Zogby/Reuters . . . skunk.
Rasmussen . . . skunk.
RCP average . . . within margin of error . . . but still Cardin.
Nice wishful thinking thread . . . SurveyUSA notwithstanding.
Admittedly, I wouldn't mind if Steele won. As long as Democrats get their net:
Talent, Burns, Corker, Allen, Kean, DeWine, Kyl would be fine.
Chafee and Lieberman can alternate caucuses on every other month. Depending on the new GOP leadership in the Senate, the reception may be quite chilly for Chafee. Is it possible that Trent may rise again?
Rasmussen . . . skunk.
RCP average . . . within margin of error . . . but still Cardin.
Nice wishful thinking thread . . . SurveyUSA notwithstanding.
Admittedly, I wouldn't mind if Steele won. As long as Democrats get their net:
Talent, Burns, Corker, Allen, Kean, DeWine, Kyl would be fine.
Chafee and Lieberman can alternate caucuses on every other month. Depending on the new GOP leadership in the Senate, the reception may be quite chilly for Chafee. Is it possible that Trent may rise again?
Chafee?
RI is one of the "gimme" Dem pickups this cycle along with OH, PA. Chafee is down ~10 points to Whitehouse.Back to MD... Dems don't appear to be biting their nails over this race.
JD50
Lifer
- Sep 4, 2005
- 11,750
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Originally posted by: Painman
Chafee?
Back to MD... Dems don't appear to be biting their nails over this race.
Of course not, they know that they have a stranglehold on MD and that MD voters are too apathetic to vote anyone else into office. Ehrlich brought us from a major deficit to a nice surplus without raising taxes, and he will probably get voted out.......
Lol, one poll showing the two candidates tied and now it's all of a sudden THE SURPRISE race of 2006. Don't put so much stock into polls.
JD50
Lifer
- Sep 4, 2005
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Most of the polls are showing a close race, last I heard was that Steele was within 10 percentage points of Cardin. In Maryland, that is a huge deal, even if he doesn't win. A Republican in Maryland even coming close to an incumbent Democrat is unheard of. But I kinda agree, I dont really like polls.
I put little stock in to the polls as most are skewed Democrat from the get-go.
It is interesting to note that the NY Times (aka DNC mouthpiece) has begun to pull back from its optimism of a landslide for Dems.
Of course, with the election less than 2 weeks out, these pollsters are starting to realize they better get the numbers a bit more accurate or they are going to be ridiculed.
OH and PA have been looking bad for the GOP pretty much the entire election cycle... in any case, if I were a betting man I wouldn't put any $ down on a Dem takeover of the Senate this year. Sweeping MO, MT, TN, VA is magical thinking for Dems, and with Lieberman poised to keep his seat, I think they'd have to take all 7 of (MO, MT, OH, PA, RI, TN, VA) plus hold on to (MD, NJ) to render him irrelevant. He owes the GOP for keeping his seat and therefore might caucus with GOP in the event of a tie.
LunarRay
Diamond Member
- Mar 2, 2003
- 9,993
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How on Earth can Lieberman be considered a GOP lap dog.. He was the VP nominee of the Democrats and his core values are left of center. That he supports the Iraqi issue and some other Right sided issues is reasonable from any member of Congress.. They SHOULD vote their positions..
I think you'll see him drop the 'independent' status and fully become a Democrat again.. just a temporary move to secure a seat is all.. Hillary Clinton probably made as many pro Bush Iraqi statements as anyone..
I think you'll see him drop the 'independent' status and fully become a Democrat again.. just a temporary move to secure a seat is all.. Hillary Clinton probably made as many pro Bush Iraqi statements as anyone..
I'm from Maryland.
Steele doesn't have a snowball in hell chance of winning.
I voted against him in this election, not "for" Ben Cardin.
I can never forgive him for his stem cells comment.
Steele doesn't have a snowball in hell chance of winning.
I voted against him in this election, not "for" Ben Cardin.
I can never forgive him for his stem cells comment.
LR, Lieberman was initially spotted as a senatorial candidate back in '88 by William F. Buckley in a bid to unseat liberal GOP senator Lowell Wiecker. His Y2K VP candidacy has a lot to do with the Gore camp wishing to distance itself from Clinton, and Joe was notable for having sided with the GOP during the Lewinsky scandal. He will be indebted to the GOP when he returns to the senate in '07, largely due to grassroots GOP support in CT.
From the latest Quinnipiac University Poll - Oct 20:
He's polling with GOP voters almost 2:1 over Dems. I don't believe anyone can bank on his promises to return to the Dem caucus come January, esp. if a tie for senatorial control comes down to him, and the GOP offers him a very comfy chairmanship in order to retain a majority.
If there's a tie in the Senate, Cheney will cast the tie breaking vote.
