Will Intel release Nehalem this year, at affordable price?

[GundamF91]

I wonder if Intel would release Nehalem on time this year. If they do release it in 4Q, it'll either be really expensive, or with very limited availability. If you think about it, the Conroe are still winning mass appeal, and Penryn is just starting to capture the market. AMD is lagging behind so much that it's not a threat for high end market. So if Intel was to toss Nehalem in, Intel will basically beat up its own market corner.

 

[Sylvanas]

Well if they do it will only be the 'extreme edition' CPU's that go for $1000 or something ridiculous with retail availability for mere mortals probably late Q1 09/Q2. Keep in mind AMD have Deneb due by the end of the year which might make Intel get a move on but I still don't think we will see widespread retail availability this year.

 

[ther00kie16]

Actually, the roadmap showed 3 different nehalem chips for q4 '08, one of which is EE for sure. The other 2 had slower FSB (1333 vs 1600 for EE bound chip) so it's hard to say if those will be more affordable though it certainly allows people to hope that such is the case. I mean the 2 slower chips will likely be what? $700 and $550 at most?

 

[aigomorla]

here is my guess.

Neha will be offered on the top platform.

1 will be a dual cpu design like skulltrail. The other is a X58 chipset board.

They will take both the uber 1366 cpu's.

http://en.expreview.com/2008/0...t-nehalem-mobo-is-x58/


As you can see on that picture the X58 overlaps extreme and high end and preimum but skips mainstream.

Here is my price estimates:

X58 single cpu board ~ 270-350
X58 Skulltrail version ~ 570-700
Also factor in a 1kw psu on both class systems.

QX Class Processor, Sorry 1g chip days are over people. 1.5g's at least

Ram Only DDR3.


I did an intial run out of numbers, for the core board and system parts, i need around 5g's to be safe i wont run out of funds without knowing the exact prices on a dual cpu system.

And you subtract 1.7g from that for a single cpu system.

Oh and this is without the GPU sector.
Depending on your flavor, its gonna be XFIRE only, so if you have SLI cards, have fun with that SOLO 280GTX while im racing on my 2 or 3 Xfire HD4870X2 :T


See Nvidia shouldnt of pissed off intel.


i hate listing high numbers like this, but seems like you guys need a visual on approximation on how expensive this system will be.

Neha at release is only going to be aimed at the top 2% of the people who love computers.
The 98% will be shifted to enterprise sector.

And i bet you we'll see MAC's having them b4 any consumer.

 

[bryanW1995]

I agree with much of this. $1500+, probably closer to $2k for the initial extreme edition nehalem will be all that we see this year. they might come out with one or two slightly more reasonably priced variants during q1/q2, but we won't see 1166 until 2h 09. I HATE YOU HECTOR RUIZ!!!

 

[Denithor]

...just sit back and enjoy the Penryn goodness while it lasts.

 

[IntelUser2000]

AMD is lagging behind so much that it's not a threat for high end market. So if Intel was to toss Nehalem in, Intel will basically beat up its own market corner.

Intel will have a more formidable competitor than AMD. That is Nvidia. Every day their GPUs with CUDA programming language is running more and more apps. Intel's CPUs will have more GPU like features and Nvidia's GPUs will have more CPU like features. I think Intel is getting ready for the future when the lines will emerge.

Think of it this way. GTX 280 has nearly 600mm2 die on 65nm while Kentsfield with 4 cores are little larger than 280mm2. Pure transistor wise, Nvidia has more to devote to compute power(I know, CPUs are general purpose while GPUs are not, but you know what I mean). I think this is one reason Intel is introducing Larrabbee. Starting with Nehalem we will see GTX 280 rivaling die sizes on the 8 core versions(pure 2 Bloomfield on die will be over 540mm2, currently not on the roadmaps however). According to Intel's presentation, Larrabbee is set to be a step larger than Nehalem. Don't know if Larrabbe will have all CPU functions, but pretty sure the die size will be bigger.

Intel's current biggest competitor, AMD is currently not giving too much of a threat, so that might be the reason why Penryn's clock speeds aren't high. But the reason I think Intel isn't slowing in terms of core-wise is because of future Nvidia.

