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Will any of the great advancements be seen in my lifetime?
- Thread starter Onceler
- Start date
sm625
Diamond Member
Well a lot of fields are deliberately suppressed. Take LENR for example. LENR was going to be the biggest thing since sliced bread, then along came those two baffoons who went public with an experiment that couldnt be replicated. Then the corporate control system, for lack of better words, came crushing down on them and the entire field of LENR just happened to be collateral damage. Words like Cold Fusion became a stigma, even though anyone with a brain knew there was something to it. So here we are 20 years later we still know there is something to it but still dont frickin know what. You see this sort of thing in every field that is about to break out.
Meanwhile they are still teaching schoolchildren that all of the continents on the earth formed a pangea millions of years ago, and that I guess on the other side of this pangea was a great big fairy wonderland or something equally idiotic. And no one even bothers to state the obvious: it isnt possible...
So no one coming up in this generation knows anything about expansion tectonics, and the creation of matter within the cores of all planets which underpins it. These fields and many others are totally cut off by this system. I call it the corporate control system but it is far more demonic than that. At any rate, the dumbed down idiots that grow up in this almost soviet style backward limited science paradigm will make these stupid remarks about how such and such cant be possible but they dont even actually use their brains for long enough to even consider the possibilities. They are trained to be closed off. So of course innovation is stifled. We can see how this ruined the soviet union but for some reason most cannot see it happening now, on a much larger scale. The globe is the new soviet.
Meanwhile they are still teaching schoolchildren that all of the continents on the earth formed a pangea millions of years ago, and that I guess on the other side of this pangea was a great big fairy wonderland or something equally idiotic. And no one even bothers to state the obvious: it isnt possible...
So no one coming up in this generation knows anything about expansion tectonics, and the creation of matter within the cores of all planets which underpins it. These fields and many others are totally cut off by this system. I call it the corporate control system but it is far more demonic than that. At any rate, the dumbed down idiots that grow up in this almost soviet style backward limited science paradigm will make these stupid remarks about how such and such cant be possible but they dont even actually use their brains for long enough to even consider the possibilities. They are trained to be closed off. So of course innovation is stifled. We can see how this ruined the soviet union but for some reason most cannot see it happening now, on a much larger scale. The globe is the new soviet.
Gibsons
Lifer
um. yeah.
SecurityTheatre
Senior member
SecurityTheatre
Senior member
Graphene has seen some very novel uses. Some practical systems that do a variety of things ranging from DNS sequencing to thermal conduction. Cool stuff, just the tip of the iceberg in terms of practical applications.
Memristors have been on a slow march. From wikipedia:
"In 2008, a team at HP Labs announced the development of a switching memristor based on a thin film of titanium dioxide.[8] These devices are being developed for application in nanoelectronic memories, computer logic, and neuromorphic computer architectures.[9] In October 2011, the same team announced the commercial availability of memristor technology within 18 months, as a replacement for Flash, SSD, DRAM and SRAM.[10] In March 2012, a team of researchers from HRL Laboratories and the University of Michigan announced the first functioning memristor array built on a CMOS chip for applications in neuromorphic computer architectures."
Seems like it's on a normal technological pace.
Quantum computing is on about the same pace, though there is still *some* debate as to whether it's actually using real entanglement, or if it's just using some other interesting quantum properties. But regardless they do solve some novel problems relatively efficiently.
Bacteria and DNA and other biological technologies for computing are still just wild theories with no practical application, nor demonstration of how they might be used efficiently. They are extremely temperature and environmentally sensitive and don't scale well. I'm not sure they were ever that viable, but who knows...
As for flying cars and uhm.. cold fusion (LENR)... well... just LOL.
Onceler
Golden Member
But when?
I read about MRAM and a bunch of other tech that was supposed to revolutionize everything back in 96 PC mag.
Here it is 2013 and they are still just talking about it, some work might be done in a lab but nothing is showing.
Memristors haven't seen a single application since they were first made.
I read about MRAM and a bunch of other tech that was supposed to revolutionize everything back in 96 PC mag.
Here it is 2013 and they are still just talking about it, some work might be done in a lab but nothing is showing.
Memristors haven't seen a single application since they were first made.
SecurityTheatre
Senior member
Honestly, some concepts are just ill considered, or have serious issues.
The idea of regenerative braking on a passenger vehicle was attempted in the early 1900s, by flywheel or battery or a few other methods.
But it was abandoned for being impractical, unreliable and uncomfortable for passengers and very expensive with little benefit.
But now that we have cheap computer controlled systems AND widespread adoption of electric drivetrains AND a strong concern for efficiency, it suddenly had made its way into a number of mass-market vehicles.
Sometimes tech comes along and just isn't practical for its time, or doesn't generate the type of engineering work needed to make it practical due to a low probability of actually making a meaningful difference.
