- Jul 17, 2002
- 9,717
- 2
- 0
First off I want to point out that as an outsider looking in, even though I carry libertarian ideals at heart; I think the best thing for the US right now is Democratic leadership to repair some of the failed policies of the current administration. (namely fiscal and foreign policy issues)
Even though I will be cheering on and supporting the Democratic nominee, I think John McCain will win the general election in the fall unless something significantly changes before that time. If you listen to what the Democrats are talking about and you hear the tone they have, and compare that to the tone and reputation the Republicans have you will see that a win will not be as easy as Democrats think.
1) Iraq War. Even though McCain and Bush have the same stance on the Iraq war, when it comes to campaign time; McCain will focus on his history as a respected military man and how he is better able to "fix" Iraq. He will have evidence of pushing for the "surge" well before Bush pushed for it and he will focus on the initial mismanagement rather than the decision to go in or not. The tone will be positive and hopeful rather than the Democrats pessimism who claim that the war is not winnable and will take a defeatist position. While I don't support the war and think an exit strategy is needed for financial reasons, this hope and rally of patriotism will lure a lot of Americans to give McCain a chance to "win" the war. After the amount of money spent there and the fear mongering of a potential chaotic terrorist state; this will really help McCain given the situation.
2) Fiscal Policy. Americans understand the financial situation of the US government and with Democrats pushing for more spending and universal healthcare, I don't think the average middle class independent will support additional spending with an already huge deficit. McCain will flaunt his past initiatives where he has cut government fat and use this to show that he will bring spending restraint to Washington and distance himself from the habits of other Republicans. McCain will run on spending cuts (whether he does it or not is yet to be seen and highly doubtful) and this will look far more attractive than spending increases and increased taxation from the Democrats. Right or wrong politically McCain is on the right side of this issue and more people will be attracted to that message than what the Democrats are offering.
3) Economy. While the Republicans have been poor on spending restraint and may have cut taxes too deeply and perhaps disproportionately; they still have the reputation of being the party best able to handle economic issues. I don't agree with this mindset at all but you will have people like Romney and other business type Republicans on the campaign trail talking in a way that will make people think the Republicans have the best solutions for the American economy. Most voters aren't in tune with macroeconomics or domestic economic policy, but I think they will flock to those who are perceived to understand the issues and I think this favors the Republican brand rather than the Democratic.
4) Bush. Bush is a hugely unpopular president and I think McCain will have enough evidence in the past where he has had significant differences of opinion with Bush; even though in reality these two have very similar positions on almost all issues. McCain is playing his cards right by not pandering to the evangelicals publicly. I think when it comes to election time, social conservatives will look at the Democratic positions on hot button issues and would not vote for them. McCain by not publicly pandering to this group will gain more middle ground (independents) who he already appeals to and he can quietly advertise his true positions on social issues and promise social conservatives judges to invigorate the social conservative voters.
All in all the message carried from McCain will look very attractive, positive and patriotic after it goes through the spin machine and I think the Democratic message will be a stark contrast being negative, defeatist, and less responsible. The Democrats thought they had 2004 in the bag, they were so anxious to get united against Bush, they nominated the guy who won the first primary instead of considering Edwards or Clark (both of whom would have done much better). Also most long and drawn out presidential nominating processes tend to favor the other party. The Democrats are overly confident with their prospects in the fall and really need to change their message, because from what I see...McCain will win.
Even though I will be cheering on and supporting the Democratic nominee, I think John McCain will win the general election in the fall unless something significantly changes before that time. If you listen to what the Democrats are talking about and you hear the tone they have, and compare that to the tone and reputation the Republicans have you will see that a win will not be as easy as Democrats think.
1) Iraq War. Even though McCain and Bush have the same stance on the Iraq war, when it comes to campaign time; McCain will focus on his history as a respected military man and how he is better able to "fix" Iraq. He will have evidence of pushing for the "surge" well before Bush pushed for it and he will focus on the initial mismanagement rather than the decision to go in or not. The tone will be positive and hopeful rather than the Democrats pessimism who claim that the war is not winnable and will take a defeatist position. While I don't support the war and think an exit strategy is needed for financial reasons, this hope and rally of patriotism will lure a lot of Americans to give McCain a chance to "win" the war. After the amount of money spent there and the fear mongering of a potential chaotic terrorist state; this will really help McCain given the situation.
2) Fiscal Policy. Americans understand the financial situation of the US government and with Democrats pushing for more spending and universal healthcare, I don't think the average middle class independent will support additional spending with an already huge deficit. McCain will flaunt his past initiatives where he has cut government fat and use this to show that he will bring spending restraint to Washington and distance himself from the habits of other Republicans. McCain will run on spending cuts (whether he does it or not is yet to be seen and highly doubtful) and this will look far more attractive than spending increases and increased taxation from the Democrats. Right or wrong politically McCain is on the right side of this issue and more people will be attracted to that message than what the Democrats are offering.
3) Economy. While the Republicans have been poor on spending restraint and may have cut taxes too deeply and perhaps disproportionately; they still have the reputation of being the party best able to handle economic issues. I don't agree with this mindset at all but you will have people like Romney and other business type Republicans on the campaign trail talking in a way that will make people think the Republicans have the best solutions for the American economy. Most voters aren't in tune with macroeconomics or domestic economic policy, but I think they will flock to those who are perceived to understand the issues and I think this favors the Republican brand rather than the Democratic.
4) Bush. Bush is a hugely unpopular president and I think McCain will have enough evidence in the past where he has had significant differences of opinion with Bush; even though in reality these two have very similar positions on almost all issues. McCain is playing his cards right by not pandering to the evangelicals publicly. I think when it comes to election time, social conservatives will look at the Democratic positions on hot button issues and would not vote for them. McCain by not publicly pandering to this group will gain more middle ground (independents) who he already appeals to and he can quietly advertise his true positions on social issues and promise social conservatives judges to invigorate the social conservative voters.
All in all the message carried from McCain will look very attractive, positive and patriotic after it goes through the spin machine and I think the Democratic message will be a stark contrast being negative, defeatist, and less responsible. The Democrats thought they had 2004 in the bag, they were so anxious to get united against Bush, they nominated the guy who won the first primary instead of considering Edwards or Clark (both of whom would have done much better). Also most long and drawn out presidential nominating processes tend to favor the other party. The Democrats are overly confident with their prospects in the fall and really need to change their message, because from what I see...McCain will win.
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