 

[Krishnavamshi24]

Intel Nehalem...hmm...people seem to have a lot of expectations from it...and the way the current market is right now...and i way i see it ...Nehalem will be priced Exorbitantly Unless of Course there is Competition from AMD...

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: IntelUser2000
Intel's current biggest competitor, AMD is currently not giving too much of a threat, so that might be the reason why Penryn's clock speeds aren't high. But the reason I think Intel isn't slowing in terms of core-wise is because of future Nvidia.

Intel isn't slowing because they want more of that high-dollar multi-socket server market revenue.

Without cross-licensing, the barrier to entry is absurdly high for NV to gain the IP necessary to build general purpose processors that can threaten the adoption rate of CPU's.

Companies like SGI, HP, and DEC did not voluntarily halt their internal development of existing big-iron processors for lack of motivation or resources.

When folks who already had both their feet on the other side of the door find themselves exiting the design/production scene it is a pretty good indicator to the rest of the world that the barrier to entry for someone brand new off the street trying to get into that market has got to be pretty exhorbinant.

I continue to believe the biggest threat to Intel's revenue stream and gross margins is lack of necessity in the mainstream for "next year's" product. 80% of the market is not going to need 8-thread desktop/laptop computers at 6GHz for checking email, making powerpoint presentations, updating their facebook account, or uploading photo's to snapfish.

To be sure, gaming represents the biggest draw for CPU horsepower but we see that once your CPU meets a minimum level of horsepower you really are GPU limited and are just wasting money buying faster and faster CPU's.

This is where Intel recognizes they need to get on the bandwagon and field a consumer product (GPU) that puts them firmly back into the critical path of performance versus dollar where consumers are expected to be willing to pay for the performance.

NV is not a threat to Intel's Nehalem/Westmere/SandyBridge. Potential for 80% of the dfesktop consumers realizing that a dual-core 5000+ X2 provides them all the CPU power they need to run 100% all the applications of relevance to them is the threat to Intel's future gross margins and PFO.

 

[aigomorla]

you just made all my high end rigs cry.

:[


yes i need my emails opened .1 ms faster then average!

 

[harpoon84]

I wonder how much the 2.66GHz Nehalem will cost. Based on Intel's pricing structure, I'd say $530 is most likely, or, in a best case scenario, $316.

 

[Isaac MM]

Is there any info on the speed of the nehalem chips?

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: Isaac MM
Is there any info on the speed of the nehalem chips?

Nehalem to launch from 2.66 to 3.2GHz

 

[Majic 7]

I think Intel, Microsoft, and probably most in the industry have visions of powerful media center systems that will control everything from a central location. Systems with enough power that the whole family can do what ever they want at the same time without slowing down the central system. These systems could control everything in the house. The idea has been around a while, now there will enough power to do it.

 

[VirtualLarry]

Originally posted by: Majic 7
I think Intel, Microsoft, and probably most in the industry have visions of powerful media center systems that will control everything from a central location. Systems with enough power that the whole family can do what ever they want at the same time without slowing down the central system. These systems could control everything in the house. The idea has been around a while, now there will enough power to do it.

Yes, but will MS add the technology to allow multiple users to login to this machine at one time? It's possible with low-level configuration changes under XP, but MS apparently wants every user to have their own PC with their own copy of Windows running it.

 

[SickBeast]

This reminds me of the early days of the Pentium 2. Intel is going to be able to charge whatever they want for their new chips.

 

[IntelUser2000]

The upcoming Nehalem versions(which looks like 2.66GHz/2.83GHz/3.0GHz/3.2GHz) on the roadmaps just seems to replace the current Penryn based quad cores at the same clock speed. I don't think the prices will be too much different from the previous generations either.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: IntelUser2000
The upcoming Nehalem versions(which looks like 2.66GHz/2.83GHz/3.0GHz/3.2GHz) on the roadmaps just seems to replace the current Penryn based quad cores at the same clock speed. I don't think the prices will be too much different from the previous generations either.

I would think that both the die sizes and the prices will be a bit higher because of all the extra "bits" (IMC, QPI I/O, etc...)

