Well it probably won't get THAT bad.... (never say never,though) How much worse do you think it will get? Anyone here suffering lay-offs?
WHoa!!! The market is tankin'....what do ya think....another Great Depression?
- Thread starter KDOG
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Hamburgerpimp
Diamond Member
- Aug 15, 2000
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To tell you the truth if I never listened to the radio or the news I wouldn't know anything was amiss. Just life as usual...
lirionYou make a good point. I heard or read somebody saying that the most dangerous thing that could bring a recession/depression on is the media constantly trying to convince everybody that there is one.
Skoorb OUch sorry to hear that!!!
Skoorb OUch sorry to hear that!!!
Hamburgerpimp
Diamond Member
- Aug 15, 2000
- 7,464
- 1
- 76
Sh1t, I remember when the Market was going through the roof. Everyone said Greenspan's interest rate hikes would slow the economy. And they all said the Tech Industry is immune to these hikes. Now, look at this pile of sh1t we're in. Greenspan may even have a 50 or 75 basis-point cut and the SOB will still tank! Unbelievable! Nobody wanted to heed the warnings of the Market. What the hell do you think is going to happen when interest rates hikes can't even slow the Economy? Like we didn't see this coming my ASS!
I think this is more of a media-induced recession than anything. I mean, the .com bubble HAD to burst. You had hundreds of companies start up for the SOLE sake of screwing investors out of money. (i.e. get some VC, and then quickly IPO, and the startup employees get out looking great) These companies had NO business plans, and just generally sucked. I'm very happy that finally ended.
Unfortunately I think that caused the current landslide, especially with the media instantly calling for a recession. If I listen to the radio once more and hear some damn "expert" talk about how we're going to be in recession for a decade I'm going to barf. These are the same idiots that valued the dumb .com's so high. In effect they caused their own depression in a way.
oh well.. I just hope it doesn't effect me getting and keeping a job. As long as I can make $40k/yr I'll be happy. It does make me a bit scared though, I wanted to have about 5 years of experience and some substantial savings before the next economic downturn. I never graduated high school, so I will be one of the first to go. I was planning to get my diploma this summer (I've been in the tech workforce making some good money for almost 3 years now), just so I don't look THAT bad to future employers.
-Phil
Unfortunately I think that caused the current landslide, especially with the media instantly calling for a recession. If I listen to the radio once more and hear some damn "expert" talk about how we're going to be in recession for a decade I'm going to barf. These are the same idiots that valued the dumb .com's so high. In effect they caused their own depression in a way.
oh well.. I just hope it doesn't effect me getting and keeping a job. As long as I can make $40k/yr I'll be happy. It does make me a bit scared though, I wanted to have about 5 years of experience and some substantial savings before the next economic downturn. I never graduated high school, so I will be one of the first to go. I was planning to get my diploma this summer (I've been in the tech workforce making some good money for almost 3 years now), just so I don't look THAT bad to future employers.
-Phil
Man, my 401k's lost about 10% in the past couple days. Guess I shouldn't have been so agressive with my distribution. 50% in agressive growth and 50% in low-priced stocks.
Anyways, no one I personally know has been laid off. One or 2 were close, but they're at dot.coms (One down here in the bay area and another in Seattle). Everyone else is at a big tech company like Sun, Intel, SGI, SAP, etc... Plus, the majority of them are developers... and we're the last ones to go, baby!!!
Anyways, no one I personally know has been laid off. One or 2 were close, but they're at dot.coms (One down here in the bay area and another in Seattle). Everyone else is at a big tech company like Sun, Intel, SGI, SAP, etc... Plus, the majority of them are developers... and we're the last ones to go, baby!!!
Its not even a recession at the moment. Everyone knew this correction needed to happen sometime or another, now the media will blow it out of porportion and increase teh severity of the situation even more. I don't think its going to be too bad, its just going to take some time to pull out of the slump ,and high gasoline prices won't help.
<< WHoa!!! The market is tankin'....what do ya think....another Great Depression? >>
What was so great about the last one?
