Wichita State mathematician says Kansas voting machines need audit

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soundforbjt

soundforbjt

Lifer
Feb 15, 2002
17,788
6,041
136
http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article27951310.html

Seems republicans may find real some voting fraud at last, but may not like who it points possible fingers at.
vvvv
http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article17139890.html

While it is well-recognized that smaller, rural precincts tend to lean Republican, statisticians have been unable to explain the consistent pattern favoring Republicans that trends upward as the number of votes cast in a precinct or other voting unit goes up. In primaries, the favored candidate appears to always be the Republican establishment candidate, above a tea party challenger. And the upward trend for Republicans occurs once a voting unit reaches roughly 500 votes.

“This is not just an anomaly that occurred in one place,” Clarkson said. “It is a pattern that has occurred repeatedly in elections across the United States.”

The pattern could be voter fraud or a demographic trend that has not been picked up by extensive polling, she said.
Click to expand...
 
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B

Brian Stirling

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2010
3,964
2
0
I'm not sure what the Math guys suspicion actually means. On the face of it he's saying heavily Republican districts, places where Republicans always win, may be cheating in a way that doesn't actually alter the end result. If not cheating results in the Republicans winning and cheating has the same result what's the purpose?

Of greater concern is the gerrymandering that permits one party to lose the popular vote yet win most of the seats -- this has surely resulted in an increase of Republicans in the House.

Now I'm not saying there isn't anything to this, but why would you risk being exposed for cheating if there wasn't a net gain in there? But, if there is cheating it needs to end...


Brian
 
glenn1

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,383
1,013
126
JSt0rm said:
republicans are ok with this kind of voter fraud.
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I wouldn't be. This random person may be completely off base, or may have uncovered a serious problem that needs fixing. She might not be the person to do the analysis, but it should be done.
 
P

PokerGuy

Lifer
Jul 2, 2005
13,650
201
101
I have no idea what credibility this person has, but if she can prove her assertions (or at least, show that they are likely to be correct), then by all means they should do a thorough investigation. Anyone found to be messing with the votes should see a nice jail cell for a long long time IMO, no matter which party or group they were trying to "help".

After reading the story I'm also not quite sure what exactly the assertion is.

“It is a pattern that has occurred repeatedly in elections across the United States.”
Click to expand...

Unless they think there's some sort of vast secret conspiracy in many many election stations all around the nation every election cycle, it's simply a statistical anomaly that needs to be researched.
 
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glenn1

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,383
1,013
126
PokerGuy said:
I have no idea what credibility this person has, but if she can prove her assertions (or at least, show that they are likely to be correct), then by all means they should do a thorough investigation. Anyone found to be messing with the votes should see a nice jail cell for a long long time IMO, no matter which party or group they were trying to "help".

After reading the story I'm also not quite sure what exactly the assertion is.



Unless they think there's some sort of vast secret conspiracy in many many election stations all around the nation every election cycle, it's simply a statistical anomaly that needs to be researched.
Click to expand...

Maybe voting patterns don't follow a normal distribution curve. Maybe the "pattern" she sees is a completely normal albeit multiple standard deviation outlier clump caused by natural variation. Then again, perhaps she's completely correct and there is fraud at work. But just because she's a mathematician with a theory doesn't mean the state should simply give her whatever she wants just because she asks for it any more than the government should open FBI files to everyone who thinks the Cubans actually shot JFK.
 
pcgeek11

pcgeek11

Lifer
Jun 12, 2005
22,378
4,998
136
“This is not just an anomaly that occurred in one place,” Clarkson said. “It is a pattern that has occurred repeatedly in elections across the United States.”

The pattern could be voter fraud or a demographic trend that has not been picked up by extensive polling, she said.
Click to expand...

Looks like she doesn't have a clue and is just raising an alarm bell.
 
shira

shira

Diamond Member
Jan 12, 2005
9,500
6
81
PokerGuy said:
I have no idea what credibility this person has, but if she can prove her assertions (or at least, show that they are likely to be correct), then by all means they should do a thorough investigation. Anyone found to be messing with the votes should see a nice jail cell for a long long time IMO, no matter which party or group they were trying to "help".

After reading the story I'm also not quite sure what exactly the assertion is.

Unless they think there's some sort of vast secret conspiracy in many many election stations all around the nation every election cycle, it's simply a statistical anomaly that needs to be researched.
Click to expand...

"Thorough investigation?" Why do we need a "thorough investigation" when we have an actual allegation of fraud? Republicans justify passing voter ID laws to prevent "voter ID fraud" that isn't even alleged to be occurring, in the name of "keeping elections honest," knowing that such laws cause a significant suppression of legitimate minority votes, votes which are overwhelmingly Democratic.

