Wikileaks dump: China believes Korea should be reunified under South's control

sunzt

Diamond Member
Nov 27, 2003
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Important relavation from the wikileaks documents. If true, then NK is in an isolated position and shouldn't be expecting help from China if it gets into a war with SK/US. Of course, it can also help trigger a war if Kim jong crazy believes there's nothing left to lose.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/11/29/wikileaks.new.documents/index.html?hpt=T2

(CNN) -- New documents posted on the websites of the Guardian and The New York Times suggest Chinese officials are losing patience with long-time ally North Korea. Senior figures in Beijing have even described the regime in the North as behaving like a "spoiled child."

According to cables obtained by WikiLeaks, South Korea's then vice foreign minister, Chun Yung-woo, said earlier this year that senior Chinese officials (whose names are redacted in the cables) had told him they believed Korea should be reunified under Seoul's control, and that this view was gaining ground with the leadership in Beijing.

Chun was quoted at length in a cable sent by the U.S. ambassador in Seoul, Kathleen Stephens, earlier this year. He is reported as saying that "the North had already collapsed economically and would collapse politically two to three years after the death of (leader) Kim Jong-il."

CNN has viewed the cables posted on the newspapers' websites and on the WikiLeaks website.

Chun, who has since become South Korea's National Security Adviser, dismissed the prospect of China's military intervention in the event of a North Korean collapse, noting that "China's strategic economic interests now lie with the United States, Japan, and South Korea -- not North Korea."

He said that younger generation Chinese Communist party leaders no longer regarded North Korea as a useful or reliable ally and would not risk renewed armed conflict on the peninsula, according to a secret cable to Washington.

In a separate cable from January this year, then-South Korean Foreign Mnister Yu Myung-Hwan is quoted as telling U.S. diplomats that "the North Korean leader [Kim Jong Il] needed both Chinese economic aid and political support to stabilize an 'increasingly chaotic' situation at home."

The cables suggest China is frustrated in its relationship with Pyongyang. One from April 2009 quoted Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei as saying that "North Korea wanted to engage directly with the United States and was therefore acting like a "spoiled child" in order to get the attention of the "adult." The cable continued: "China therefore encouraged the United States, 'after some time,' to start to re-engage the DPRK."

In October 2009, a cable sent from Beijing recounted a meeting between U.S. diplomats and Chinese State Councillor Dai Bingguo, who had recently met Kim Jong Il. According to the leaked cable, Dai noted that Kim had lost weight when compared to when he last saw him three years earlier, but that Kim appeared to be in reasonably good health and still had a "sharp mind."

Dai also spoke about Kim's liking for alcohol. The cable continued: "Kim Jong-il had a reputation among the Chinese for being 'quite a good drinker,' and, Dai said, he had asked Kim if he still drank alcohol. Kim said yes."

The North Koreans told Dai that they wanted to have dialogue with the United States first and that they would consider next steps, including possible multilateral talks, depending on their conversation with the United States. North Korea held "great expectations for the United States," said Dai.

Further evidence of China's unease at Pyongyang's behavior came in a cable in June 2009 from the U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan, Richard Hoagland. He reported that the Chinese envoy there was "genuinely concerned by North Korea's recent nuclear missile tests," and saw its nuclear activity a 'threat to the whole world's security.'" Hoagland reported that China's objectives were "to ensure they [North Korean leaders] honor their commitments on non-proliferation, maintain stability, and 'don't drive [Kim Jong-il] mad.'"

It seems the Russians were similarly frustrated by North Korean obduracy. In April 2009, a U.S. diplomatic cable quoted a senior Russian official as saying that "Foreign Minister Lavrov had a difficult trip to North Korea that did not reveal any flexibility in DPRK's position." The Russian official assessed that Pyongyang was "hunkering down for a succession crisis."
 

Vette73

Lifer
Jul 5, 2000
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China wants that for more than one reason. If they get back together then they will have more money and may buy weapons and other stuff from China.
Right now S.K buys mostly American and the N.K from China. But North is lacking in funds. So its a win win for China.
 

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
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A successful Korea would be a new market for China, so it doesn't surprise me. As conditions worsen in NK, more people might attempt to cross into China too.
 

rudder

Lifer
Nov 9, 2000
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you mean wikileaks isn't just stealing american secrets?

These are U.S. diplomatic communications. And as an aside.. wikileaks didn't steal anything. Someone in the U.S. government provided the docs to wikileaks.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
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Wow, I would have bet money that Beijing did not want a unified Korea. I'm very glad to see at least a strong contingent who do want a unified Korea.
 

sunzt

Diamond Member
Nov 27, 2003
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Wow, I would have bet money that Beijing did not want a unified Korea. I'm very glad to see at least a strong contingent who do want a unified Korea.

Capitalism makes strange bedfellows sometimes ...
 

Schadenfroh

Elite Member
Mar 8, 2003
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Wow, I would have bet money that Beijing did not want a unified Korea. I'm very glad to see at least a strong contingent who do want a unified Korea.

