Why Polls Are Skewed - Esp. the Current Gallup Polls

[conjur]

I've been looking for links showing the makeup of the latest Gallup poll since it shows to be quite the outlier of polls (even given the recent 5% swing back toward Kerry).

I found this so far:
http://www.theleftcoaster.com/

Registered Voter Sample Party ID ? Poll of September 13-15
Reflected Bush Winning by 52%-44%

Total Sample: 935
GOP: 357 (38%)
Dem: 311 (33%)
Ind: 263 (28%)

Registered Voter Sample Party ID ? Poll of September 24-26
Reflected Bush Winning by 54%-41%

Total Sample: 1006
GOP: 400 (40%)
Dem: 315 (31%)
Ind: 281 (28%)

This is the breakdown (by party affiliation) of the 2000 election:

GOP: 35%
Dem: 39%
Ind: 27%

 

[umbrella39]

Gallop defenders will just say that after calling all these people that was the break down. As if it is not within the realm of possibilities that they know exactly who they are calling ahead of time.

Side question: Has any oneone on this board even once been contacted by Gallop? For that matter know anyone who has been? I don't.

Who the hell are they calling? I think I know, they are calling the Neilson Families for thier input. When they aren't faithfully watching TV of course

 

[CycloWizard]

Even if you remove the 'party bias' using statistics, it's still clear that Bush is ahead. Polls are fruitless anyway - who knows what fraction of Reps and Dems will show up at the polls in five weeks?

 

[Piano Man]

Even more so. These polls are of likely voters, which discounts a huge number of people who are definately voting in this election, because they are PISSED. Second, these poll don't count people who use cell phones as thier primary phones, which are young people, who definately lean more D than R.

 

[conjur]

Originally posted by: umbrella39
Gallop defenders will just say that after calling all these people that was the break down. As if it is not within the realm of possibilities that they know exactly who they are calling ahead of time.

Side question: Has any oneone on this board even once been contacted by Gallop? For that matter know anyone who has been? I don't.

Who the hell are they calling? I think I know, they are calling the Neilson Families for thier input. When they aren't faithfully watching TV of course

And none of the polling groups call cell phones. How many people rely upon them almost solely? I know I do...solely...no land line for almost a year now.

Zogby at least corrects for that and other variables, Gallup doesn't.
Rasmussen also corrects for such variables and for party affiliation.

 

[dahunan]

All the Republicans are home listening to talk radio and watching FoxNews

 

[ntdz]

and the breakdown of the 2002 election (most recent) was more republicans than democrats by a fairly wide margin. Not all polls do the special Republican sampling. For example, the pew poll released today does not and it has the same identical 8 point lead for bush as the gallup poll. I guess you'll find a reason to discredit the pew poll b/c it has results you dont like.

 

[gutharius]

Abolish polling!

 

[nageov3t]

I'm still hoping for a suprise youth voter turn-out, but I'm also expecting to be disappointed

 

[Czar]

when gallup or anyone else conducts these polls they generate a list of random ~1000 people, they call them and then ask the questions. I realy realy doubt they pick knowingly a set number of random repubs and a set number of random democrats and so on.

 

[nageov3t]

it's been a few years since I took a sociology class dedicated entirely to how polls are run, but assuming one of the questions they ask is "what is your political affiliation," they can simply weight the results to match the projected percentages of likely voters.

 

[Gravity]

That's interesting. I wonder if they get their R's and D's from the peeps they called or from a list.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

IMHO: Polls are stupid but....

I have never voted before as I feal as though you are choosing between two criminals.

But I am voting anti-Bush this year. I have actually registered. I think the people that don't normally vote are going to come out of hte woodwork and get Bush the hell out. I like how he has al these ideas. Where has he been the past 4 years?

 

[nageov3t]

I have never voted before as I feal as though you are choosing between two criminals.

I hate that argument. as Seth McFarlan (of Family Guy fame) said, "people who don't vote are douchebags"

seriously, criminal or not, there's gotta be one whose politics you side more with. not to mention the supreme importance (even moreso than the presidential election, IMO) of local and congressional elections.

 

[Luck JF]

Well Kerry has no chance to win so I am going to vote for Bush. A vote for Kerry would be a wasted vote.

