Why is no one talking about the elephant in the room, the coming 20-50% tariffs

[24601]

Given Trump's seeming willingness to go ahead with all his previous tariff threats, we can assume that a 20-50% tariff/sanction/tax/embargo/whatever will be in place before the late 2019 product launches for all the various US technology companies with manufacturing/assembly/etc facilities in China (IE, all of them).

They may even have double-dip tariffs for the components that are shipped twice.

It's probably a good idea to buy the 9900k, a mobo, and ram before being locked into buying only what is produced in South Korea (assuming trump doesn't go through with the 20% tariffs on South Korea IT products) [in this example, mostly talking about the memory fab output from SK Hynix and Samsung]

This video sums it up nicely

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IwTOndeZ-IU

It's quite disconcerting that no one is talking about this and that consumers are unaware that they should be upgrading on the holiday 2018 cycle to hedge against this coming storm.

As much as I'd like to wait for ice-lake (10nm troubles pushing it back to Q3-Q4 2019 for consumer platform, even later for server platform) and cascade-lake (apparently pushed back to Q2 2019 due to meltdown/spectre hardware fixes), it probably is the smart move to purchase before the tariffs hit to lock in the price until the next upgrade cycle.

I'm surprised at the complete radio silence on all the (technical, not political) boards on this obvious eventuality.

PS: This is not a post about the politics of this and that, this is a post about the mechanics of the most likely future projections on the things pertaining to this sub-forum. Keep this in mind if/when you reply to this thread.

 

[Perknose]

Moved from the CPU Forum to that august deliberative body now known as OT Discussion Club.

Perknose
Forum Director

 

[Red Squirrel]

I hope Justin Trudeau is going to be smart about this. Might be a way to get more tech industry in Canada.

 

[ultimatebob]

I think that China will cave before the tariffs get that extreme. They need us for sales revenue more than we need them for poorly made mass produced crap.

 

[Carson Dyle]

P/N this shit.

 

[MagnusTheBrewer]

I think that China will cave before the tariffs get that extreme. They need us for sales revenue more than we need them for poorly made mass produced crap.

Morally yes. Practically, what planet do you live on?

 

[Carson Dyle]

I think that China will cave before the tariffs get that extreme. They need us for sales revenue more than we need them for poorly made mass produced crap.

I'm old enough to remember when Japan had exactly that same sort of reputation in America about the goods they were producing. But by the 1970s their quality made most consumer goods produced in the US look like garbage. China is in exactly the same spot now. If they're producing crap, it's only because of the price-point sought by the companies putting those products on the shelves. They can make goods to any standard level wanted now. If the same goods were made in the US, they'd be every bit as crappy, and twice as expensive.

 

[IronWing]

I'm old enough to remember when Japan had exactly that same sort of reputation in America about the goods they were producing. But by the 1970s their quality made most consumer goods produced in the US look like garbage. China is in exactly the same spot now. If they're producing crap, it's only because of the price-point sought by the companies putting those products on the shelves. They can make goods to any standard level wanted now. If the same goods were made in the US, they'd be every bit as crappy, and twice as expensive.

Yep, the bottom of my very nice camera is stamped, "Made in China."

 

[Muse]

I'm old enough to remember when Japan had exactly that same sort of reputation in America about the goods they were producing. But by the 1970s their quality made most consumer goods produced in the US look like garbage. China is in exactly the same spot now. If they're producing crap, it's only because of the price-point sought by the companies putting those products on the shelves. They can make goods to any standard level wanted now. If the same goods were made in the US, they'd be every bit as crappy, and twice as expensive.

IMO (i.e. based on what I've seen with my own eyes and my personal experience) Chinese goods that have reached the USA have never been anywhere near as crappy as what used to come here from Japan before their technology explosion. Made in Japan used to mean it's serious junk. Made in China is so ubiquitous that you expect to see it before you even look. A whole lot of what's made in China and sold in the USA is very decent. Yeah, you'd prefer to see Taiwan or Korea or Japan a lot of the time, but it's not always that stark a contrast.