What problem does a memristor solve that can't be solved today? What benefit does it have? Can one be engineered on today's hyper-small semiconductor process? Can one made at that scale actually perform anywhere near modern transistors? What is the lifespan? What are the temperature tolerances using modern manufacturing?
There are a number of reasons that something like that might be a cool idea that just isn't practical to implement.
The biggest impediment to progress is, and has always been, religion. It took mankind only 60 years to walk on the moon after the Wright Brothers left the ground. Imagine where we would be now if the theocrats of the past hadn't condemned us to 500 years of dark ages. Nowadays the very same idiotic zealots are stifling stem cell research and biotechnology, just to name a few.
Moore's Law postulates that computer technology doubles every 18 months. If we assume a conservative rate of technological progress amounting to a doubling every 5 years, then in 50 years technology should advance by a factor of 2^10, ie 1000 times. In 100 years we would be 1 million times ahead. In 25 years it would be 2^5 = 32.
Moore's Law postulates that computer technology doubles every 18 months. If we assume a conservative rate of technological progress amounting to a doubling every 5 years, then in 50 years technology should advance by a factor of 2^10, ie 1000 times. In 100 years we would be 1 million times ahead. In 25 years it would be 2^5 = 32.
The DNA or "living" computing is something that doesn't make practical sense on its own, while living organisms are extremely complex, and technically much more "reliable" than any technology yet developed, they are lacking computational and memory addressing power, humans are good at logical thinking, but we are horrible in making raw calculations, error-prone and are not really able to memorize anything more complex, yet computers despite they don't think, they are fast calculators and their memory is fully controlled. So it has no point to make anything for computation that is based on living organism.
The only reason this field could work on is creating bio-mechanical implants that could be used to restore health of ill or disabled people and animals, or return some of the lost abilities, but practically nothing else.
Yet, in 2003 I read in some PC mag that by 2007 intel will be making 10GHz CPUs for mainstream, we are in 2013 and there has been single attempt on making 5GHz stock freq CPU by AMD just days ago.
Future development is really hard to predict mate, most of stuff you read will never happen anyway.
The only reason this field could work on is creating bio-mechanical implants that could be used to restore health of ill or disabled people and animals, or return some of the lost abilities, but practically nothing else.
Yet, in 2003 I read in some PC mag that by 2007 intel will be making 10GHz CPUs for mainstream, we are in 2013 and there has been single attempt on making 5GHz stock freq CPU by AMD just days ago.
Future development is really hard to predict mate, most of stuff you read will never happen anyway.
That's when Internet became self aware. Be afraid, be very afraid.
uclaLabrat
Diamond Member
I'm was at the talk where stan williams first disclosed the meritorious publicly, at CNSI at UCLA... Pretty intense seminar, but IIRC the first memeristors were only a few nm wide, if that big... They had rotaxanes grafted to a titanium surface and the control device used long chain fatty acids instead of rotaxanes but exhibited the same behavior, implying the rotaxanes were superfluous. The fatty acids inhibited oxygen diffusion to the surface and somehow changed the electronic properties and demonstrated memristance. I'm sure the seminal publication explains it much better
colonelciller
Senior member
DominionSeraph
Diamond Member
LOL what?
Looks pretty possible to have a huge-ass ocean to me.
And you seem to have a weird concept of the continents. You know the Earth's crust is proportionately thinner than an eggshell, right? You know that the Earth's surface is proportionately as smooth as a billiard ball, right?
The average depth of the ocean is ~2.5 miles on a ball that's 7800 miles in diameter. That we have X amount of water spread out to average depth Y giving us a coverage level of Z doesn't have some sort of cosmic significance.
Murloc
Diamond Member
don't waste your time with conspirationists.
Anyway liquid crystals were discovered in 1888 and they began to study them from that date.
The first displays came in the 60s though.
So as you can see it can take quite some time before something is useful enough to be taken out of the lab.
Anyway liquid crystals were discovered in 1888 and they began to study them from that date.
The first displays came in the 60s though.
So as you can see it can take quite some time before something is useful enough to be taken out of the lab.
ROFL... reminds me of a joke i heard at a seminar..
Imagine John is a time traveler of today and went back 50 yrs to 1963.
Imagine the people of 1963 ask questions of John what the future was like.
The people in 1963 would ask John:
1. Has man made a colony on the moon?
2. Do we have flying cars?
3. Do we have andriods maid robots who can cook clean and make me a sandwich.
4. Do we have Ray guns and Teleporters?
John would have to look back and:
1. No man kinda gave up on the moon.
2. No, and still no super sonic travel even.
3. No we have a somewhat half working roomba tho, and cell phones which are called andriods.
4. No.. we dont have anything star trek, but we have face book which lets people know what they had for lunch in real time.
Imagine John is a time traveler of today and went back 50 yrs to 1963.
Imagine the people of 1963 ask questions of John what the future was like.