I don't know if he'll return to the Dem. caucus, but he won't be joining the GOP...I'm sure of it.
What benefit is there for him to remain as "I" after the elections and not join the "D" caucus?
Absolutely none.
the Republicans have internal numbers on all these races. That is why they have bailed on Ohio and now are putting money into Montana again because that race there has tightened. The Republicans also announced they will put up to 5 million into New Jersey but nothing yet into Maryland. Why not. Because even though Steele may try to run against both parties, he is trailing in most polls. That SUSA is the only one showing the race even. All other non-partisan polls show a 4-15% range with a 7% average lead for Cardin.
Here is the Cardin ad along with the Michael J Fox ad that sealed the deal for Cardin:
Steele at the Republican National Convention
"the standard bearer of these convictions is George W. Bush"
If you want to know how bad it is, the Republicans released an internal poll showing Cardin with only a 2% lead. The bad thing was Steele was at 39% and they didn't push the undecideds. The Democrats released their own internals and had Cardin at 52% and Steele stuck at 40%. I invite the Republicans to throw money into the Baltimore markets.
Here is the Cardin ad along with the Michael J Fox ad that sealed the deal for Cardin:
Steele at the Republican National Convention
"the standard bearer of these convictions is George W. Bush"
If you want to know how bad it is, the Republicans released an internal poll showing Cardin with only a 2% lead. The bad thing was Steele was at 39% and they didn't push the undecideds. The Democrats released their own internals and had Cardin at 52% and Steele stuck at 40%. I invite the Republicans to throw money into the Baltimore markets.
Lothar, it's a foregone conclusion that Cheney will vote for a GOP Majority Leader in the event of a tie after the election. The political calculus that Dems are looking at and squirming over is this:
Current Senate makeup: 44 (D), 55 (R), 1 (I) (Jeffords of VT who caucuses with Dems).
Possible 2007 makeup: 49 (D), 49 (R), 2 (I)
Give Jefffords to the Dems and Cheney to the Pubs, you have (50) (50) (1)
Lieberman becomes the tiebreaker for Senate control.
I don't think the Dems are going to pick up enough seats for this scenario to come into being, but if you look at the flimsy support the Dem Senatorial caucus has put behind Ned Lamont, it's obvious that they're hedging their bets.
- Jul 28, 2006
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As I pointed out in the OP Steele is most likely NOT going to win.
However, even a 5-10 point loss would be an amazing achievement.
In the last three Senate races the Democrat won by 30+ points in each of them.
The fact that the race is so close is a testament to the ability of Steele to attract black voters and keep the Republican base.
Do you think the fact that Steele is getting such a large part of the black vote lead to the idea of drafting Condi for VP in 2008. If the GOP raises its share of the black vote from 11% in 2004 to any where near say 20% and the Democrats would be in awful shape.
However, even a 5-10 point loss would be an amazing achievement.
In the last three Senate races the Democrat won by 30+ points in each of them.
The fact that the race is so close is a testament to the ability of Steele to attract black voters and keep the Republican base.
Do you think the fact that Steele is getting such a large part of the black vote lead to the idea of drafting Condi for VP in 2008. If the GOP raises its share of the black vote from 11% in 2004 to any where near say 20% and the Democrats would be in awful shape.
Is it really? Steele was hand picked by Karl Rove to win in Maryland, and he's not going to. A loss is a loss is a loss is a loss in politics.
Unfortunately, whites are adverse to voting for minorities, so the gain might not be as much as you think, when you consider how many Republicans he will lose. Maryland Republicans are not the same Republicans of Alabama, Georgia, and the rest of the South.
The problem with that theory is that Republicans (like Democrats) are NOT all interchangeable between states, Marylanders are a lot more liberal overall than more southern and western states, and that's not just the number of Dems but the overall views of ALL the people there. As totalcommand pointed out, even Maryland Republicans are more liberal than, say, Georgia Republicans.
The problem with the "Lieberman jumping ship" theory is that other than his views on the Iraq war, he's not actually very conservative...at least compared to the Republicans. While the Iraq war is a pretty hot-button issue, especially for CT Dems, I don't think that one issue is going to make Lieberman jump ship and side with the Republicans. And given the state he represents, shifting Republican would doom any chance he'd have of serving beyond this term. I just don't see him doing that just to help the Republicans out, especially since I imagine the Dems will do everything possible to "kiss and make-up".
LunarRay
Diamond Member
- Mar 2, 2003
- 9,993
- 1
- 76
If push came to shove Lieberman would not do more than vote his normal way on the issues.. He don't really owe the GOP...
He has 48% vs 6% for the Elphant and 36% for the Donkey and speakin of which .. Lamont is really a 'no show'..
The GOP in Conn. would prefer Lieberman over Lamont any day so that is not a good indicator for which side of the isle he will sit... I say on the donkey side..
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