new hotness" smell and power advantage of the new gear.

 

[RussianSensation]

GN core isn't scheduled until some time in 2013. These are 99.9999% likely 28mm shrinks of existing architecture.

I wasn't aware that a reputable source has confirmed that even a single HD7000 series card will use GCN? Yet, it's discussed as almost a given that HD7000 is GCN.

Everything is just speculation at this point. The problem with GTX480 was lack of communication between 2 design teams. It wasn't just 40nm yield issues. They had to redesign the internals of the chip since the chip wasn't even working. So will GTX680 have these type of problems? Highly unlikely as NV probably fixed the lack of communication / lack of managers overlooking each design aspect. Will it still be a massive chip and pack a truckload of GPGPU performance? You bet since CUDA is a part of nV's corporate strategy. Is NV going to be noncompetitive? Highly unlikely since they have had the single GPU crown for a long time now (8800GTX, GTX280/285, GTX480/GTX580). Even when Fermi missed launch, AMD was still unable to gain that much market share on the discrete destkop GPU space. Most of those gains came on the mobile side. I expect AMD to have better price/performance ratio but NV will probably grab the single-GPU crown again.

Even if Kepler doesn't launch until Jan/Feb of next year, we have already witnessed NV being able to have strong market share on the desktop discrete GPU space despite launching their cards 6-8 months later. Part of that has to do with the idea that most gamers simply aren't buying $350-500 GPUs in the first place. So if HD7970 launches for $350 and is faster than a GTX580, it will be great for us, but will have hardly any impact in the marketplace.

BF3 isn't launching until October 25, 2011 and Skyrim isn't coming out until November 11, 2011. These two games have a high chance of putting a pain of hurt on current high end GPUs. I don't think Rage 3D is going to be that game. So we have at least until October 25th to see how this party will turn out.

 

[Saico]

I wasn't aware that a reputable source has confirmed that even a single HD7000 series card will use GCN? Yet, it's discussed as almost a given that HD7000 is GCN.

Does AMD representative at Fusion Developer Summit count as reputable source? This question was asked many times during press-confrence and the answer was always "GCN is sheduled for second half of2011".

 

[Kenmitch]

Too early to tell what's gonna happen. If problems moving to the 28nm node are present then I'd think it would effect both of them. As far how much it effects each of them it's unknown at this time. Guess it would depend on complexity of design. How many extras that can be disabled etc.

 

[OCGuy]

lol...sources from the "Far-east."


Someone wanted some page-clicks during these summer doldroms.

 

[Arzachel]

The problem with GTX480 was lack of communication between 2 design teams. It wasn't just 40nm yield issues. They had to redesign the internals of the chip since the chip wasn't even working. So will GTX680 have these type of problems? Highly unlikely as NV probably fixed the lack of communication / lack of managers overlooking each design aspect.

I guess that sounds better than admitting that they had a broken design that was late and on top of that had to be patched with the GTX460 and fixed with the GTX580.

Even when Fermi missed launch, AMD was still unable to gain that much market share on the discrete destkop GPU space.

[Citation needed]

Even if Kepler doesn't launch until Jan/Feb of next year, we have already witnessed NV being able to have strong market share on the desktop discrete GPU space despite launching their cards 6-8 months later.

You do know, that the strong market share has nothing to do with Fermi, right? I mean, you can't possibly be saying that it won't hurt Nvidia quite badly to be trailing AMD in release of a new gen for the second time in a row? And missing out on the launch of several games, that might actually stress the hardware without having "cry" and "sis" in the name? AND missing out on the holiday season?

 

[notty22]

I guess that sounds better than admitting that they had a broken design that was late and on top of that had to be patched with the GTX460 and fixed with the GTX580.


What exactly does patch with the gtx 460 even mean ?


[Citation needed]



You do know, that the strong market share has nothing to do with Fermi, right? I mean, you can't possibly be saying that it won't hurt Nvidia quite badly to be trailing AMD in release of a new gen for the second time in a row? And missing out on the launch of several games, that might actually stress the hardware without having "cry" and "sis" in the name? AND missing out on the holiday season?

Nvidia performs strong in desktop GPU market, but still behind AMD in notebooks

The sources pointed out that Nvidia's Fermi graphics cards for the desktop GPU market are the main driver for Nvidia to keep its strong market share and the company's strategy of pushing CUDA technology as well as DirectCompute 11 and OpenCL 1.1 is expected to be the key for whether the company will be able to maintain its share in the future.

Also :
http://www.maximumpc.com/article/ne...esktop_gpu_market_share_amd_notebook_graphics

 

[nenforcer]

nVidia may not be able to push any new hardware this fall, which is unfortunate, but they almost certainly won't sit idle while AMD launches the HD 7000 series.

I would expect both price cuts on the current GTX 500 series cards and numerous bundles of graphics cards and games when Rage, BF3 / CoD:MW3, and Elder Scrolls 5 come out.

 

[digitaldurandal]

This is why I will never buy first round again.. I made that mistake with the GTX 480 and came away disappointed. Luckily I was able to sell my 480s and buy a couple of superclocked 580s from a friend in need for 400 a piece, and let me tell you, the 580s are much better cards.

So I'm going to wait until the inevitable respin before I jump on the Kepler bandwagon.

What are you talking about? The jump from the previous generation (let's say 4870) to the 480/5870 was good. If you wait for the next generation will the gap between the card you have and the card you get be larger, well of course it will. Why not wait another and another and another. But if you look at gaps between each generation the variance is usually the best right when a new process comes out.

 

[CFP]

The thing is.... the 7970 is probably gonna be like 40% faster than a 580.

What happends to the 580? nvidias top of the line card, for the next 5-6 months, before it has a card out to match the 7970?

With popular games releaseing like MW3 and BF3? and crysis2 haveing gotten that DX11 patch. Not even to mention Nvidia missing the "christmas" sales.

Nvidia sales are gonna take a turn from this no?
and prices on the 580 will drop like a brick (so buying one now is not a good idea, give it a month or two and you ll save a small fortune).

lol. what makes you think 7970 will have 40% performance increase over GTX 580?