Here we have an actual allegation of fraud that involves a number of votes that dwarfs the tiny number of votes that may involve voter-ID fraud. Clearly, fast action is warranted. So let's quickly pass legislation that forces precincts where these statistical anomalies are seen to prove that their machines are hack-proof. And if no such proof is available, we don't count any votes from these precincts. The fact that such a law will overwhelmingly cause right-wing votes to not be counted is just, er, unfortunate. Yeah, that will "keep elections honest."
 
pcgeek11

pcgeek11

Lifer
Jun 12, 2005
22,378
4,998
136
JSt0rm said:
Yeah a ptHD in statistics doesn't have a clue. Must be liberal propaganda.
Click to expand...

Then tell me why She tacked on this little gem:

The pattern could be voter fraud or a demographic trend that has not been picked up by extensive polling, she said.
Click to expand...

It is this or it could be that or maybe something else.....

She doesn't know what it is. You really can't see this?

You are just looking for what you want to see.

I am not saying they shouldn't investigate it. They should, but most here are jumping right on the voter fraud with no solid evidence to back it up.

Statistics are BS. It all depends on how you want to read the numbers.
 
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shira

shira

Diamond Member
Jan 12, 2005
9,500
6
81
pcgeek11 said:
Then tell me why She tacked on this little gem:

It is this or it could be that or maybe something else.....

She doesn't know what it is. You really can't see this?

You are just looking for what you want to see.
Click to expand...

But Republicans tell us that just the possibility of voter-ID fraud is sufficient justification to pass voter ID laws to prevent fraud, even if those laws may have significant negative consequences.. So why isn't the mere possibility of fraud in this case sufficient justification for Republicans to pass additional laws to prevent whatever type of fraud THIS might be?

I mean, come on, we know for sure that Republicans are totally principled advocates for fraud-free elections, and no potential fraud is so implausible that it doesn't warrant aggressive laws that might have the net effect of disenfranchising far more legitimate votes than the number of potentially fraudulent votes prevented.
 
pcgeek11

pcgeek11

Lifer
Jun 12, 2005
22,378
4,998
136
shira said:
But Republicans tell us that just the possibility of voter-ID fraud is sufficient justification to pass voter ID laws to prevent fraud, even if those laws may have significant negative consequences.. So why isn't the mere possibility of fraud in this case sufficient justification for Republicans to pass additional laws to prevent whatever type of fraud THIS might be?

I mean, come on, we know for sure that Republicans are totally principled advocates for fraud-free elections, and no potential fraud is so implausible that it doesn't warrant aggressive laws that might have the net effect of disenfranchising far more legitimate votes than the number of potentially fraudulent votes prevented.
Click to expand...

Your straw man isn't working. Neither is your diversion.
 
pcgeek11

pcgeek11

Lifer
Jun 12, 2005
22,378
4,998
136
“This is not just an anomaly that occurred in one place,” Clarkson said. “It is a pattern that has occurred repeatedly in elections across the United States.”
Click to expand...

So the Republicans have figured out a way to hack all of the voting machines nation wide.

Wow I am impressed.

Or maybe it is something else...
 
pcgeek11

pcgeek11

Lifer
Jun 12, 2005
22,378
4,998
136
Oh and she also stated this:

“I do not know why this trend is there, but I know that the pattern is there and one way to establish that it is or is not election fraud is to go and do a physical audit of paper records of voting machines,”
Click to expand...

Voter fraud not found. It should be checked into, but until fraud is verified no one should jump to conclusions.
 
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C

cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,518
42
86
People who vote "tea party" are more likely politically active, set in their minds, more likely to vote early. Those who vote later, tend to be those not entirely sure of their choice, and tend towards the safer option.

There, just provided one plausible explanation to what has been observed.

Check out the machines. But for this is partisan enjoyment :p


I suppose the alternate point is the results are not matching polling, has anyone ever suggested an audit of the polling? :D
 
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shira

shira

Diamond Member
Jan 12, 2005
9,500
6
81
pcgeek11 said:
Your straw man isn't working. Neither is your diversion.
Click to expand...
What straw man? Did Republican lawmakers bother to do any investigations to determine if there was actual voter-ID fraud in their states before passing voter ID laws? Did Republicans lawmakers bother to do any investigations to determine if the negative consequences of proposed voter-ID laws might hugely outweigh any possible benefit? And did righty ATPN posters advocate a "go slow" approach to voter-ID laws. Oh, gee, I guess not on all counts.

So what can we lefties conclude except that fighting voting fraud is so important in Republican-controlled states, and in the minds of righties in general, that just the possibility of fraud is sufficient justification for passing aggressive laws to make fraud impossible, regardless of the negative consequences of such laws.

Yet here we have a new, potential source of fraud, and suddenly righty posters here on ATPN are advocating a cautious approach. Could it possibly be that righties are in fact intellectual frauds, driven solely by the the pursuit of political advantage?

Say it ain't so.
 
M

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
74,765
6,770
126
All I see is the usual brain defectives who fall instantly for the notion that democrats are perpetrating massive voter fraud, and have used that paranoid delusion to actually limit the rights of poor voters, tending to blow off any notion that there may be Republican generated voter fraud. If anything is done to try to put the issue to bed I'm sure we'll hear screams of funds wasted on frivolous investigations.

Complements to those of you who feel that voter fraud by anybody is wrong.
 
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