I'm into systems administration and *high* level tech support (i.e. the guy who you only get CALLED BY, I *never* will take an escalated call, and I have my own private number, etc. ) (I actually enjoy it, don't ask.)
So, I'm not that uncessary. My pure love is system administration, but I'd like to do high-level tech support (which I am now) for a year or two just to gain the experience and see what end-users problems really are. Kind of to keep a perspective and mostly to gain communication skills. Systems administration though is definitely what I want to be doing in 5 years.
What I'm REALLY glad I didn't do, was take a job at SGI I was offered for doing high-end tech support (i.e bugs) with Irix/Apache. I'm a self-proclaimed Apache expert, and working for SGI sure sounded good.. but I opted for the 10 mile closer job for commute time reasons.
still scared here though.
-Phil
) (I actually enjoy it, don't ask.)So, I'm not that uncessary. My pure love is system administration, but I'd like to do high-level tech support (which I am now) for a year or two just to gain the experience and see what end-users problems really are. Kind of to keep a perspective and mostly to gain communication skills. Systems administration though is definitely what I want to be doing in 5 years.
What I'm REALLY glad I didn't do, was take a job at SGI I was offered for doing high-end tech support (i.e bugs) with Irix/Apache. I'm a self-proclaimed Apache expert, and working for SGI sure sounded good.. but I opted for the 10 mile closer job for commute time reasons.
still scared here though.
-Phil
The bottom line is that this is a well needed cleansing. Layoffs are up but that is holding up productivity/person. An overview of the fundamentals and we are in a better position than we were in '91. If history can teach us anything it may be that times like these do more to create a wealth gap (by LNW individuals selling assets in fear rather than hold for gains) than any legislation, although the broadcasters would never mention that. As soon as we get rid of the weak players(people that believe Greenspan takes action based on what equity mkts need, want or demand among other myths) we are poised for positive quality growth possibly the likes of which we've never seen.
Would it be that bad really? Might teach a lesson to society, make us all appreciate some things a bit more. Might be good for us.
Phil21: Wow, we must live pretty close. One of my roommate's is a sysadmin at SGI for their NT group. His job seems pretty stable (they just hired someone a while back) and his commute is better than mine. Takes him 5-10 minutes to get there. Mine is more like 15.
I was laid off on January 31st. Found a job 14 days later doing what I really enjoy. Head of an IT Department. While the old job paid much more, the new job offers satisfaction and less hours.
No, I don't believe we are headed toward another Great Depression. A market correction and a recession, yes. Fear from OPEC raising oil prices by cutting production is fueling some sentiment. Layoffs in older, non-tech companies are possible.
My theory is this: A lot of money was invested into the "dot-bombs". Money which was used for operations, paying employees, purchases of computer equipment, rental of office space, etc. Additionally, 32 bit operating systems required quicker and better hardware. So people bought it. All of this created a sharing of the wealth, fueling an economic boom from 1995-2000. Of benefit to much of the country. Then the bubble began to burst.
It wasn't just the dot bombs. Tech manufacturers over-produced last year. Look at memory and PC prices. Comparitively speaking, they are priced at the lowest point in the short history of this particular group. Computer purchases have evolved from a new gadget market to a replacement market. There is a large surplus of memory floating around.
There is, and always will be a demand for goods and services. My thinking is that the "fat" is being trimmed. The labor market will tighten up, but not collapse. In other words, the easy jobs where an individual is only marginally qualified and hired, will no longer exist. That individual may be required to take a lower paying job.
I believe we are heading toward a mild recession. Some industries and geographic regions in this country already are in a recession. It's like the last one. Tighten the belt. Spend less on luxury items. Once this happens, it begins to affect various sectors within the economy.
When the last recession began in 1991, my CDs were paying 10.8 percent. Now they are paying about 6.5. Loosening of credit will help some. Short term tax cuts should help some more.
Yet, the economy is larger and more complex, in my opinion, than it was 10 years ago. The proliferation of technology has created wealth. It should sustain it further, although at a lesser degree than in the five years previous.
