Will June 12 Rank As "Game Changing" Day?

[ProfJohn]

Mousavi is still leading a good fight to get the election over turned.

I think what we have seen in the last week is the tipping point, but the actual fall may not occur for years yet. By many accounts the government has lost its legitimacy and from there it is only a matter of time. The mullahs may be able to hold power for a bit, but eventually they will fall.

 

[JSt0rm]

Originally posted by: Corn

Originally posted by: Lemon law
With my crystal ball in the repair shop, its hard to say......

What are you talking about? Just a few hours ago you claimed that evidence of Cheney's many (but unknown) criminal acts he's committed over the decades will work its way out any time now. What gives, it works for Cheney, but your crystal ball is defective when it comes to Iran?

and just a few hours ago you were 110% certain he wasn't a criminal.

 

[cwjerome]

Originally posted by: BrownTown
Talk of an impending Iranian democratic revolution is one of those things I remember hearing about all my life, but so far has only been a story. I see no reason why this time will be any different. I guess what it boils down to is the fact that while there is a certain segment of the population that supports more liberal reforms the is a much larger portion that does not. ITs usually put as a young verse old thing, but I would have to think that the poor young people are much more traditional than the more liberal university students that are out there supporting democratic blogs and stuff.

In some ways I agree but that doesn't mean it isn't significant. Look at the type of people demonstrating, many of the demonstrators spoke English and had smartphones, the pre printed signs written in English... signs of a failing "revolution" and it was not spreading to other classes.

But however originally contrived or scripted, the "uprising" in Tehran has ignited the out pouring of real resentments. This whole fracas was basically political theater by both (or more?) sides employing, by intent or serendipity, useful fools. It is not a revolution - yet - but Pandora's box has been opened for the second time (the first was the protests a few years ago that were not viciously put down, but allowed as a venting process, thus giving the impression to the uninitiated that they could get away with opposing the Mullahs). Each time the box is opened, the regime loses a little more legitimacy and control. And in this case that would be some of the protesters - and possibly many watchers - who were sincere about limited reform, but may now be more seriously disenchanted with their system.

The next set of protests -and they will come- will be edgier and the movement to polarizing violence stronger. This could be seen as a Tiananmen Square with Neda playing the role of the student in front of a tank. Since then China has relaxed many aspects of social life, and although far from free, the die is cast. Whether Iran will slowly release authoritarian control over time like China, or eventually erupt into a military takeover remains to be seen. But there's no question in my mind that Iran has the ingredients that make one of those two outcomes inevitable.