Why does the vast majority say "China will be the next superpower" when that's a longshot at best?

[glenn1]

China as the next world superpower? Please. The main reason that gets cited for this supposed transformation is because of the population mass it has. Well, if sheer numbers were the key to power, why isn't India a superpower now? They have a huge population as well, perhaps half (if not more than half) China's, and they have advantages that China can only dream of; a reasonably stable democratic tradition, the rule of law, well educated populace, and a nearly 60 year head start in the capitalist school of hard knocks.

So why the China fixation? Why does anyone believe that China will become more than a regional power, when a comparable neighbor state hasn't and shows no sign of becoming in any of our (or probably our grandchildren's lives) a "superpower" like the U.S. or former USSR in its glory days?

 

[Martin]

I dunno who's posts you've been reading, but the way I see it population is an important part of it. I mean, if France or Germany had the same population as the US, they'd be superpowers too.

As for china, there are several factors. Huge, well-educated, population, brisk economic growth (In case you haven't noticed, companies are tripping overthemselves to set up a presence in china), liberalization of both markets and society (as you can see from the handling of SARS, the chinese gov. is trying to be more transperant) etc. It seems to me, China will follow in the footsteps of Taiwan and South Korea. They will develop their economy based on exports under an authoritarian (I won't say communist, because even the god doesn't pretend to be communist anymore) regime and only then will they hold free elections.

Look at GDP too if you like. Right now, the US has a gross GDP of ~10 trillion, while china has ~6 trillion, however China's GDP growth is much faster. SARS will probably put a stop to that, but it won't have a lasting impact. If things keep going the way they are going today, China's gross GDP will pass that of the US within 20 years.

As for India, you are only partially right. They will probably become a regional power, but probably not a superpower. Their current GDP is ~2.7T and their growth rate isn't as large as china's. The difference between the two (as I see it) is that China has both more potential and a huge lead in the race.

 

[LilBlinbBlahIce]

IMO both China and India have populations that are too huge to garner them superpower status as we define it today. By this I mean that there will always have a huge percentage of their populations who will continue to live in extreme poverty as they will probably never possess the resources to provide adequate services for everyone. Now militarily speaking, the advantage these countries have is the same one that will hold them back: population. As someone pointed out, in a conventional war, both India and China could loose troops equal to our entire population without putting a significant dent in their populations. This leads back to what MtheM said, its about open market trade, and in those regards, both countries have extreme potential. I think that we would have to redefine the way we define a superpower to clasify India and China as such, but without a doubt, these countries are going to have a significant impact on the world in the future.

 

[Dari]

One of the reason why the chinese are so respected today is because of their seat at the security council. And we give that to them. We took the seat away from Taiwan and give it to the Communists. The only power the chinese have is in making deadly deadly viruses that mutate from farm animals to humans.

 

[LilBlinbBlahIce]

Originally posted by: Dari
One of the reason why the chinese are so respected today is because of their seat at the security council. And we give that to them. We took the seat away from Taiwan and give it to the Communists. The only power the chinese have is in making deadly deadly viruses that mutate from farm animals to humans.

Yeah, funny how we can turn on a democratic ally and snuggle with a communist regime if it suits our interests.

 

[Dari]

Originally posted by: LilBlinbBlahIce

Originally posted by: Dari
One of the reason why the chinese are so respected today is because of their seat at the security council. And we give that to them. We took the seat away from Taiwan and give it to the Communists. The only power the chinese have is in making deadly deadly viruses that mutate from farm animals to humans.

Yeah, funny how we can turn on a democratic ally and snuggle with a communist regime if it suits our interests.

Damn the United States for acting in its own interests. Damn, damn, damn them.

 

[sMiLeYz]

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: LilBlinbBlahIce

Originally posted by: Dari
One of the reason why the chinese are so respected today is because of their seat at the security council. And we give that to them. We took the seat away from Taiwan and give it to the Communists. The only power the chinese have is in making deadly deadly viruses that mutate from farm animals to humans.

Yeah, funny how we can turn on a democratic ally and snuggle with a communist regime if it suits our interests.

Damn the United States for acting in its own interests. Damn, damn, damn them.

...Anyway

China has a growing educated population, their universities put out more engineers, doctors, and scholars than us.
They're already more of a capatalist economy than communist, they have largest military in the world with several million officers and they're already nuclear. Not to mention they have vast natural resources, and a very high growth economy.

All those signs point to a rising super power that could easily equal or surpass our own given a decade or two.

 

[Dari]

Originally posted by: sMiLeYz

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: LilBlinbBlahIce

Originally posted by: Dari
One of the reason why the chinese are so respected today is because of their seat at the security council. And we give that to them. We took the seat away from Taiwan and give it to the Communists. The only power the chinese have is in making deadly deadly viruses that mutate from farm animals to humans.

