Why can't weathermen predict the weather?

[Doggiedog]

The weather prediction for this weekend in NYC was supposed to be rainy with occasional T-showers. Well, yesterday it was absolutely gorgeous and Saturday had some rain but nothing major because it cleared up.

Last weekend, Memorial day weekend was supposed to be a complete washout. Again Sunday was gorgeous and Saturday was misty but not rainy.

This past winter, we were supposed to have 3 feet of snow during a "Noreaster" and it was absolutely nothing, probably about 6 inches or so.

Why can't these jack@sses predict the weather just one day ahead? How about even 12 hours? Instead of going on TV and saying "it is going to" or "it will" why don't they just say "we've been wrong 90% of the time but we might just get lucky this time and it may...."?

There should be some kind of repurcussion or rating system for these guys predictions. I don't know how many countless people cancelled their activities last weekend because of the weathermen's incorrect forecast.

 

[rudder]

the chaos theory.

 

[mk52]

cause people need somethin to bitch about

-MeliK

 

[GL]

Cities are now having a great affect on weather patterns but I'm sure the meteoroligists (sp?) haven't fully accounted for these effects and so predictions for weather in cities is iffy.

 

[gittyup]

Because they are not god! :Q

 

[kami]

weather is unpredictable. period.

it's funny how we only notice the outcome of a forecast when it's wrong, and not when it is right (which is the majority of the time).

 

[bacillus]

<< Why can't weathermen predict the weather? >>


I'm surprised no one has mentioned global warming in one guise or another!

 

[rc5]

In 30-40 years, we will be able to predict weather infinitely accurate, Because we are going to set weather as our will.

 

[scorp00]

My dad's a weatherman actually. And the weather is very unpredictable, he's fu(ked up his own plans on his own predictions because the weather is just that, unpredictable.

You could get a MUCH better forcast if they had better equipment, but no one want's to pay for it, so they are using 5-10 year old equipment because no one want's to pay more taxes and fund better machines.

They do they best they can though.

 

[Urinal Mint]

Rudder hit the nail on the head... the answer is real short and sweet:

Chaos Theory.

 

[gittyup]

You could get a MUCH better forcast if they had better equipment, but no one want's to pay for it, so they are using 5-10 year old equipment because no one want's to pay more taxes and fund better machines

Your not suggesting my local news channel send the people a bill for the weather equipmet. If your dad wants to be able to predict weather better, it is more likely that he work for a station that does spend lots of money on their own radar and such.

 

[Doggiedog]

What I don't understand is, how come with better and better technology, weather forecasts have gotten even less accurate? When I was younger, I remember listening to forecasts and having them relatively accurate. They would be pretty accurate for the next day's weather. But now, they can't even predict the weather 12 hours in advance.

 

[Homer_Simpson]

Doggiedog:

Weather predictions are in fact pretty good relatively speaking. Like, they predict hot weather here in Austin, TX, and i step outside, and guess what, it's freakin hot. But, the weather is so unpredictable, too many affecting factors. And to say that with better and better tech the predictions are gettin less accurate is not justifiable to say. Its been gettin a little better slowly.

Weather can change drastically within 12 hours...hell it can chnage within less than 1 hour.

Homer

 

[ggavinmoss]

If we can make only so-so models with supercomputers, how can a human do any better? As previous posts have said, there are too many variables to account for and that aren't being accounted for. This leads me to believe that once better data gathering is done and more is known about how we are affecting the weather, a computer will be able to model weather patterns.

-geoff

 

[ElPool]

&quot;well Jim, what can i say, if your right 51% of the time, then your bound to be wrong 49% of the time.&quot;