Trump making news with his tariffs is just Trump being Trump. He craves attention, he's feeding his black hole of an ego. And at any cost. Much has already been sacrificed to his ego.

 

[ultimatebob]

Yep, the bottom of my very nice camera is stamped, "Made in China."

Sure, my iPhone says the same thing. I can't help but wonder how high the tariffs would need to be before Apple seriously considered building them in the US. Would it take? 20%? 40%? More??

 

[Red Squirrel]

I think China CAN make high quality stuff, they have much stronger manufacturing power than US or Canada combined. Most of the "crap stuff from China" is mostly because the companies that outsource to them want it built down to a price. I'm sure if you want something high quality and you're willing to pay, China can build it. There's lot of stuff you can buy that is straight from China, ex: not branded by a north american company. Some of it is pure trash because they absolutely don't care about following any kind of safety standards since they don't have to, but some of it is also surprisingly good quality too. It's really hit and miss and depends on the price you want to pay.

The thing that I do hate is that China is allowed to sell stuff to us that does not need to be CSA, UL etc approved, and not only that but the shipping is free. But we can't sell within our own country without the shipping being super expensive and without having to get the product approved. There's more red tape to sell within our own country than there is for China to sell to us. I think that's BS. Then there's sales tax, if you buy locally you have to pay it. Shouldn't it be the other way around? Tax everything that is not local, and give a tax break to things that are. The government seems to do everything to encourage people/companies to buy from China.

 

[BarkingGhostar]

I think China CAN make high quality stuff, they have much stronger manufacturing power than US or Canada combined. Most of the "crap stuff from China" is mostly because the companies that outsource to them want it built down to a price. I'm sure if you want something high quality and you're willing to pay, China can build it. There's lot of stuff you can buy that is straight from China, ex: not branded by a north american company. Some of it is pure trash because they absolutely don't care about following any kind of safety standards since they don't have to, but some of it is also surprisingly good quality too. It's really hit and miss and depends on the price you want to pay.

The thing that I do hate is that China is allowed to sell stuff to us that does not need to be CSA, UL etc approved, and not only that but the shipping is free. But we can't sell within our own country without the shipping being super expensive and without having to get the product approved. There's more red tape to sell within our own country than there is for China to sell to us. I think that's BS. Then there's sales tax, if you buy locally you have to pay it. Shouldn't it be the other way around? Tax everything that is not local, and give a tax break to things that are. The government seems to do everything to encourage people/companies to buy from China.

All right you right-wing Commie.

 

[lxskllr]

China makes acceptable electronics cause it's robots doing the work. For everything else, mediocre is about the best you can expect.

 

[darkswordsman17]

Sure, my iPhone says the same thing. I can't help but wonder how high the tariffs would need to be before Apple seriously considered building them in the US. Would it take? 20%? 40%? More??

More than that. Its not just the cost, its that Apple has entire companies dedicated to producing stuff for them, exactly the way they want, and a labor force that is adept at doing it. Straight up, I think they'd struggle to find enough employees for Apple factories in the US. Even at quite good pay they'd have a problem simply getting enough Americans capable of doing that work, at the level and rate that Apple requires. So they'd have to have a lot of imported labor (which isn't going to go over real well with the same people pushing the tariffs) just to try and keep production going smoothly. They could maybe get there eventually but they'd be better off putting that money towards automating it, but either way they have huge capital costs that come into play, so they'd much rather just gradually transition there.

 

[Darwin333]

China makes acceptable electronics cause it's robots doing the work. For everything else, mediocre is about the best you can expect.

Then why are Chinese robots able to do it for FAR cheaper than US robots?

 

[lxskllr]

Then why are Chinese robots able to do it for FAR cheaper than US robots?

I think a lot of them are European robots, and probably Japanese too. The US never tried. Not sure why.

 

[Darwin333]

I think a lot of them are European robots, and probably Japanese too. The US never tried. Not sure why.

That doesn't answer the question, we can buy the same robots for the same amount of money and the companies get to claim they are opening some big plant in the US. So why are US companies investing in robots in China versus here at home?

 

[lxskllr]

That doesn't answer the question, we can buy the same robots for the same amount of money and the companies get to claim they are opening some big plant in the US. So why are US companies investing in robots in China versus here at home?

