Why it's time to buy

[HeXploiT]

Chart

***I place no emphases whatsoever on fundamentals.***
***Note that this has nothing to do with the direction of the economy.

Notice the relative strength index. According to the RSI DOW is more oversold than we've been in almost 30 years.

I've been spending all week.
I still believe there are rough waters ahead however.

 

[Xavier434]

Cheers :beer:

I hope it pays off for you. It probably will as long as you are patient.

 

[HeXploiT]

This has got to be worth at least one bump.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: Perry404
This has got to be worth at least one bump.

Yeah, like we are going to listen to a guy who was wrong about GW Bush for 7.5 years?

 

[chess9]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Perry404
This has got to be worth at least one bump.

Yeah, like we are going to listen to a guy who was wrong about GW Bush for 7.5 years?

Yeah, but what if he's right about this?

I don't think we are close to the bottom yet. Give it another month, IMHO. (NB: Don't buy stocks without being able to LOSE all your money in this market. You must have balls and bucks to play now.) But, No telling where the bottom is as this is an irrational market. Fundamentals don't mean shit right now, IMHO.

These are my views. I'm sure I'm wrong and someone will be kind enough to point out the error of my ways. Thank you in advance.

-Robert

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Perry404
This has got to be worth at least one bump.

Yeah, like we are going to listen to a guy who was wrong about GW Bush for 7.5 years?

:laugh: and at same time

 

[Dissipate]

We may not even be close to a bottom. Right now the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is about 20. But that could easily drop to 8. At a P/E of 8 the DOW would be at about 5000. All the pro-stock market pundits on CNBC and other media outlets are quick to call a bottom, but it is way too early to tell. Given that the market is still recovering from the largest bubble in history a P/E ratio of 20 seems high to me. Real estate prices certainly have NOT hit bottom, we we could see more bank failures and slashed earnings reports in the months ahead.

 

[dullard]

Similar graph, but in much more clear format.

As you can see, stocks are finally where they should be (they should not move strongly up nor strongly down). That isn't a signal to buy it is more of a signal to hold. We aren't oversold, we are just back to normal.

Bottom-right graph, why it may still be time to sell.
I don't fully expect the S&P to drop that far (an 85% drop to 200). But, if history repeats itself, it will.

 

[Jaskalas]

I?m going to go out on a limb and say ? no, not time to buy. People have been hit hard, and the result has only begun. 2009 might see the bottom, but 2008 will not.

 

[techs]

Basically, you have to ask yourself, what would the market be at if we didn't have the US bailout, and the bailout from the other countries around the world.
I personally could have seen a spiral down to 6,000 for the Dow.
Now what if the bailouts are only cushinioning the fall? With at least 3 quarters of bad earnings results from major corporations I believe we still haven't seen bottom. While we headed off a crash, I think we will still see a gradual decline for awhile. And once peope see the market gradually declining ove time they will mora and more make decisions to get out of the market.
We could very easily see 6000 but I am still hoping for a 7,000 bottom, the same bottom I predicted over a year ago when I said we were in for a crash.

 

[alien42]

there are more trading opportunities on big board stocks than there have ever been. they are trading with the volotility that OTC and pinksheets stocks used to.

its time to trade, not invest.

 

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: alien42
there are more trading opportunities on big board stocks than there have ever been. they are trading with the volotility that OTC and pinksheets stocks used to.

its time to trade, not invest.

Too bad the vast majority of people out there don't have the time/resources to be a day trader.

 

[Ferocious]

Considering typical bear market bottom valuations, the Dow should bottom out in the low 6000 range.

However if this is one of those nasty bears, like the one that finally ended in 1982....then the Dow should see a bottom of around 4000.

 

[daniel49]

Originally posted by: Perry404
Chart

***I place no emphases whatsoever on fundamentals.***
***Note that this has nothing to do with the direction of the economy.

Notice the relative strength index. According to the RSI DOW is more oversold than we've been in almost 30 years.

I've been spending all week.
I still believe there are rough waters ahead however.

so do you put in stops?
short?
leverage?

 

[quest55720]

I will be increasing my 401k money to try and take advantage of this buying opertunity. I would love to dump post tax dollars in but I am trying to pay down debts.

 

[glenn1]

Originally posted by: Perry404
Why it's time to buy

Now especially, what you buy is always more important than when you buy.

 

[HeXploiT]

Originally posted by: daniel49

Originally posted by: Perry404
Chart

***I place no emphases whatsoever on fundamentals.***
***Note that this has nothing to do with the direction of the economy.

Notice the relative strength index. According to the RSI DOW is more oversold than we've been in almost 30 years.

I've been spending all week.
I still believe there are rough waters ahead however.

so do you put in stops?
short?
leverage?

I swingtrade mostly and daytrade partially so yeah.
These days I prefer to have cash available on the opening but anything I leave in has a stop. I will short as well but I prefer to make money going the other way. It just feels right.

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Perry404
This has got to be worth at least one bump.

Yeah, like we are going to listen to a guy who was wrong about GW Bush for 7.5 years?

I have no idea what that means. I hope I wasn't just accused of being a Bush supporter.

 

[ericlp]

This is absolutely the WORST time to buy.... Unless you were buying gold or realestate for pennies on the dollar.

Anyone could have figure out what that meant. You hope you weren't? WAKE UP, you were and you did...

 

[HeXploiT]

Originally posted by: ericlp
This is absolutely the WORST time to buy.... Unless you were buying gold or realestate for pennies on the dollar.

Anyone could have figure out what that meant. You hope you weren't? WAKE UP, you were and you did...

Be greedy when others are scared.
Here is your birthday present. DIG, MOO, SLV.

 

[Infohawk]

According to the OP's chart, if we took 71 to 85 we have a lot further to drop.

 

[mozirry]

actually, alot of people I talk to are getting confidence back in investing. They just want to hear the word "bottom" and money will start to feed in

people want that post-depression bang...well, young people =)

 

[HeXploiT]

Originally posted by: Infohawk
According to the OP's chart, if we took 71 to 85 we have a lot further to drop.

The thing is the market is never 100% predictable. All we can do is look for signs. Right now we're looking at a bullish double/triple bottom around 8300.
Extremely bullish.

 

[GroundMeat]

I hope you're trading the commodities not holding them.

 

[nergee]

long tail down reversal....may be good for a pop trade but watch out below....