 

[harpoon84]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: IntelUser2000
The upcoming Nehalem versions(which looks like 2.66GHz/2.83GHz/3.0GHz/3.2GHz) on the roadmaps just seems to replace the current Penryn based quad cores at the same clock speed. I don't think the prices will be too much different from the previous generations either.

I would think that both the die sizes and the prices will be a bit higher because of all the extra "bits" (IMC, QPI I/O, etc...)

Since when did Intel (or AMD for that matter) price their processors based on die size? I don't see Penryn chips costing less than Kentsfield despite the smaller die. Yes, there is an IMC which increases chip complexity but then mobos will become cheaper to manufacture as there is no NB.

 

[Nemesis 1]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: IntelUser2000
The upcoming Nehalem versions(which looks like 2.66GHz/2.83GHz/3.0GHz/3.2GHz) on the roadmaps just seems to replace the current Penryn based quad cores at the same clock speed. I don't think the prices will be too much different from the previous generations either.

I would think that both the die sizes and the prices will be a bit higher because of all the extra "bits" (IMC, QPI I/O, etc...)

Agreed . Look for the 2.66 part to be about $30/50 higher than a 2.66 penryn.
At the same time and for the reasons Viditor gave the chipset/motherboard should be cheaper.

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: harpoon84

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: IntelUser2000
The upcoming Nehalem versions(which looks like 2.66GHz/2.83GHz/3.0GHz/3.2GHz) on the roadmaps just seems to replace the current Penryn based quad cores at the same clock speed. I don't think the prices will be too much different from the previous generations either.

I would think that both the die sizes and the prices will be a bit higher because of all the extra "bits" (IMC, QPI I/O, etc...)

Since when did Intel (or AMD for that matter) price their processors based on die size? I don't see Penryn chips costing less than Kentsfield despite the smaller die. Yes, there is an IMC which increases chip complexity but then mobos will become cheaper to manufacture as there is no NB.

That and also the fact you don't stop selling something you make $100 on just to replace it with something you only make $80 on. Nehalem will cost more to produce, ignoring the R&D costs, etc, but just from the diesize resulting in lower yields.

If the prices are not markedly higher than the replacement Penryn (to compensate for gross margin erosion) then look for them to be in short supply so Intel isn't actually diluting their gross margins with tons of too cheap nehalems.

This is all standard gross margin management, almost kind of a textbook example of it because Intel is operating in a near monopoly position here with no competition in this segment so it truly is self-inflicted GM erosion and sales canabalism. It's a different story of course in the multi-socket segment.

 

[coldpower27]

I doubt Nehalem will be anything but a High end product this year, not with the already dominant position they are in, if AMD actually gets competitive in the high performance space then maybe I could see it.

After the Pentium 4 reign, it's hard to imagine Intel will give AMD that kind of opportunity again.

Intel is taking AMD at least as somewhat of a threat now. W'ere going to have 2MB/4MB Dual Core/Quad Core based on Penryn Mx steppings to compete with AMD's low price Quad Core's. However I don't see that having much impact on Nehalem itself, maybe once Intel has more of it's market switched over to Nehalem's you will see the reduced cache versions with reduce die size.

 

[hans007]

the first batch of triple channell ddr3 penryn is basically jsut the xeon models sold as enthusiast chips.

the main stream normal people ones (2 channell ddr3) arent supposed to be out until 2H 2009.

 

[GoodToGo]

I think the launch of Penryn should give you a decent idea. They started off with the QX9650, and it was insane at $1,300 ish. There was a very delayed launch of main stream chips such as 9300, 9450 and 9550. The delay was so bad that people just bought the Xeon equivalents instead of waiting for the mainstream ones. It was only in April that availability for sweet price points chips such as 9450,9550 was more but still they were hard to find...

Dont expect Nehalem to be any different. They say Q4 2008 but I think the actual launch will e Q1 2009 and from there on according to the "roadmap" that I posted.

 

[Lonyo]

Originally posted by: aigomorla
here is my guess.

Also factor in a 1kw psu on both class systems.

If a Nehalem system using standard components (something like an HD4850, one or two harddrives, sound card, etc) requires more than a quality 500w PSU, I will eat my hat.
(For a single CPU system)