I said I didn't know, but if I had to guess, it's lax environmental and labor laws. The Chinese can dump their waste in the river, and if a worker gets decapitated by robot, there's plenty of replacements. Robots still need to be babysat. Not doing shit the right way saves tons of money.

 

[IronWing]

I think a lot of them are European robots, and probably Japanese too. The US never tried. Not sure why.

I know! I know! Because while other countries were wasting time and money on robots, American companies were busy increasing shareholder value by engaging in international labor arbitrage. What do I win?

 

[Newbian]

<--- P&N

 

[bbhaag]

That doesn't answer the question, we can buy the same robots for the same amount of money and the companies get to claim they are opening some big plant in the US. So why are US companies investing in robots in China versus here at home?

It's not jus cheaper automation that makes China more attractive. Cheaper land, cheaper cost of building, cheaper utilities ect are always considered over the the long term cost of building a manufacturing plant.
Hell here in the US I had a meeting with our mayor, city engineer, and head of development and planning. The engineer launches into a small tirade about how the exit of my parking lot of my business had extended beyond the legal easement and how the proper permits were not in place. We met at my business because of a proposed mutli functional recreational trail. He actually corrected the mayor when the mayor called it a bike path because a bike path requires special permits and requirements from the state and feds where a multi functional recreational trail does not.
The meeting was a bureaucratic mess of words and bullshit. I don't think China has the same types of restrictions like we do here in the US.

 

[Darwin333]

It's not jus cheaper automation that makes China more attractive. Cheaper land, cheaper cost of building, cheaper utilities ect are always considered over the the long term cost of building a manufacturing plant.
Hell here in the US I had a meeting with our mayor, city engineer, head of development and planning. The engineer launches into a small tirade about how the exit of my parking lot of my business had extended beyond the legal easement and how the proper permits were not in place. We met at my business because of a proposed mutli functional recreational trail. He actually corrected the mayor when the mayor called it a bike path because a bike path requires special permits from the state and feds where a multi functional recreational trail does not.
The meeting was bureaucratic mess of words and bullshit. I don't think China has the same types of restrictions like we do here in the US.

Yet governments trip over their cocks to try and land the next Intel factory or whoever. They compete against each other with reduced tax burdens and other incentives. So, again, I don't see why you would waste the absurdly great PR.

 

[dave_the_nerd]

It's not jus cheaper automation that makes China more attractive. Cheaper land, cheaper cost of building, cheaper utilities ect are always considered over the the long term cost of building a manufacturing plant.
Hell here in the US I had a meeting with our mayor, city engineer, and head of development and planning. The engineer launches into a small tirade about how the exit of my parking lot of my business had extended beyond the legal easement and how the proper permits were not in place. We met at my business because of a proposed mutli functional recreational trail. He actually corrected the mayor when the mayor called it a bike path because a bike path requires special permits and requirements from the state and feds where a multi functional recreational trail does not.
The meeting was a bureaucratic mess of words and bullshit. I don't think China has the same types of restrictions like we do here in the US.

They do. You can just make them go away for a few grand, vs. spending a relatively large sum of money in the US to actually comply with the rules.

 

[bbhaag]

Yet governments trip over their cocks to try and land the next Intel factory or whoever. They compete against each other with reduced tax burdens and other incentives. So, again, I don't see why you would waste the absurdly great PR.

Because the short term great pr doesn't out weight the over all cheaper cost of manufacturing in China.

 

[bbhaag]

They do. You can just make them go away for a few grand, vs. spending a relatively large sum of money in the US to actually comply with the rules.

I'm sure they do but not to the extent we do here. I wish I would have recorded this meeting for you guys to hear but it was an "off the record" meeting. The amount of bureaucratic bullshit that the government guys spewed was ridiculous. I even had my lawyer present for this meeting and afterwards I talked to him about it and even he admitted that it was evident that they would make my life a living hell if I decide to fight the proposed path of this multi functional recreational trail.
The city has deeper pockets then a small business owner like me so a court battle would be out of the question.