Yeah, funny how we can turn on a democratic ally and snuggle with a communist regime if it suits our interests.

Damn the United States for acting in its own interests. Damn, damn, damn them.

...Anyway

China has a growing educated population, their universities put out more engineers, doctors, and scholars than us.
They're already more of a capatalist economy than communist, they have largest military in the world with several million officers and they're already nuclear. Not to mention they have vast natural resources, and a very high growth economy.

All those signs point to a rising super power that could easily equal or surpass our own given a decade or two.

All those numbers are nominal. It's the quality, not quantity, that matters.
unless the chinese go through some fundamental social, political, and cultural changes, they will never reach superpower status.

 

[ReiAyanami]

they will only be a step behind us technology wise because greedy companies and the democrats will sell them our technologies

 

[LunarRay]

Quote by Glen 1

So why the China fixation? Why does anyone believe that China will become more than a regional power, when a comparable neighbor state hasn't and shows no sign of becoming in any of our (or probably our grandchildren's lives) a "superpower" like the U.S. or former USSR in its glory days?[/quote]

Well to start they are the entire region... What is the size of their army... they are educating to the US level and beyond... They have our secrets... if you believe what you read. They are nuked and they are not precluded by some fair play notion to be nice.. they have resources or can easily acquire them....
Besides they are tooling up for Armageddon...

 

[cpumaster]

Originally posted by: HJD1
Quote by Glen 1

So why the China fixation? Why does anyone believe that China will become more than a regional power, when a comparable neighbor state hasn't and shows no sign of becoming in any of our (or probably our grandchildren's lives) a "superpower" like the U.S. or former USSR in its glory days?

Well to start they are the entire region... What is the size of their army... they are educating to the US level and beyond... They have our secrets... if you believe what you read. They are nuked and they are not precluded by some fair play notion to be nice.. they have resources or can easily acquire them....
Besides they are tooling up for Armageddon...[/quote]


China currently has nuclear weapon capable of destroying the whole world when they're under attack just like us and the Russian and maybe Britain, they're consider more of a regional super power today and that is not because of their seat in the security council. The seat was given to them as a recognition of their status, as the US-supported Nationalist govt lost the war in China and ran to Taiwan. Today China military power although well behind US in term of technology advantage, is powerful enough to crush any of their neighbour. And if we're going by our military as standard for super power, then no other country is, not even USSR at their peak and former glory self.

 

[SnapIT]

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: LilBlinbBlahIce

Originally posted by: Dari
One of the reason why the chinese are so respected today is because of their seat at the security council. And we give that to them. We took the seat away from Taiwan and give it to the Communists. The only power the chinese have is in making deadly deadly viruses that mutate from farm animals to humans.

Yeah, funny how we can turn on a democratic ally and snuggle with a communist regime if it suits our interests.

Damn the United States for acting in its own interests. Damn, damn, damn them.

But still so swift to condemn other contries that do the same... ahhh... the irony is bleeding me dry...

 

[sMiLeYz]

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: sMiLeYz

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: LilBlinbBlahIce

Originally posted by: Dari
One of the reason why the chinese are so respected today is because of their seat at the security council. And we give that to them. We took the seat away from Taiwan and give it to the Communists. The only power the chinese have is in making deadly deadly viruses that mutate from farm animals to humans.

Yeah, funny how we can turn on a democratic ally and snuggle with a communist regime if it suits our interests.

Damn the United States for acting in its own interests. Damn, damn, damn them.

...Anyway

China has a growing educated population, their universities put out more engineers, doctors, and scholars than us.
They're already more of a capatalist economy than communist, they have largest military in the world with several million officers and they're already nuclear. Not to mention they have vast natural resources, and a very high growth economy.

All those signs point to a rising super power that could easily equal or surpass our own given a decade or two.

All those numbers are nominal. It's the quality, not quantity, that matters.
unless the chinese go through some fundamental social, political, and cultural changes, they will never reach superpower status.

They're no longer even a Communist state, by any stretch of the term.
Funny that you should mention that since China has gone through PROFOUND social/economical/political change the last 10 years... the changes in the next ten years will even be more hyper accelerated.

Theres no question they're on the way to becoming a superpower, it's only a matter of time.

 

[Siddhartha]

I always think of China's potential. Would China be a superpower if it followed the US economic and political model?

 

[SnapIT]

Originally posted by: sMiLeYz

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: sMiLeYz

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: LilBlinbBlahIce

Originally posted by: Dari
One of the reason why the chinese are so respected today is because of their seat at the security council. And we give that to them. We took the seat away from Taiwan and give it to the Communists. The only power the chinese have is in making deadly deadly viruses that mutate from farm animals to humans.

