- Jan 2, 2006
- 10,455
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The more I read about the ACA the more I think it has a good chance of driving down the cost of our healthcare.
Let me start off with some foundation so we are all on the same page.
Foundation:
The root of the problem is that healthcare prices are too high in the US.
I refer you to the Time Magazine article "Why Medical Bills are Killing Us":
http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2136864,00.html
If you google search you can find places to read it - it is a long but enlightening read that absolutely holds true to my own experiences getting healthcare from Stanford Hospitals, a non-profit.
Healthcare prices do not operating in a free market. Anyone who says we should just let the free market decide completely misunderstand the very foundation of the problem.
- Prices are not public knowledge and are not advertised. Results of work done are also not easily found. There is no chance of comparison shopping, and therefore no chance of creating real competition between hospitals.
- Healthcare Supply and Demand is inelastic, meaning when prices go up, even way up, the demand for general healthcare and especially life-saving treatments remains the same. This is critical because it means hospitals can charge whatever they want.
- You don't know what you're paying for. The charges on your bill are usually indecipherable medical shorthand codes that a normal layman won't understand and can never understand.
- Due to the above point, hospitals routinely make charges for things that give them a 400% or more profit market. Drugs. durable medical devices like canes, scans, excessive doctor's visits, errors in billing. And most of the time, mundane things like pills of aspirin. Refer to the Time Article. There are hospitals that make Operating Profits of 25%. Operating Profits are those profits AFTER salaries, overhead, equipment expenses, administrative expenses, etc.
When you take the above points into account, you will see that the individual consumer has ZERO bargaining power over the prices set by the hospitals. It is not a free market. And due to many innate reasons, IMO it can never be a free market between the consumer and hospital. The products and services are simply too complex.
The Actual Market
Hospitals have customers, and their customers are insurance companies. Insurance companies are the demand. Hospitals are the supply.
Negotiating Prices
In any negotiation you have to start with the relative bargaining power of the two parties.
We've already determined that the individual consumer has zero bargaining power.
Insurance companies have more negotiating power than the individual, but it is dwindling. Because hospitals have been so profitable and have been swamped in cash, they get bigger and bigger. They buy out individual practices and absorb those doctors into the conglomerate. They build more campuses, create more additions to their buildings, create more lobbies and lobbyists, and do more marketing that paints a picture of a "charitable" organization for the general population, even though their financial documents show charity operations as an abysmally-low percentage of overall operations.
Thus, insurance companies are losing their bargaining power, meaning they will continue to pay higher and higher prices to hospitals because hospitals have the power to demand more and more. This translates into a spiral of hospitals getting more and more profits, insurance companies paying more and more, and the consumer paying more and more in premiums (or getting kicked off insurance).
Insurance Companies will have Less Money to Pay Out
Remember that everything operates in concert with everything else. Supply and Demand. Limited Resources. Cause and Effect.
The ACA limits the amount of money that the insurance companies have to work with.
(A) Now insurance companies have to accept EVERYONE. They cannot pick and choose their customers at will. They can only "pick and choose" which customers use them by (1) setting different prices and (2) changing their product mix to match the customers they would want to have, BUT...
- (1) Insurance companies now compete even more directly with each other because they are now visually side by side and open to comparison shopping in our Health Insurance Marketplaces. So their pricing and services have to be competitive, which limits how high they can make their premiums.
- (2) Insurance companies now have to meet minimum requirements for services that are provided. So their product mix is now limited.
When you take (1) and (2) into account, insurance companies are now very much limited in what customers they get to choose. But at the end of the day, they have to *get* customers, or else they will cease to exist. Basically, they've gotta work with what they've now got. You would think that even though EVERYONE must now buy insurance, that insurance companies should now be flooded with money, but these two restrains put a limit on how much they can advertise their service for (aka money they can collect for themselves) before people move to another competing insurance company, leaving them with a lost sale.
(B) At least 80% of this money collected from the insured person must be used to pay for healthcare services and the other remaining percentage can be used for running the insurance business. As a result, insurance companies must get leaner and more efficient since their costs are now strictly defined.
When you take (A) and (B) together, you see that insurance companies will now feasibly only have so much money to give out to healthcare providers. What they can collect from the insured is limited by competition in the Marketplaces. They have a set of services they are mandated to provide. They can't really choose their customers by kicking off the costly ones. Their costs are strictly defined. And they need to survive and continue competing with other hungry insurance companies on what's remaining.
The money that they have to give out to healthcare providers is a scarce resource.
The Beauty of the ACA - Bargaining Power Through Scarcity
Again we have two parties at the bargaining table. The all-powerful hospitals with insane profit margins (ie. LOTS of room to market DOWN services) and the insurance companies. Only now, ALL of the hospital's customers, the insurance companies, have LESS money to pay out.
