Why I figured trump would win

[Texashiker]

While the national media reported hillary was winning by a landslide, things did not add up.

I doubted the numbers and here is why.

Just about every poll where people could vote showed trump winning. Even liberal major media, public polls where anyone could vote showed trump winning. Polls in trumps favor were removed from news sites and were not put back up.

If hillary was "truly" winning, why didn't sites like huffpost have public polls where anyone could vote?

Yall are going to say anti-hillary groups would run polls up in trumps favor.

Even if a few groups organized to run up the polls in trumps favor, counter groups would run the polls up in hillarys favor. In the end, the groups would of balanced each other out.

Rather than having the polls in public view and where the public could vote, the news reported hidden polls done by research groups. Ok, even the research groups hid the polls from the public.

A lot of people were claiming non-partisan groups showed hillary winning. Yall were being lied to, plain and simple.

Yall are going to say hillary won the popular vote, so the non-partisan groups were right.

Yall realize all the votes have not been counted yet, right?

If hillary was truly winning, put the polls out there for the public to vote and prove it.

In the end, hillary lost and the public was lied to.

 

[Kazukian]

Don't bother, they don't want to even think about it.

Democrats will be finger pointing for some time.

 

[dank69]

If any of that was true Ron Paul would have been President a long time ago.

 

[Victorian Gray]

Don't bother, they don't want to even think about it.

Democrats will be finger pointing for some time.

According to you, you just described yourself.

 

[Kazukian]

According to you, you just described yourself.

And?

It's an internet forum, how the hell am I supposed to prove anything?

 

[Victorian Gray]

And?

It's an internet forum, how the hell am I supposed to prove anything?

Maybe just stop pretending.

BURN IT DOWN!!!!

 

[FelixDeCat]

It appears Donald Trump will be the greatest president of the 21st century. This is why I called his election back in July. Hillary did not inspire people or attract crowds, whilst Trump did.

Trump is a leader and great leaders attract arrows from detractors such as those seen from the clowns on late night left wing "comedy" shows.

 

[zinfamous]

The reason online polls are useless is because they usually allow multiple votes and are easily exploitable.

It is extremely well known that the post debate 1 online polls were bot-farmed by reddit and 4Chan. This was a well-publicized organized thing through those forums and Twitter.

Trump won those online polls at nearly a 3:1 or 4:1 clip. In fact, he lost the popular vote and will end up losing by about 2 points (roughly 2 million votes--a larger defeat than Romney in 2012)

If you were to compare the online polls to anything, it would be to the popular vote, which shows how completely untrue the online polls were. Trump won by roughly 30k votes across 3 states in the EC. The swing to those 3 "locked Hillary states" was so small that it was barely measurable within the given margin of all the polls.

Also, the poll averages were actually rather accurate in the end. The close states that Trump one--NC and FL, he won within the margin of error allowed within the best average models. They simply went the other way from the projection and, in fact, the swing that flipped from Hillary to Trump was a greater swing that eventually and Obama winning by more than he was projected to win by. Throughout the entire general election these error rates were mentioned and, at least with Nate Silver, they were part of the modeling and he gave Trump a comparatively huge chance of winning. Obviously, there probably wasn't enough uncertainty in the states where it actually mattered. No one really thought Trump could do what he did in MI, PA, and WI. NO ONE. not republicans, not Trump supporters, not his alt-right basic bitch Twitter army led by Cernovich, certainly not many of the voters there. A lot of the uncertainty was tied into what would happen in places like NC, VA, FL, and even AZ--each acting as a bellweather for the other. The reality is that for Hillary, only one of those "Swing" states, VA, would have mattered assuming that her "lock" states were actually a lock--obviously they weren't.

Listen, TH--I think you can make some solid arguments for why you or anyone else could have seen Trump winning--the enthusiasm for that guy was off the charts from the primaries through election night. Hillary never had that and the dems only had it briefly with Bernie. He went completely against convention and campaigned where "he wasn't supposed to." This was extremely shrewd and effective, and Trump deserves a lot of recognition for going against his own handlers and spending his energy there. It was an extraordinary win that a decent number of people "Saw" because of what was going on with the ground game, but certainly not because of what some arbitrary and uncontrollable metric--online polls--showed. Much less because those numbers were 100% wrong compared to what actually happened (a 10-fold greater loss in the popular vote than the razor thin win in the EC). The polls were never wrong. The pundits that went on and on about the polls were wrong, and we all believed them despite the polls. Yes, it is hard to say "despite the polls," which is largely because we are collectively lazy about understanding those polls. It certainly kicked me in the ass, because I wanted to believe the positive interpretations of those metrics and ignore the potential error.