Yeah, funny how we can turn on a democratic ally and snuggle with a communist regime if it suits our interests.

Damn the United States for acting in its own interests. Damn, damn, damn them.

...Anyway

China has a growing educated population, their universities put out more engineers, doctors, and scholars than us.
They're already more of a capatalist economy than communist, they have largest military in the world with several million officers and they're already nuclear. Not to mention they have vast natural resources, and a very high growth economy.

All those signs point to a rising super power that could easily equal or surpass our own given a decade or two.

All those numbers are nominal. It's the quality, not quantity, that matters.
unless the chinese go through some fundamental social, political, and cultural changes, they will never reach superpower status.

They're no longer even a Communist state, by any stretch of the term.
Funny that you should mention that since China has gone through PROFOUND social/economical/political change the last 10 years... the changes in the next ten years will even be more hyper accelerated.

Theres no question they're on the way to becoming a superpower, it's only a matter of time.

Excuse me, but china has left communism behind????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

Ehhh... NO

China is still a communistic, socialistic (a word often misused about the european countries which are not and have never ever been socialistic) dictatorship...

THAT, my friend is the most factual statement you will get in this thread...

 

[cpumaster]

French was or is ruled by socialist party right? maybe not dictatorship, but China also doesn't has dictatorship, case in point they have 3 diffrent rulers for the past 20 yrs

 

[ElFenix]

people have been saying china will become a power for the last 200 years. maybe its been entered into the list of great powers. a superpower has to have the alignment of a large part of the world's countries behind it, and it doesn't hurt if some of those are great powers in and of themselves. i don't see the chinese getting that anytime soon.

 

[cpumaster]

actually back then 500-1000 years ago, China was a world super power, it has army as or more powerful than the Rome, oh and the Mongol has to be the most powerful nation in history ever...

 

[0roo0roo]

economic super power? sure. military projection? no.

as china becomes richer, it will have problems. as the gap between the rich and poor continues to grow at a rapid pace, their governments communist legitimacy is going to be in question. as more people grow affluent and demand freedom, the oppressive government will come under stress. my guess is china will continue to have a lot of poor people holding it down. going from dirt poor to comfortable is relatively easy. growing past that with a growing economic divide in a supposedly communist government is another thing. china's sphere of influence doesn't extend much past asia for obvious and historical reasons.

there are already growing protests by chinese who have become unemployed thanks to capitalist reform of many state industries. yes, no photography of protest is allowed. gotta love it.

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: cpumaster
actually back then 500-1000 years ago, China was a world super power, it has army as or more powerful than the Rome, oh and the Mongol has to be the most powerful nation in history ever...

500 to 1000 years ago rome had a rather small army.

 

[xuanman]

Originally posted by: 0roo0roo
economic super power? sure. military projection? no.

as china becomes richer, it will have problems. as the gap between the rich and poor continues to grow at a rapid pace, their governments communist legitimacy is going to be in question. as more people grow affluent and demand freedom, the oppressive government will come under stress. my guess is china will continue to have a lot of poor people holding it down. going from dirt poor to comfortable is relatively easy. growing past that with a growing economic divide in a supposedly communist government is another thing. china's sphere of influence doesn't extend much past asia for obvious and historical reasons.

there are already growing protests by chinese who have become unemployed thanks to capitalist reform of many state industries. yes, no photography of protest is allowed. gotta love it.

i agree with most of your points. china's economic development the past 25 years have been nothing short of phenomenal, but there are no doubt substantial growing pains trying to implement capitalist market reforms to a one-party state government. furthermore, china's population is situated mainly in the agricultural sector, so as urbanites become wealthier, there will be continuing income divergence. that being said, anyone who has been to china recently is already aware of the 'capitalist make-money' mentality that many chinese now have, and the standard of living in chinese cities is quite incredible. while i could never live in rural china, i could certainly live as comfortably in beijing or shanghai as in nyc. china is already the most important player in east asia, and its influence will only continue to grow.

 

[Martin]

Originally posted by: SnapIT

Originally posted by: sMiLeYz

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: sMiLeYz

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: LilBlinbBlahIce

Originally posted by: Dari
One of the reason why the chinese are so respected today is because of their seat at the security council. And we give that to them. We took the seat away from Taiwan and give it to the Communists. The only power the chinese have is in making deadly deadly viruses that mutate from farm animals to humans.

Yeah, funny how we can turn on a democratic ally and snuggle with a communist regime if it suits our interests.

Damn the United States for acting in its own interests. Damn, damn, damn them.