As a hospital, you can't squeeze more money out of something that simply doesn't have that money to give out, no matter how hard you bargain.
The insurance companies can now ALL go and bargain and say "look, this is the max amount of money we can give you for this procedure due to our government-mandated situation. Take it or leave it. If you can't take it, we'll simply go to the hospitals that *can* take it."
Bargaining Power Through Scarcity
Initial Refusal
Initially, insurance companies will terminate relationships with many of their previous healthcare providers because many providers will refuse the lower payouts that the insurance companies can give. This predictably makes many end consumers angry because now their previously-covered doctor is no longer covered.
BUT what this really means is that these healthcare providers are now NOT getting PAID by their previous customers, the insurance company.
Remember that since all insurance companies are in the same scarcity situation - if the hospital refuses to do business with Insurance Company A due to their lower payout, they will most likely have to refuse the other Insurance Companies like dominoes.
If the hospital loses enough insurance companies due to their refusal to take the lower payouts, their overall income will dramatically decrease.
Scarcity will now force the hospitals to change.
Future Acceptance, and close to Checkmate for the hospitals
Hospitals will now need to gain back their insurance company customers.
And this means DECREASING their prices to a level that the insurance companies can afford.
This, everyone, is how healthcare costs will be brought under reasonable control in this country.
The result:
- Everyone has access to affordable healthcare (with future tweaks of course, we're not there yet).
- Everyone has access to a minimum of care - the original moral goal of government has been attained.
- Prices for health insurance are now public knowledge and comparisons can resume as a free market. This has the beautiful flow-though effect of placing limits on what hospitals can charge. After all, insurance companies can only pay out what they can take in through the free market.
- Costs are brought down.
- The government now has a regulatory "in" on the healthcare market that could be used for the common good. Imagine the power that the government could have in further bringing down healthcare costs if they actually placed a cap on what people could pay for their premiums. Insurance companies would still have to insure everyone, only now they have a cap on the income they can bring in with each customer. Their overhead costs remain the same. So they would *have* to put more pressure on the hospitals to lower their prices even further, and compete more fiercely with other insurance companies to get more customers. A similar result can happen if the government mandates an even higher minimum standard for services covered by insurance.
Topics not touched on in this thread:
Tracking and only paying for effective treatments.
Tort Reform
Possible issues of decreased Research and Development.
People off the IRS radar.
Some people won't be able to afford this in its current configuration.
Employer costs.
Bigger government control in our lives.
Guns.
Let me start off with some foundation so we are all on the same page.
Foundation:
The root of the problem is that healthcare prices are too high in the US.
I refer you to the Time Magazine article "Why Medical Bills are Killing Us":
http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2136864,00.html
If you google search you can find places to read it - it is a long but enlightening read that absolutely holds true to my own experiences getting healthcare from Stanford Hospitals, a non-profit.
Healthcare prices do not operating in a free market. Anyone who says we should just let the free market decide completely misunderstand the very foundation of the problem.
- Prices are not public knowledge and are not advertised. Results of work done are also not easily found. There is no chance of comparison shopping, and therefore no chance of creating real competition between hospitals.
- Healthcare Supply and Demand is inelastic, meaning when prices go up, even way up, the demand for general healthcare and especially life-saving treatments remains the same. This is critical because it means hospitals can charge whatever they want.
- You don't know what you're paying for. The charges on your bill are usually indecipherable medical shorthand codes that a normal layman won't understand and can never understand.
- Due to the above point, hospitals routinely make charges for things that give them a 400% or more profit market. Drugs. durable medical devices like canes, scans, excessive doctor's visits, errors in billing. And most of the time, mundane things like pills of aspirin. Refer to the Time Article. There are hospitals that make Operating Profits of 25%. Operating Profits are those profits AFTER salaries, overhead, equipment expenses, administrative expenses, etc.
When you take the above points into account, you will see that the individual consumer has ZERO bargaining power over the prices set by the hospitals. It is not a free market. And due to many innate reasons, IMO it can never be a free market between the consumer and hospital. The products and services are simply too complex.
The Actual Market
Hospitals have customers, and their customers are insurance companies. Insurance companies are the demand. Hospitals are the supply.
Negotiating Prices
In any negotiation you have to start with the relative bargaining power of the two parties.
We've already determined that the individual consumer has zero bargaining power.
Insurance companies have more negotiating power than the individual, but it is dwindling. Because hospitals have been so profitable and have been swamped in cash, they get bigger and bigger. They buy out individual practices and absorb those doctors into the conglomerate. They build more campuses, create more additions to their buildings, create more lobbies and lobbyists, and do more marketing that paints a picture of a "charitable" organization for the general population, even though their financial documents show charity operations as an abysmally-low percentage of overall operations.