The stock market is an emotionally driven mechanism. Supply and demand. How investors feel, and how they perceive the valuation of a corporation. Investors learned a big lesson with dot bombs. It goes back to the old analysis: "Invest in companies with a record of steady or climbing earnings." Very few dot bombs earned one cent.
Bears are out in force. They have been out before, so it's really nothing fear. The large point swings in the DJIA are expected because of the it's valuation. Yet, on a percentage level, it's not that great. A 33 percent drop, equal to the crash of '87, would mean shaving 3300 points off the DJIA.
No, I don't believe we are headed toward another Great Depression. A market correction and a recession, yes. Fear from OPEC raising oil prices by cutting production is fueling some sentiment. Layoffs in older, non-tech companies are possible.
My theory is this: A lot of money was invested into the "dot-bombs". Money which was used for operations, paying employees, purchases of computer equipment, rental of office space, etc. Additionally, 32 bit operating systems required quicker and better hardware. So people bought it. All of this created a sharing of the wealth, fueling an economic boom from 1995-2000. Of benefit to much of the country. Then the bubble began to burst.
It wasn't just the dot bombs. Tech manufacturers over-produced last year. Look at memory and PC prices. Comparitively speaking, they are priced at the lowest point in the short history of this particular group. Computer purchases have evolved from a new gadget market to a replacement market. There is a large surplus of memory floating around.
There is, and always will be a demand for goods and services. My thinking is that the "fat" is being trimmed. The labor market will tighten up, but not collapse. In other words, the easy jobs where an individual is only marginally qualified and hired, will no longer exist. That individual may be required to take a lower paying job.
I believe we are heading toward a mild recession. Some industries and geographic regions in this country already are in a recession. It's like the last one. Tighten the belt. Spend less on luxury items. Once this happens, it begins to affect various sectors within the economy.
When the last recession began in 1991, my CDs were paying 10.8 percent. Now they are paying about 6.5. Loosening of credit will help some. Short term tax cuts should help some more.
Yet, the economy is larger and more complex, in my opinion, than it was 10 years ago. The proliferation of technology has created wealth. It should sustain it further, although at a lesser degree than in the five years previous.
The stock market is an emotionally driven mechanism. Supply and demand. How investors feel, and how they perceive the valuation of a corporation. Investors learned a big lesson with dot bombs. It goes back to the old analysis: "Invest in companies with a record of steady or climbing earnings." Very few dot bombs earned one cent.
Bears are out in force. They have been out before, so it's really nothing fear. The large point swings in the DJIA are expected because of the it's valuation. Yet, on a percentage level, it's not that great. A 33 percent drop, equal to the crash of '87, would mean shaving 3300 points off the DJIA.
The economic boom we have enjoyed started in 1981....we had a very slight recession from 89 to 92.
This is a very large correction, nothing more or less.
If Greenspan caves and gives a .75% reduction in the Prime Rate....and it does not bring us out...them you can call it a recession. We are in deep do-do if this comes about.
Now, if the idiots trying to stop the President's Tax Relief Plan would shutup with their fear mongering, and the tax plan were to get passed we'd see immediate changes in the Market. We will get tax relief, but the longer it takes to get passed and implemented the longer it will take to recover.
BTW, not only will it pass as law, it will be larger! Imho.
This is a very large correction, nothing more or less.
If Greenspan caves and gives a .75% reduction in the Prime Rate....and it does not bring us out...them you can call it a recession. We are in deep do-do if this comes about.
Now, if the idiots trying to stop the President's Tax Relief Plan would shutup with their fear mongering, and the tax plan were to get passed we'd see immediate changes in the Market. We will get tax relief, but the longer it takes to get passed and implemented the longer it will take to recover.
BTW, not only will it pass as law, it will be larger! Imho.
Another Great Depression? Hell, we don't even officially have a recession yet. The definition of a recession is two straight quarters of negative GDP growth, which hasn't even happened yet.......
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