This is a common thing with you, TH--even when you have something good going, you totally screw it. You complain about numbers you simply do not understand and quite possibly have no hope of understanding. You champion some metric that remains 100% wrong and unreflective of reality, when there are some legitimate points to be made out there that don't make you look so foolish.

Enjoy your man's victory here and the immolation of this country that the rest of us love, but you don't have to continue to make yourself look like an idiot in the process, bro.

 

[pete6032]

While the national media reported hillary was winning by a landslide, things did not add up.

I doubted the numbers and here is why.

I am an ultra-conservative republican.

OK.

 

[Kazukian]

Waiting for Sportage to spew out a page or two of platitudes that make absolutely no sense...

 

[Texashiker]

It appears Donald Trump will be the greatest president of the 21st century. This is why I called his election back in July. Hillary did not inspire people or attract crowds, whilst Trump did.

Thank you, I forgot about the crowds

The reason online polls are useless is because they usually allow multiple votes and are easily exploitable.

<snip for length>

You do realize all the votes have not been counted yet?

People like you can rattle on all you want. You were lied to by polls that were "supposed" to be non-partizan and major media.

 

[BoomerD]

Thank you, I forgot about the crowds



You do realize all the votes have not been counted yet?

People like you can rattle on all you want. You were lied to by polls that were "supposed" to be non-partizan and major media.

You're right about one thing...the votes HAVEN'T all been counted...but it's predicted that Clinton will end up winning the popular vote by about 1.8 million votes.

 

[zinfamous]

Thank you, I forgot about the crowds



You do realize all the votes have not been counted yet?

People like you can rattle on all you want. You were lied to by polls that were "supposed" to be non-partizan and major media.

again, the polls didn't lie. The outcome was within the expected margin, because the polls and probability of winning were based on the EC. The pundits went nuts with one side of the polls, so you are right about that. This is yet another case where your beef shouldn't be with math, but here we are again.

Your precious online polls "reflect" popular vote only, which Hillary won, and so were 100% wrong. Yes, all of the votes aren't yet counted, but her lead has only been growing there. The remaining votes aren't going to make a difference.

There are plenty of reasons that you could have rationally seen this outcome, TH, but it wasn't through the only polls that you like (the only ones that actually lied to you. Again: you realize that those were fabricated by auto-counters, right?)

 

[MrSquished]

referencing online polls is fucking stupid.

i called this way more than you called this. I posted Michael Moore's prescient warning and deemed it a large worry/possibility to go along with a Brexit effect and the passion of idiot Trumpists vs Clinton supporters.

fucking online polls.

 

[ivwshane]

It appears Donald Trump will be the greatest president of the 21st century. This is why I called his election back in July. Hillary did not inspire people or attract crowds, whilst Trump did.

Trump is a leader and great leaders attract arrows from detractors such as those seen from the clowns on late night left wing "comedy" shows.

I hate to have to point out your stupidity, yet again, but you do know that trump got less votes than did Romney, right?


Good god! We have four years of having to listen to these completely ignorant fucks who think they know everything because their candidate won. I've said it before and I'll say it again, trump supporters are worse than trump himself.

 

[Kaido]

This is why I called his election back in July. Hillary did not inspire people or attract crowds, whilst Trump did.

imo a big reason that Trump won was marketing, same with previous presidents. Obama had a very strong campaign with the "Hope" advertisements. Trump came out with a solid, clear message: "Make America great again". There was a lot of confusion as to what core idea Hillary was pushing..."I'm with her" isn't the most compelling message to the average joe. There are a lot of people in bad situations across the country who responded to Trump's message; the general talk on the street I heard was that Hillary would be more of the same & Trump might actually get in there and shake things up a bit. That remains to be seen, but I'm not at all surprised Trump won...he told the people what they wanted to hear & had a simple, clear message.

It remains to be seen if anything really happens. I am actually pretty interested in how his presidency will affect our nation. He has no financial ties due to largely self-funding his campaign. He's not a politician, so the only political ties he had would come from previous business encounters. He's basically a free agent at the moment, which is scary to all of the tenured politicians on Capital Hill. He's also very pro-business, which might have a pretty positive impact on over-regulation. In my state (CT), we have a horrible problem of driving off big business. We just lost GE this year, Pfizer & Aetna dropped their huge business campuses, we've spent hundreds of millions incentivizing aerospace companies not to leave us, PTR already bailed & Colt Competition moved as well...and yet we haven't changed our taxes, electricity costs, etc. I do IT work for a variety of small businesses & constantly hear complaints about how hard it is to keep afloat in this state.