Indeed, I thought China wanted the status-quo with a more restrained "dear leader" in charge.

Brainwashed refugees during the "transition" will be a nightmare for China as they flee the advancing capitalist South Korean puppet soldiers that will surely rape and pillage them at the behest of their imperialist American masters.

Also, no more buffer state means a tense border with China directly this time instead of just along the 38th.
 

sunzt

Diamond Member
Nov 27, 2003
3,076
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Also, no more buffer state means a tense border with China directly this time instead of just along the 38th.

As economic ties grow deeper between China and SK, a need for a buffer state goes out the window. I would expect any tensions to eventually decrease. Historically, China and Korea have had amicable relations and I would think that would still continue on with a unified Korea. They both still hate those Japs!
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
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Indeed, I thought China wanted the status-quo with a more restrained "dear leader" in charge.

Brainwashed refugees during the "transition" will be a nightmare for China as they flee the advancing capitalist South Korean puppet soldiers that will surely rape and pillage them at the behest of their imperialist American masters.

Also, no more buffer state means a tense border with China directly this time instead of just along the 38th.
I think perhaps China is now so strong they no longer fear the West.

Capitalism makes strange bedfellows sometimes ...
You've probably hit the nail on the head there, lunatics with nukes are bad for business. People have said for ages that the hardline Communists and pro-north forces are those able to remember the revolution and World War II, so the pro-unification forces are presumably the younger members of the leadership. Since those who remember the revolution and World War II must be in their seventies if not eighties, that bodes well for moderation across the board as those elderly rulers can't live much longer. Maybe we'll have a free China once again - perhaps even within my lifetime.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
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Like Wow oh Wow, a unnamed senior Chinese official is actually able to intellectually ponder the idea of a future unified Korea under South Korean leadership. Without going into a a fit of the screaming neebie jeebies followed by putting the author of such an idea on their do not talk to list. The problem is that pondering possible what ifs is far short of any evidence that ALL of China will go for the idea.

The other thing to point ouit is that the degree of Chinese control of S. Korea also will control Chinese thinking on the question. Why should China or any other country engage
in costly wars of conquest when they have a high degree of regional economic control
of a smaller neighbor? And at this point in time, S. Korea is maybe too highly economically aligned with the USA. But in future, with the rising economic power of China, the calculus on that question may change. And there are other consideration in what amounts to the North Korean commincation black hole, as we only now find out, China also knows very little about the power structure of North Korea. A Very dangerous thing for China if it gets dragged into a shooting war to back North Korea.

The other thing to say is that is why I don't like this latest round of Wikileaks because it targets the diplomatic process. And diplomats should be able to discuss and ponder future options freely without restraint or consequence, in what amounts to hypothetical horse trading. And just float ideas that are unlikely to reach fruition without much future refinement. Its basically how peace is waged.

But as soon as diplomacy is conducted in public, every single niggling idea becomes emotionally and politically charged, and thus no diplomatic progress can be made as a rotten past becomes even more static and rotten
 

DesiPower

Lifer
Nov 22, 2008
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Now that Julian has pissed off China, he must fear for his Ass-carnage (pun-intended)
 

Sinsear

Diamond Member
Jan 13, 2007
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The other thing to say is that is why I don't like this latest round of Wikileaks because it targets the diplomatic process.


No, you don't like it because it exposes Iran and shows the contempt the rest of the world has for it.
 

bfdd

Lifer
Feb 3, 2007
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China wants that for more than one reason. If they get back together then they will have more money and may buy weapons and other stuff from China.
Right now S.K buys mostly American and the N.K from China. But North is lacking in funds. So its a win win for China.

I have been saying this is a win win for China every goddamn time a NK thread pops up. Everyone thinks China is some stupid country that would go against its best interests to back up NK, when it should be blatantly obvious they'd lose far more than gain by backing NK in any sort of real conflict.
 

Scotteq

Diamond Member
Apr 10, 2008
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Wow, I would have bet money that Beijing did not want a unified Korea. I'm very glad to see at least a strong contingent who do want a unified Korea.


I was very surprised as well - But I interpreted it in a more... laisse faire manner.

i.e. ...'if it someday were to become a scenario where that NK were to weaken significantly from the inside out... then China would not oppose SK's efforts to unify the peninsula on the grounds that SK have shown themselves as Re$S$pon$S$ible neighbors with good economic $S$tanding'...

...And - while the Soevereign Nation Of China would prefer our Communist Bretheren emerge Victorious from their long struggle - the presence of a Unified Korea under the South's dominion would in any case be far preferable to a long Civil War on our borders... Not only for China's$$ sake and for Korea's $$akes, but al$o for all of A$$ia...



But I would not expect any overt help from China to accomplish this goal.
 

ShawnD1

Lifer
May 24, 2003
15,987
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I have been saying this is a win win for China every goddamn time a NK thread pops up. Everyone thinks China is some stupid country that would go against its best interests to back up NK, when it should be blatantly obvious they'd lose far more than gain by backing NK in any sort of real conflict.