The people in 1963 would ask John:
1. Has man made a colony on the moon?
2. Do we have flying cars?
3. Do we have andriods maid robots who can cook clean and make me a sandwich.
4. Do we have Ray guns and Teleporters?
John would have to look back and:
1. No man kinda gave up on the moon.
2. No, and still no super sonic travel even.
3. No we have a somewhat half working roomba tho, and cell phones which are called andriods.
4. No.. we dont have anything star trek, but we have face book which lets people know what they had for lunch in real time.
SecurityTheatre
Senior member
To be fair, almost everyone on earth carries a computer and personal communication device that is more powerful than the sum of all computers ever made at the time. It can download the entire contents of the largest encyclopedia ever made in just a few minutes and read it to you, all while storing and playing MONTHS worth of music and polling the internet regularly to ensure that everyone is reachable at all times, everywhere.
That's pretty cool.
we need another roswell to speed things along, no?
Except for teleporters, the answer to all questions is that we could have done it if we had wanted to, or if we had needed to. The technology is already here.
If you are wondering about the ray gun ...
http://gizmodo.com/5994074/watch-a-navy-laser-gun-blast-a-drone-right-out-of-the-sky
BTW, a taser qualifies ... sorta.
Eureka
Diamond Member
I think the real problem is having realistic expectations of "great advancements".
There's a lot of pop science out there that people want to take in as "realistic" and "up-and-coming". One thing to realize is that a lot of tech that is billed as "10 years away" means "50-100 years before economic realization".
In the last 50 years we've already seen huge advancements. At the same time, you have people passing off unrealistic or unobtainable tech as the next big thing. I remember reading about hydrogen fuel cells and flying cars. The reason why we see neither of these is because they're plain uneconomic. Yes we can build one, but can we mass produce it? Will it be worthwhile to do so? We can't even get battery tech cheaply implemented, and hell it's hard enough educating people to drive in 2 dimensions, much less 3.
It's one thing, at least as an engineer, that grinds my gears. People are too fascinated with "science of the future" and ignore the advancements that are happening everyday. People just want to imagine shiny new things, without realizing the implications of actually producing and implementing these things.
There's a lot of pop science out there that people want to take in as "realistic" and "up-and-coming". One thing to realize is that a lot of tech that is billed as "10 years away" means "50-100 years before economic realization".
In the last 50 years we've already seen huge advancements. At the same time, you have people passing off unrealistic or unobtainable tech as the next big thing. I remember reading about hydrogen fuel cells and flying cars. The reason why we see neither of these is because they're plain uneconomic. Yes we can build one, but can we mass produce it? Will it be worthwhile to do so? We can't even get battery tech cheaply implemented, and hell it's hard enough educating people to drive in 2 dimensions, much less 3.
It's one thing, at least as an engineer, that grinds my gears. People are too fascinated with "science of the future" and ignore the advancements that are happening everyday. People just want to imagine shiny new things, without realizing the implications of actually producing and implementing these things.
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exdeath
Lifer
The need for slow kilobytes per second random access third tier storage devices that resulted in the switch from non volatile magnetic core memory to volatile DRAM memory so many decades ago.
I want unified memory and storage. I want to install updates at 50 GB/sec and not wait minutes for computers to boot.
I've come close with NAND flash SSD arrays and 10 gbit Infiniband in my home computers, but its still just a bandaid solution to a true universal non volatile main memory with SRAM speed and access time, DRAM longevity and density, and NAND flash unpowered data retention.
Until we have main memory that can store data indefinitely without power and is so fast that it makes the SRAM cache in CPUs obsolete and brings forth a 1:1 cpu:memory zero wait state computer experience, then bring on the memresistor and STT-MRAM research.
I for one am getting tired of seeing "please wait loading" or "gathering information" for 15 minutes or "time remaining 2 days" when moving large amounts of data in machines that supposedly can do trillions of operations per second.
We keep making fast processors but neglect the fact that we still use primitive 20th century technology such as two cups and a string (network) or magnetic tape (hard drives) to feed it.
Processor performance breakthrouhs need to take a back seat to more research and breakthroughs on solving the ever growing I/O chasm.
Something like the non volatile memsistors or STT-MRAM with density matching or exceeding DRAM/NAND flash, and speeds rivaling both, would be the biggest revolution in computing since the transistor and microprocessor. Until then we are on track to having 16+ core CPUs that sit idle waiting on storage system interrupts while periodically updating an hourglass or progress bar animation...
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Ex, Memristors won't magically remove the need for tiered storage. Electricity can only go so fast. As such, even an infinitely fast drive of Memristors today wouldn't fix the problems that are holding NAND back, currently the interface.
For what its worth, it takes longer for my monitor to accept the resolution than it does for my computer to boot.
For what its worth, it takes longer for my monitor to accept the resolution than it does for my computer to boot.
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