 

[Chadder007]

Originally posted by: conjur

Originally posted by: umbrella39
Gallop defenders will just say that after calling all these people that was the break down. As if it is not within the realm of possibilities that they know exactly who they are calling ahead of time.

Side question: Has any oneone on this board even once been contacted by Gallop? For that matter know anyone who has been? I don't.

Who the hell are they calling? I think I know, they are calling the Neilson Families for thier input. When they aren't faithfully watching TV of course

And none of the polling groups call cell phones. How many people rely upon them almost solely? I know I do...solely...no land line for almost a year now.

Zogby at least corrects for that and other variables, Gallup doesn't.
Rasmussen also corrects for such variables and for party affiliation.

What....so only Cell phone users vote a certain way?

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Luck JF
Well Kerry has no chance to win so I am going to vote for Bush. A vote for Kerry would be a wasted vote.

:Q

 

[conjur]

Originally posted by: Chadder007

Originally posted by: conjur

Originally posted by: umbrella39
Gallop defenders will just say that after calling all these people that was the break down. As if it is not within the realm of possibilities that they know exactly who they are calling ahead of time.

Side question: Has any oneone on this board even once been contacted by Gallop? For that matter know anyone who has been? I don't.

Who the hell are they calling? I think I know, they are calling the Neilson Families for thier input. When they aren't faithfully watching TV of course

And none of the polling groups call cell phones. How many people rely upon them almost solely? I know I do...solely...no land line for almost a year now.

Zogby at least corrects for that and other variables, Gallup doesn't.
Rasmussen also corrects for such variables and for party affiliation.

What....so only Cell phone users vote a certain way?

Maybe, maybe not. Maybe a % of cell phone-only people are younger, who tend to vote Democratic. Also, it's reported that many inner city youth and young families use cell phones only (prepaids) and they typically vote more Democratic.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: Chadder007
What....so only Cell phone users vote a certain way?

Must be the Left's new secret plan...getting out the cell phone vote

CsG

 

[Triumph]

WHO CARES ABOUT POLLING? WHY DO THEY KEEP RAMMING DOWN OUR THROATS THE RESULTS OF THE LATEST POLL? I'M NOT GOING TO CHANGE MY VOTE BECAUSE OF WHAT THE REST OF THE PEOPLE ARE DOING, SO WHY DOES ANYONE EVEN TALK ABOUT IT?

It just makes me so f'ing mad that all the news media focuses on during an election is who is leading in the polls and what some late breaking development will do to the polls. I DON'T F&*#*ING CARE. GIVE ME REAL NEWS AND STOP FOCUSING ON THIS GARBAGE.

 

[conjur]

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: Chadder007
What....so only Cell phone users vote a certain way?

Must be the Left's new secret plan...getting out the cell phone vote

CsG

I see you're reading your talking points memos. There's talk, esp. from the rags like Newsweek, that the Democrats plan on stealing this election by <gasp> registering more people!!!

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: conjur

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: Chadder007
What....so only Cell phone users vote a certain way?

Must be the Left's new secret plan...getting out the cell phone vote

CsG

I see you're reading your talking points memos. There's talk, esp. from the rags like Newsweek, that the Democrats plan on stealing this election by <gasp> registering more people!!!

Dead people?

Ofcourse you missed the humor in my previous post and ASSumed it was something serious. Get over yourself already, conjur. "talking points memos" :roll:

CsG

 

[heartsurgeon]

i don't trust any single poll, i particularly believe Zogby has gone bonkers..

all that said, if a preponderance of polls sshow clearly show the same thing, i suspect that reflects reality.

by the way, i get called at least once a week on my cell phone by a polling agency..

maybe i'm the reason the polls are skewed (multiple cell phones!!)

 

[TastesLikeChicken]

Current poll numbers showing Bush in the lead are a bounce from the RNC; the Rather National Clusterf*&amp;^.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: Chadder007
What....so only Cell phone users vote a certain way?

Must be the Left's new secret plan...getting out the cell phone vote

CsG

I like this one, I knew there was a reason I put all 4 cells under my name

Agree with the poll accuracy concerns though, Gallup &amp; others "normalize" the statistics in an effort to make the results more accurate.

I would argue that the "normalization" is significantly skewed.

5 weeks or so &amp; we'll see how accurate tha poll are, &amp; it'll be a long 5 weeks.