It's all based on racism and the "us vs them" mentality that seems rampant on this forum. The belief is that China is some kind of hive mind where people are brain dead zombies who hate money and freedom. It turns out the opposite is true. Chinese people are hard working, well educated, and they want to work. Supporting capitalism is good for China because it means China has more customers.


The cold war is over and communism lost. It's a total mystery why people still think China and Russia are enemies plotting some kind of global communist take over and that capitalism in those countries is only to trick people.
 

bfdd

Lifer
Feb 3, 2007
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Yongsta, that's because the Koreans put out some decent TV, but I try to stay away from their movies for the most part. While I have seen some excellent Korean films, I feel that South Korea as a nation owes me an apology for Dragon Wars because that's the only film where I feel I lost a part of me I can never get back.
 

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,986
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No, you don't like it because it exposes Iran and shows the contempt the rest of the world has for it.

You are correct! What it also does is eliminate the israel card which people so often play...as in...well if it wasn`t for Iran`s contempt for Israel, Iran wouldn`t need nuclear weapons..lol

Another thing this proves is that if Israel were to attack Iran the rest of the middle east and IMO the world would sit back and let it happen...or would not say a word.

It`s amazing the possibilities when you take the israel card out of the picture!!
 
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JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
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My guess is these "senior officials" are still in the minority. Of course it's an improvement from a decade or two ago where there was no one that supported a unified Korea, but it's certainly a good sign that some do. But I doubt it's a shared view amongst all leadership.

It will be interesting how it plays out if China does decide to make official policy to turn its back on NK. That might cause instability that is worse than status quo. And it won't happen under KJI's regime. Hopefully the fat fuck that's to replace him is a pussy and will work with China and the West to begin reunification. After all KJI's father had opened up to it before his death.

I have to wonder though if KJI has absolute power or if he's just a figurehead of those in power around him.
 

bfdd

Lifer
Feb 3, 2007
13,312
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My guess is these "senior officials" are still in the minority. Of course it's an improvement from a decade or two ago where there was no one that supported a unified Korea, but it's certainly a good sign that some do. But I doubt it's a shared view amongst all leadership.

It will be interesting how it plays out if China does decide to make official policy to turn its back on NK. That might cause instability that is worse than status quo. And it won't happen under KJI's regime. Hopefully the fat fuck that's to replace him is a pussy and will work with China and the West to begin reunification. After all KJI's father had opened up to it before his death.

I have to wonder though if KJI has absolute power or if he's just a figurehead of those in power around him.

They might be a minority now, but they are gaining foot and odds are if push came to shove they'd win out. SK and the USA are HUGE trading partners with China, NK is a parasite. Now if China had the choice of securing it's on safety and keeping the wealth coming in it would be to back SK and not start shit with the USA. From what I have read from the leaks I find it funny that they were supposed to shine a light on the asshole USA, when all I'm really seeing is a ton of other countries political faces in total opposition with their public faces.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
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I have been saying this is a win win for China every goddamn time a NK thread pops up. Everyone thinks China is some stupid country that would go against its best interests to back up NK, when it should be blatantly obvious they'd lose far more than gain by backing NK in any sort of real conflict.
No one thinks China is stupid, but historically they have had at least four valid reasons to support North Korea: Fellow Communists, physical buffer against South Korea and the West, keeping an economic competitor permanently weakened, and potential loss of face in having a Chinese client state fail or be taken. If significant factions of Chinese leadership have turned against North Korea, and assuming those are primarily the younger generation, then only the fourth holds true. Thus as long as South Korea and the West do not act in such a manner that threatens Chinese leadership with loss of face, reunification is not only possible, but somewhat likely.

I was very surprised as well - But I interpreted it in a more... laisse faire manner.

i.e. ...'if it someday were to become a scenario where that NK were to weaken significantly from the inside out... then China would not oppose SK's efforts to unify the peninsula on the grounds that SK have shown themselves as Re$S$pon$S$ible neighbors with good economic $S$tanding'...

...And - while the Soevereign Nation Of China would prefer our Communist Bretheren emerge Victorious from their long struggle - the presence of a Unified Korea under the South's dominion would in any case be far preferable to a long Civil War on our borders... Not only for China's$$ sake and for Korea's $$akes, but al$o for all of A$$ia...


But I would not expect any overt help from China to accomplish this goal.
LOL I imagine you are correct with this analysis.
 

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
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Why would South want them? These people are intellectually crippled, malnourished, totally different people at this point which would drag SK into poverty when they are just getting up to first world standards of living.

This is not like East Germany and West unification at all. Not that that was easy either. And East is still a basket case relative.
 
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fire400

Diamond Member
Nov 21, 2005
5,204
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it's common sense. look at the good starcraft players from south korea.

north korea needs to hurry up fast or they may miss out on the sc2 era.

south korea has better nuclear smarts than north korea anyway.