Anyway, yeah. Trump had a personality, he said things that people wanted to hear, and had a strong, clear message. As soon as Bernie lost, I figured Trump was going to win. I took some marketing classes back in college that really opened my eyes to how corporate America & politics really worked; based on history, whoever has the best marketing story wins the presidency. Obama nailed it. It was a lot closer of a race with Trump, but his team was also smart about branding & they ended up winning.

 

[IGBT]

I hear Venezuelan Beauty Contestants voted in solidarity for Trump..

 

[shady28]

You're right about one thing...the votes HAVEN'T all been counted...but it's predicted that Clinton will end up winning the popular vote by about 1.8 million votes.

It's actually estimated to be 700,000 in the final. Source : http://www.snopes.com/2016/11/13/who-won-the-popular-vote/

But that aside, in CA its Clinton by +2.4 million (or more). Because CA is hopelessly "Blue", the GOP doesn't expend resources there during a campaign.

It's called strategy.

 

[BoomerD]

It's actually estimated to be 700,000 in the final. Source : http://www.snopes.com/2016/11/13/who-won-the-popular-vote/

But that aside, in CA its Clinton by +2.4 million (or more). Because CA is hopelessly "Blue", the GOP doesn't expend resources there during a campaign.

It's called strategy.

http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/popul...ege-presidential-election-results-california/

 

[flexy]

Let's assume these numbers, anywhere from 4M-7M uncounted ballots are legit.
7M UNCOUNTED ballots.

Why are they counting them in the first place? Is the fact that there are possibly 7M uncounted ballots and that the counting of them is absolutely pointless not proof enough for the idiocy of your system? You could as well use the 7M ballots and wipe someone's ass with it. Sort of mind blowing.

 

[disappoint]

Why Trump won:
1. Because the swing states are not doing well economically. The voters there were unhappy with the conditions they live in, and they want change. They don't feel like anyone cares about them. They feel as though they have been swept under the rug by the Dems for the last 8 years. Trump represented changing the status quo. Clinton represented keeping it.

2. Hillary has proven she cannot be entrusted with the state's secrets. She is at best grossly incompetent and at worst criminal. She told one of her staff to send an email without the proper header to indicate it as a secret document. This shows intent. She also received millions of dollars to the Clinton Foundation from foreign governments. Furthermore she used the actual names of American intelligence personnel working covertly in the middle east who lost their lives as a result of her incompetence.

Why would you want such person to be Commander in Chief?

Forget Democrat and Republican, Liberal or Conservative labels for a moment. Those labels might be clouding your judgment.

Suppose you were on the board of directors of a company and your CEO just left for whatever reason. You have to appoint a new CEO. You have to choose between 2 executives for the position. One of them leaked company secrets to your competition. The other did not. Are you really going to choose your next CEO to be at best incompetent, at worst subversive on purpose?

With the position of Commander in Chief there will be American lives at stake and we can not afford to elect someone with such incompetence as President.

She should not have won the popular vote. The only reason she won the popular vote is because the media portrayed her as better than she actually is.

The media and Hillary are not to be trusted. They made their predictions in an echo chamber of misinformation and incompetence. I have lost trust in the party that once appealed to me when they ran better candidates for president that I could trust more than their opposition.

 

[flexy]

So you distrust the FBI then and what their investigation concluded?
Still riding the "but, but she is a criminal!!" train. Yawn.

 

[disappoint]

So you distrust the FBI then and what their investigation concluded?
Still riding the "but, but she is a criminal!!" train. Yawn.

I never said I distrusted the FBI. The director of the FBI made it clear that despite her wrong doing, they would not prosecute her because of a lack of intent in his opinion.

So would you choose Hillary Clinton as POTUS considering how incompetently she handled state secrets? Do you care that American intelligence personnel were killed because of her incompetence?

 

[rommelrommel]

While the national media reported hillary was winning by a landslide, things did not add up.

I doubted the numbers and here is why.

Trump is on my team, my team is the greatest, and it's unpossible for us to lose. Unless Obummer rigs the elections by getting black people to care enough to vote.

 

[JamieStarr]

I hate to have to point out your stupidity, yet again, but you do know that trump got less votes than did Romney, right?


Good god! We have four years of having to listen to these completely ignorant fucks who think they know everything because their candidate won. I've said it before and I'll say it again, trump supporters are worse than trump himself.

Thank you for saying that. I wanted to say the same thing but have run out of air saying it repeatedly to far too many clueless people over the last few days. I say give them a few months to see how "great" a Trump presidency truly is. A year from now, these assclowns will be deflated.