that's a bit like asking if there is going to be another damage-causing hurricane in florida this year. we can know some factors but not others, and thus can't say anything with high reliability. all we can say is what would happen if the election were today.
for bush:
-- worst in iraq behind him.
-- economy is coming out of its doldrums
-- he's seems to have better control of his dyslexia
for kerry
-- he's a smart guy, more politically astute than bush
-- clinton's guys are helping him out. you couldn't find a better team.
-- when you look at him in a 3/4 publicity photo his face doesn't look too much like 'mr ed,' the talking horse.
bush by a narrow margin. personally, i don't like either of them, but i think kerry is delusional if he thinks the un position on iraq is going to change by his talking nice to the french and germans. he leaves out that little bit about how they were getting rich on the status quo over there, and will not easily forgive us for killing their golden goose. likewise, bush is delusional if he thinks that social conservatism and fiscal spendthriftness is what moderates are looking for. its the other way around, stupid.
just one man's opinion.