...Anyway

China has a growing educated population, their universities put out more engineers, doctors, and scholars than us.
They're already more of a capatalist economy than communist, they have largest military in the world with several million officers and they're already nuclear. Not to mention they have vast natural resources, and a very high growth economy.

All those signs point to a rising super power that could easily equal or surpass our own given a decade or two.

All those numbers are nominal. It's the quality, not quantity, that matters.
unless the chinese go through some fundamental social, political, and cultural changes, they will never reach superpower status.

They're no longer even a Communist state, by any stretch of the term.
Funny that you should mention that since China has gone through PROFOUND social/economical/political change the last 10 years... the changes in the next ten years will even be more hyper accelerated.

Theres no question they're on the way to becoming a superpower, it's only a matter of time.

Excuse me, but china has left communism behind????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

Ehhh... NO

China is still a communistic, socialistic (a word often misused about the european countries which are not and have never ever been socialistic) dictatorship...

THAT, my friend is the most factual statement you will get in this thread...

I would disagree. Sure, the chinese call them selves communist, but I really do see them as being authoritarian (think Pinochet) rather than communist.

 

[kazeakuma]

Originally posted by: MartyTheManiak

Originally posted by: SnapIT

Originally posted by: sMiLeYz

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: sMiLeYz

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: LilBlinbBlahIce

Originally posted by: Dari
One of the reason why the chinese are so respected today is because of their seat at the security council. And we give that to them. We took the seat away from Taiwan and give it to the Communists. The only power the chinese have is in making deadly deadly viruses that mutate from farm animals to humans.

Yeah, funny how we can turn on a democratic ally and snuggle with a communist regime if it suits our interests.

Damn the United States for acting in its own interests. Damn, damn, damn them.

...Anyway

China has a growing educated population, their universities put out more engineers, doctors, and scholars than us.
They're already more of a capatalist economy than communist, they have largest military in the world with several million officers and they're already nuclear. Not to mention they have vast natural resources, and a very high growth economy.

All those signs point to a rising super power that could easily equal or surpass our own given a decade or two.

All those numbers are nominal. It's the quality, not quantity, that matters.
unless the chinese go through some fundamental social, political, and cultural changes, they will never reach superpower status.

They're no longer even a Communist state, by any stretch of the term.
Funny that you should mention that since China has gone through PROFOUND social/economical/political change the last 10 years... the changes in the next ten years will even be more hyper accelerated.

Theres no question they're on the way to becoming a superpower, it's only a matter of time.

Excuse me, but china has left communism behind????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

Ehhh... NO

China is still a communistic, socialistic (a word often misused about the european countries which are not and have never ever been socialistic) dictatorship...

THAT, my friend is the most factual statement you will get in this thread...

I would disagree. Sure, the chinese call them selves communist, but I really do see them as being authoritarian (think Pinochet) rather than communist.

I agree, it is only really a matter of time. Without drastic intervention from outside forces, China is well on it's way to becoming a dominant player in the world again. A China is not a communist, socialistic dictatorship. That would be one of the most false statements in this thread. Living in the Asia-Pacific area, I can personally say the business opportunities are astounding and have been for the last 5-10 years. I know a few people personally who are investors, not to mention our Mayor makes regular visits to China in support of our businesses.

 

[ElFenix]

theres quite a bit of speculation that china has been fudging its growth numbers for several years.

 

[oogabooga]

China is quickly becoming an economic giant. Major companies outside of the region are investing into their fast growing economy, and even Chinese companies are starting to dominate. (In 2001 a Chinese computing company (legend I think it was) broke into the Japanese markets successfully). There is no doubt there is a growing economic power in China, and with the vast resources and potential in china, they will surely rise to power economically.

HOWEVER: a super power is not defined by sheer economic prowless alone. Despite their glowing influence in the global world community, China is in no position of military power. Unfortunately, one of the defining factors of the world today (and forever past) is how large and powerful your army is, and how well they can fight. China threatens Taiwan yes, and I agree by sheer size, the Chinese can throw rocks and win, but in the modern age of war, China is behind. In all reality their Army is as well off as the Iraqi Army (equipment wise). Better trained and if need be possessing Nuclear Weapons, But in the 'modern age' we have seen that the key to military victory now is speed, flexibility, and strength.

China has gone through intense economical change, but perhaps even some social reform. But political change? I do not agree to any terms.
India I believe actually has a LARGER population that China (one baby rule in China) and has passed China up for some time
The Chinese GDP is 10 Trillion Yuan. The US GDP is 10 Trillion Dollars. The exchange rate is roughly 8:1 (or Basically China has about a 1.5 Trillion Dollar GDP, no where near US). To give you further comparison, the entire EU has an 8 Trillion Dollar GDP.
The Russians were large enough to crush their neighbors, but Chechnya gave them a run for their money.