Thus, insurance companies are losing their bargaining power, meaning they will continue to pay higher and higher prices to hospitals because hospitals have the power to demand more and more. This translates into a spiral of hospitals getting more and more profits, insurance companies paying more and more, and the consumer paying more and more in premiums (or getting kicked off insurance).
Insurance Companies will have Less Money to Pay Out
Remember that everything operates in concert with everything else. Supply and Demand. Limited Resources. Cause and Effect.
The ACA limits the amount of money that the insurance companies have to work with.
(A) Now insurance companies have to accept EVERYONE. They cannot pick and choose their customers at will. They can only "pick and choose" which customers use them by (1) setting different prices and (2) changing their product mix to match the customers they would want to have, BUT...
- (1) Insurance companies now compete even more directly with each other because they are now visually side by side and open to comparison shopping in our Health Insurance Marketplaces. So their pricing and services have to be competitive, which limits how high they can make their premiums.
- (2) Insurance companies now have to meet minimum requirements for services that are provided. So their product mix is now limited.
When you take (1) and (2) into account, insurance companies are now very much limited in what customers they get to choose. But at the end of the day, they have to *get* customers, or else they will cease to exist. Basically, they've gotta work with what they've now got. You would think that even though EVERYONE must now buy insurance, that insurance companies should now be flooded with money, but these two restrains put a limit on how much they can advertise their service for (aka money they can collect for themselves) before people move to another competing insurance company, leaving them with a lost sale.
(B) At least 80% of this money collected from the insured person must be used to pay for healthcare services and the other remaining percentage can be used for running the insurance business. As a result, insurance companies must get leaner and more efficient since their costs are now strictly defined.
When you take (A) and (B) together, you see that insurance companies will now feasibly only have so much money to give out to healthcare providers. What they can collect from the insured is limited by competition in the Marketplaces. They have a set of services they are mandated to provide. They can't really choose their customers by kicking off the costly ones. Their costs are strictly defined. And they need to survive and continue competing with other hungry insurance companies on what's remaining.
The money that they have to give out to healthcare providers is a scarce resource.
The Beauty of the ACA - Bargaining Power Through Scarcity
Again we have two parties at the bargaining table. The all-powerful hospitals with insane profit margins (ie. LOTS of room to market DOWN services) and the insurance companies. Only now, ALL of the hospital's customers, the insurance companies, have LESS money to pay out.
As a hospital, you can't squeeze more money out of something that simply doesn't have that money to give out, no matter how hard you bargain.
The insurance companies can now ALL go and bargain and say "look, this is the max amount of money we can give you for this procedure due to our government-mandated situation. Take it or leave it. If you can't take it, we'll simply go to the hospitals that *can* take it."
Bargaining Power Through Scarcity
Initial Refusal
Initially, insurance companies will terminate relationships with many of their previous healthcare providers because many providers will refuse the lower payouts that the insurance companies can give. This predictably makes many end consumers angry because now their previously-covered doctor is no longer covered.
BUT what this really means is that these healthcare providers are now NOT getting PAID by their previous customers, the insurance company.
Remember that since all insurance companies are in the same scarcity situation - if the hospital refuses to do business with Insurance Company A due to their lower payout, they will most likely have to refuse the other Insurance Companies like dominoes.
If the hospital loses enough insurance companies due to their refusal to take the lower payouts, their overall income will dramatically decrease.
Scarcity will now force the hospitals to change.
Future Acceptance, and close to Checkmate for the hospitals
Hospitals will now need to gain back their insurance company customers.
And this means DECREASING their prices to a level that the insurance companies can afford.
This, everyone, is how healthcare costs will be brought under reasonable control in this country.
The result:
- Everyone has access to affordable healthcare (with future tweaks of course, we're not there yet).
- Everyone has access to a minimum of care - the original moral goal of government has been attained.
- Prices for health insurance are now public knowledge and comparisons can resume as a free market. This has the beautiful flow-though effect of placing limits on what hospitals can charge. After all, insurance companies can only pay out what they can take in through the free market.
- Costs are brought down.
- The government now has a regulatory "in" on the healthcare market that could be used for the common good. Imagine the power that the government could have in further bringing down healthcare costs if they actually placed a cap on what people could pay for their premiums. Insurance companies would still have to insure everyone, only now they have a cap on the income they can bring in with each customer. Their overhead costs remain the same. So they would *have* to put more pressure on the hospitals to lower their prices even further, and compete more fiercely with other insurance companies to get more customers. A similar result can happen if the government mandates an even higher minimum standard for services covered by insurance.
Topics not touched on in this thread:
Tracking and only paying for effective treatments.
Tort Reform
Possible issues of decreased Research and Development.
People off the IRS radar.
Some people won't be able to afford this in its current configuration.
Employer costs.
Bigger government control in our lives.
Guns.
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