I'm not sure if you are getting the answer you are looking for.
Here is my understanding of it:
Chips are engineered to certain operating points. Hopefully, when they are fabricated it alll turns out dead correct, but probably not. Every chip comes out different, although the ones in the same run turn out mostly very close. The supply voltage is one operating point. The switching point of the transistors, low to high and back, is another operating point. Altering the supply voltage also moves the switching points of the transistors slightly, the voltage/current at which the transistor changes from a low state to a high state, and visa versa. The net effect, though, is that the rate of change of the voltage/current is a little steeper at a higher voltage. That is critical when the CPU is operating near its upper speed limit. So it reaches the point of switching faster. Raising the voltage would always increase the switching speed, except that, as you noted, it also has other effects that go against that.
Cool transistors switch faster than warm transistors. It has something to do with thermal electrons, that is electrons moving radomly due to heat, interfering with signal electrons. That makes it harder to switch from one state to another. At absolute zero, transistors hit their maximum speed. I think it is something like 30% faster than room temp. The applied voltage also determines the average energy and therefore also the heat generated and temperature. You could possibly hit the point where changing the voltage does more harm than good. However I think most OC limits are reached before that and are due to irregularities between transistors causing a lack of synchonization between things that need to be eactly at the right time. It's just that the switching speed is one part of the problem.
It is incorrect to think that voltage is not a killer. The insulators in the field effect transistors, and elsewhere, are very thin. The breakdown voltage, that is the voltage at which the insulating properties break down and there is conduction through the insulator, most probably catastrophic, is not much higher than the normal operating voltage. It normally does not need to be much higher, and there are reasons that a thin insulator is a good thing. One transistor in 100 milliion not working right likely would make the CPU non-functional. This mechanism is probably the chief cause of sudden failure. However, as long as the voltage is below the breakdown, it wouldn't decrease the chip lifetime.
It is probably true that the failure of an insulator is at slightly higher voltage when it is cooler. Just a guess. But if so, I doubt that 20 degrees would be significant. Without hearing it from a professinal in the fab bussiness, I would not believe that cooling noticeably protects transistors from the breakdown effect.
I am told that there is such a thing as chip lifetime. I guess something gradually happens to the doping structure that makes transistors what they are, and that is accelerated by increased temperature. I never ran into anyone who claimed that his chip had died due to this though. (Although, how would they know?) What I have read is that chips that are examined for failures (when they are operated under proper conditions) almost always fail due to an undiscovered defect present in the manufacture. Maybe a failure in the weld that connects the pins to the chip, or a too-thin spot in an interconnect. Something like that. So they "burn in" chips at the factory to try to get them to fail there. They subject chips to things they should not encounter normally. One person who does this at the factory said that the chips invariably come through working at a slower speed than before. DANG. I wish they'd let us have some without the torture test.
The only old chip (5 years?) that I ever tried out again actually OCed a little higher than it did before, probably because chipsets have improved since. This chip had been OCed to its stable max its entire lifetime (about 2 1/2 years) before it was retired.