This game won't be determined by Colts offense but by Colts defense. Even on a bad day, Manning's going to score some points; the key is if the Colts defense can hold off the Pats attack and get the ball back to their offense. Another factor is going to be who wins the turnover battle. Manning is susceptible to INTs against the Pats defense and if he can't keep those to a minimum, the Colts are in trouble.
And this is another year that the playoff games will far outshine the Superbowl game. After this weekend's upcoming round, you then have the AFC Championship game. This Colts/Pats game and the AFC Championship game will be way more entertaining than the Superbowl will be.