Why is less than 100% a failure?

[ExpertNovice]

I'm always amazed at this feat of logic. Here are some examples.

We heard opponents of the Star Wars programs state that since a single missle could get through the defense system we should not build such a defense.

Powell Says Border Walls Won't Work
The topic reads "Powell Says Border Walls Won't Work" but Powell actually said;

"The Berlin Wall did not work perfectly and the wall that the Israelis are putting up is not going to work perfectly," Powell said. "So, a wall alone is not the answer."

He is, of course correct. It was also good that the AP actually quoted him correctly rather than simply telling us that he said it wouldn't work.

We are also told that we should legalize drugs because we can't stop drugs from being used. With this logic rape (a sexual preference), murder, and even hate crimes should be legalized because they can't be stopped 100%

What am I missing?

 

[jrenz]

You're just a bigot and a Republican corporate whore.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This could be constitute a personal attack which is in violation of the P&N guidelines.

Please backup your accusations or pack your bags.

Anandtech "Cruise" Moderator

 

[Strk]

Originally posted by: jrenz
You're just a bigot and a Republican corporate whore.

He doesn't seem to be a bigot from the posts I've read of his.

 

[Aisengard]

We are also told that we should legalize drugs because we can't stop drugs from being used.

To be fair, it's not just that. The fact that we can't stop drugs being used, coupled with the fact that marijuana (by and far away the most common 'drug') is relatively harmless is why people want it legalized. Everyone uses it anyway, why fill our prisons with dopeheads?

 

[Dissipate]

We are also told that we should legalize drugs because we can't stop drugs from being used. With this logic rape (a sexual preference), murder, and even hate crimes should be legalized because they can't be stopped 100%

What am I missing?

Logic. Hint: Straw man.

 

[Polish3d]

There needs to be good reason to make something a crime. Explain why marijuana use should be crime. (I dont use marijuana or even drink btw) But I do not think it should be a criminalized behavior

 

[Velk]

The black or white, all or nothing proposition seems very american, I see it used it arguments against bothering to do things quite frequently.

I would guess it has the attraction of not being definitively wrong while avoiding the hassle of things like cost/benefit analysis.

 

[Jaskalas]

Originally posted by: jrenz
You're just a bigot and a Republican corporate whore.

P&N, home of stereotypes and personal attacks.

Why is less than 100% a failure?

I present you the following concept. If someone wants to defeat your goal, be it defending yourself, they then try to discredit your attempts by any means possible. Thus if their goal is to prevent Israel from defending itself, a wall must be viewed in a negative light or else their aims do not progress.

While there are other reasons to not like the wall, there can be no doubt as to the effectiveness a barrier has as opposed to nothing. Obviously it?s open to being circumvented, but the more difficulty associated with entering populated areas with explosives, the better.

 

[moshquerade]

Originally posted by: ExpertNovice
I'm always amazed at this feat of logic. Here are some examples.

We heard opponents of the Star Wars programs state that since a single missle could get through the defense system we should not build such a defense.

Powell Says Border Walls Won't Work
The topic reads "Powell Says Border Walls Won't Work" but Powell actually said;

"The Berlin Wall did not work perfectly and the wall that the Israelis are putting up is not going to work perfectly," Powell said. "So, a wall alone is not the answer."

He is, of course correct. It was also good that the AP actually quoted him correctly rather than simply telling us that he said it wouldn't work.

We are also told that we should legalize drugs because we can't stop drugs from being used. With this logic rape (a sexual preference), murder, and even hate crimes should be legalized because they can't be stopped 100%

What am I missing?

good call. i can definitely can see your point. the headline is just the typical doom and gloom that the media plays day in and day out. i guess it's better not to skim and read headlines, but to read the whole article in the hopes of gaining some truth.

 

[amish]

Originally posted by: jrenz
You're just a bigot and a Republican corporate whore.

great post, glad you can bring so much to the discussion :roll:

anyway, that is done just to stir the pot and be an attention grabber. i for one would doubt that powell would say that so i would therefore read the article to see if it was true.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: ExpertNovice
What am I missing?

You are missing the whole picture. You can't look at one tree, and forget about the forest.

I like to weigh the costs vs the likely benefits. If the benefits outweigh the costs, it is a good idea. You appear to look at the benefits, decide if you like them, and if so you think the project is a good idea. You aren't looking at the cost side of the picture.

[*]Suppose you could have a public program that cost $1B and had a 100% chance of returning $2B. This is a good idea no matter how you look at it.
[*]Suppose you could have a public program that cost $1B and had a 90% chance of returning $2B and 10% chance of returning $0. Most likely you'll gain. If you do enough of these projects, in the long run, the country would be much better off. Even though each individual project has a 10% chance of failure, multiple of these projects added together would be beneficial.
[*]Suppose you could have a public program that cost $1B and had a 50% chance of returning $2B. You could double up or you could lose it all. Overall it is a wash. If you do enough of these programs, you'd break even. I suppose it doesn't matter what you do.
[*]Suppose you could have a public program that cost $1B and had a 10% chance of returning $2B. Most likely you'll lose. If you do enough of these projects, in the long run, the country would be much worse off. Even though each individual project has a 10% chance of doubling up, multiple of these projects added together would be quite harmful.

