why can't the media accept that Romney has won the GOP primaries?

[nageov3t]

is there really a scenario in which Mitt doesn't win the nomination, short of some heretofore unknown scandal breaking? the last math I read indicated that Santorum would have to win all the remaining contests with +65% of the vote.

this WaPo op-ed kinda summed up my thoughts.

He won six of 10 states, including Ohio, the night’s marquee contest. His win rate was higher than John McCain’s in 2008 on a night that all but clinched the GOP nomination. He has won about 40 percent of the delegates he needs to win the nomination and has more than twice as many as Santorum, his nearest competitor. And the party’s new system requiring the proportional awarding of delegates, though it has slowed Romney’s coronation, now makes it essentially impossible for anybody to catch him.

The fact that Romney is still viewed to be in danger of losing the nomination says less about him than it does about the media. We have turned him into Candidate Sisyphus, providing him with a plentiful supply of boulders to push uphill. First it was make-or-break New Hampshire, then must-win Florida, then do-or-die Michigan and game-changing Ohio. Each time Romney prevails, we assign him a new test.

Only in American politics is a win not a win — a phenomenon that is puzzling the rest of the world. “Mitt Romney wins six on Super Tuesday but gets labeled a loser,” observed Britain’s Daily Mail. Discussing the phenomenon over lunch on Thursday, Gregor Schmitz of Germany’s Der Spiegel news magazine told me that the U.S. media’s propping up of Romney’s opponents is “intellectually insulting” to viewers and readers.

He’s right. On Intrade, the online market where people put money behind their opinions, Romney as of Friday night was given an 86 percent chance of winning the nomination; Santorum, in second place, had a 3.2 percent likelihood.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...nner/2012/03/09/gIQAyxqO1R_story.html?hpid=z2

I don't remember any of this talk about McCain failing to connect with voters when he was losing Southern states to Huckabee and Western states to Romney in 2012

is the GOP nomination actually in flux, or is this purely a conflict of the punditocracy's creation?

 

[Anarchist420]

The answer is because he hasn't. He doesn't even have 1/3 of the delegates necessary to win. I think he could still be the nominee, but if it's a brokered convention, then he will certainly not get the nom.

 

[nonlnear]

is there really a scenario in which Mitt doesn't win the nomination, short of some heretofore unknown scandal breaking?

At least you acknowledge that the heretofore known scandals of voter fraud won't stop him from winning.

 

[MovingTarget]

The answer is because he hasn't. He doesn't even have 1/3 of the delegates necessary to win. I think he could still be the nominee, but if it's a brokered convention, then he will certainly not get the nom.

This, lest Dewey defeat Truman again. They shouldn't call the nomination for Romney, especially when there is still the very real potential for a brokered convention.

 

[Fern]

The answer is because he hasn't. He doesn't even have 1/3 of the delegates necessary to win. I think he could still be the nominee, but if it's a brokered convention, then he will certainly not get the nom.

Incorrect.

Romney has almost 40% of the delegates necessary to win. (38.5% by my calc.)

Fern

 

[Fern]

why can't the media accept that Romney has won the GOP primaries?

The media wants/needs to keep it going, particularly the portion that focuses on politics (e.g., Chris Matthews' Hardball and the like).

What else would they report on? There's nothing going on the Democratic side. Obama is for all intents and purposes running unopposed.

They need to milk this for all they can until they turn to focus on the presidential election itself (Repub nominee versus Obama, but too early for that now).

Fern

 

[HomerJS]

why can't the media accept that Romney has won the GOP primaries?

Because he hasn't yet.

Maybe a better question is why can't Rick Santorun or Newt Gingrich accept that Romney was won the GOP primaries?

 

[woodie1]

Too many people haven't voted yet. Let them have their turn. Besides, would you rather hear about all the ME crap or the nominating process.

 

[Throckmorton]

I thought Ron Paul was the winner but the media was conspiring against him!

 

[IronWing]

The longer it goes, the more money the media makes. Almost all the campaign spending pours right into the media's coffers. If it were up to the media, we'd have elections every six months just to keep the money flowing.

Romney probably has it sewn up but I'd still rather see a brokered convention.

 

[Jhhnn]

The answer is because he hasn't. He doesn't even have 1/3 of the delegates necessary to win. I think he could still be the nominee, but if it's a brokered convention, then he will certainly not get the nom.

Romney is heavily favored by Repub leaders, so in the event of a brokered convention, he's the likely winner. Power is what it is.

It's not like they'll all do an about face in formation to nominate somebody else, particularly not Ron Paul. They'll rather make platform concessions to the Crazy, crippling Romney in November.

If Santorum becomes the nominee, Dems will be popping champagne corks long before the election, and the stock market will surge because an Obama win will be obvious. Fundie whacks will crawl out of the woodwork to support him, and he'll respond by pandering right back.

Nate Silver's take on the delegate count-

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...unting-is-santorums-delegate-math/#more-28081

 

[Jaskalas]

Going to the convention and kicking Romney out is a good way repudiate the establishment candidate who bought his Presidential ticket back in 2008.

 

[Fern]

The longer it goes, the more money the media makes.
-snip-

Good point.

Fern

 

[cubby1223]

Remember when the media accepted Florida was won by Al Gore?

 

[Thump553]

Two reasons:

(1) Romney doesn't have it anywhere close to mathematically lined up yet, and he has vast holes in his support. It is still quite concievable this could go to a brokered convention.

(2) The media makes it's money off viewership, if they keep talking it up like there is a real contest people will watch. Case in point-listen to the baseball commentators in a 7-1 game, bottom of the fifth. Do they ever suggest you might as well turn it off and go to bed early tonight?

You decide which is the more important reason.

 

[nageov3t]

Because he hasn't yet.

Maybe a better question is why can't Rick Santorun or Newt Gingrich accept that Romney was won the GOP primaries?

there's virtually no path to victory for Santorum or Gingrich. it's their right to continue running as long as they want to, but at this stage in the game in 2008, even with Romney and Huckabee scoring wins in the South and West against McCain, I don't remember the media giving nearly as much hype to their campaigns as they do to Santorum/Gingrich and talking about nothing but McCain losses (and virtually ignoring the wins, as happened on this past Super Tuesday)

 

[feralkid]

Because he hasn't yet.

Maybe a better question is why can't Rick Santorun or Newt Gingrich accept that Romney was won the GOP primaries?

Because Santorum and Gingrich have no duty to retreat under Florida law.

 

[cybrsage]

I want to hear more about the DNC conventions. Has Obama deigned to debate his opponents?

 

[Jhhnn]

I want to hear more about the DNC conventions. Has Obama deigned to debate his opponents?

Must Duh-vert!

 

[Aegeon]

The reality is Santorum DOES NOT need sufficient delegates to be simply nominated going into the convention, he merely needs a contested convention. (So some of the calculations of the number of delegates Santorum needs are simply basically wrong.)

All Santorum would need to do is persuade Gingrich to side with him at the convention, (possibly even give him the VP slot) and the number of delegates he needs to actually win on his own drops right there. While a greater question, he might be able to persuade Ron Paul to support him with enough concessions, (its not like all of Santorum's potential social views would get past Congress as laws) and this would further reduce the number of delegates Santorum needs to outright win in the primaries and caucuses.

The key point is it basically would be the decisions of Newt Gingrich (although since the delegates can make their own decisions more of them might side with Santorum regardless), and Ron Paul and not the general Republican establishment if it comes to a contested convention. It only comes to an actually brokered convention by the Republican establishment if its a stalemate with no single candidate able to get enough support even after negotiating with the other two candidates.

In other words there remain perfectly plausible scenarios where Santorum can win the nomination and the race definitely is not yet over. (Although I do think Romney is likely going to be the Republican nominee.)

 

[Fern]

there's virtually no path to victory for Santorum or Gingrich. it's their right to continue running as long as they want to, but at this stage in the game in 2008, even with Romney and Huckabee scoring wins in the South and West against McCain, I don't remember the media giving nearly as much hype to their campaigns as they do to Santorum/Gingrich and talking about nothing but McCain losses (and virtually ignoring the wins, as happened on this past Super Tuesday)

Romney dropped out of the 2008 very early. He dropped out on Feb 7.

But the media still carried on with the McCain v Huckabee stuff, and Huck had ZERO chance of winning.

Fern

 

[Fern]

People might want to bear in mind that the Repubs will have about 160 'super delegates' at the convention who may be able to put Romney over the top.

If this thing isn't wrapped up by May/June I think we're going to see pressure on Santorum and Gingrich drop out. Having this fought all the way to the convention leaves no time for the candidate to organize and effectively campaign against Obama; it would be political suicide by the Repubs and they know it.

This is where the Super PACs may exert some game-changing influence. The old expression is that candidates don't drop out, they merely run out of money. Had we not seen super PACs donate to Santorum and Gingrich they may well have dropped by now, or would very soon. It's the PAC money that has resurrected those two campaigns.

Hence, we may pressure on the big PAC donors like that casino guy keeping Gingrich alive.

Fern

 

[Screech]

If at the convention, Romney had 40% of all delegates, the delegates could combine their votes for santorum or someone else provided the delegates fern mentioned above don't just give it to romney.

This also might be why nobody (of the last four) had dropped out. If gingrich dropped out, for example, even if 90% of his voters went to santorum and 10% to romney, romney still nets more delegates at the convention as a result.

So, it isn't over yet...

 

[NeoV]

Fern - isn't it the candidates themselves that are keeping this going?- I love it when the right points out all of these media-fueled conspiracy theories despite any facts that say otherwise.

Isn't a contested convention a real possibility as well?

IF Santorum, Gingrich, and oh, yes, for some reason Paul is still in this - when they give up the media will stop covering it. Really not difficult to figure out.

 

[nageov3t]

Fern - isn't it the candidates themselves that are keeping this going?- I love it when the right points out all of these media-fueled conspiracy theories despite any facts that say otherwise.

Isn't a contested convention a real possibility as well?

IF Santorum, Gingrich, and oh, yes, for some reason Paul is still in this - when they give up the media will stop covering it. Really not difficult to figure out.

there's nothing wrong with covering the other candidates... but it makes me scratch my head on a night like last Tuesday where Romney won 6/10 states (including the newest "must win" contest that the punditocracy setup for him) and placed in second where he didn't, but all the talking heads can talk about is where he lost.