If, you forgot to look at that $1B cost, you couldn't have made any of those decisions. A project that costs $1B and has a 100% chance of succeeding in returning $100M is a pathetic waste of a program. That is true even if it is 100% successful. Why? The cost outweighs the likely benefit.

Of course we'll all disagree on the exact cost, the max benefit, and the percent chance of success. But that really doesn't matter in this thread.

 

[shortylickens]

Originally posted by: Jaskalas
I present you the following concept. If someone wants to defeat your goal, be it defending yourself, they then try to discredit your attempts by any means possible. Thus if their goal is to prevent Israel from defending itself, a wall must be viewed in a negative light or else their aims do not progress.

That sums up things quite well.

Its pretty much how our legal and political system handles everything.
Doesnt matter too much what's right or wrong. The winner is the guy that can pile on the statistics, regardless of whether or not they even apply to the current situation.
(I actually learned that concept in High School Debate, but it makes more sense when you get out into the world and see it applied everyday.)

Interesting enough, this is pretty much the standard here on AT P&N, which could explain why we spend more time crapping on each other and less time coming up with good ideas.

 

[PingSpike]

Its because of inflation. You need 200% to get 100% these days.

 

[piasabird]

So since you cant stop people from murdering other people, are you going to legalize Murder?

 

[TGS]

Originally posted by: piasabird
So since you cant stop people from murdering other people, are you going to legalize Murder?

Originally posted by: Aisengard

We are also told that we should legalize drugs because we can't stop drugs from being used.

To be fair, it's not just that. The fact that we can't stop drugs being used, coupled with the fact that marijuana (by and far away the most common 'drug') is relatively harmless is why people want it legalized. Everyone uses it anyway, why fill our prisons with dopeheads?

 

[Darkhawk28]

Originally posted by: jrenz
You're just a bigot and a Republican corporate whore.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This could be constitute a personal attack which is in violation of the P&N guidelines.

Please backup your accusations or pack your bags.

Anandtech "Cruise" Moderator

In fairness to Jrenz, I believe he was being facetious.

 

[glenn1]

Powell is a former Army General so I know he knows the concept of "defense in depth." You build redundant and overlapping systems to minimize the effects of a potential failure in any single part of the whole. Yes, a wall might not work in all cases, or even most cases. But as part of a larger security system it's an obvious component along with border guards, electronic surveillance, and other tools.

 

[daniel49]

Originally posted by: ExpertNovice
I'm always amazed at this feat of logic. Here are some examples.

We heard opponents of the Star Wars programs state that since a single missle could get through the defense system we should not build such a defense.

Powell Says Border Walls Won't Work
The topic reads "Powell Says Border Walls Won't Work" but Powell actually said;

"The Berlin Wall did not work perfectly and the wall that the Israelis are putting up is not going to work perfectly," Powell said. "So, a wall alone is not the answer."

He is, of course correct. It was also good that the AP actually quoted him correctly rather than simply telling us that he said it wouldn't work.

We are also told that we should legalize drugs because we can't stop drugs from being used. With this logic rape (a sexual preference), murder, and even hate crimes should be legalized because they can't be stopped 100%

What am I missing?

I think its just the fast food age we live in.
Why diet and exercise just get lyposuction or take diet pills.

We want easy one step solutions to everything, and most things are a little more complicated then that.

 

[Tom]

The problem with SDI is the question of priorities. Is it the best use of the money ?

I don't have a problem with the border fence, but I think the more effective thing to do is make it a severe crime to employ an illegal alien, and enforce it against employers very vigorously. I mean like 20 year prison sentences, in real prisons. I'd be happy to pay for the prisons. On the other hand, I would like to allow the "illegals" that are here have a chance at citizenship, if they pay a fine. I do not believe I have a greater claim on the American dream than anyone else, just because I was born here.

I'm opposed to legalizing drugs.

I'm a Democrat, btw, fairly liberal on some issues, middle of the road on others. The vast majority of elected Democratic officials would agree with what I've said. They and I also believe in families, fighting terrorism, etc.

I don't believe in torture. I don't believe in excessive executive power.

I do believe in leadership, but I don't see enough of it. Take gay marriage. I can see some of the point of those opposed to it, but I don't hear any compassion for the people who are being prevented from being married. Maybe if I did, I wouldn't be quite so sure that it's based on fear and loathing.

I don't believe in creating safe districts for politicians of any party. I don't like party line votes, from either side. I don't believe in hating people I disagree with.

I don't understand how we can afford such big deficits. I am very confused that at least some current Republicans in office seems to like them. These are not the Republicans I thought I knew.