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Which party is better for the stock market/GDP/inflation? Democrats or Republicans?

drewshin

Golden Member
found these articles interesting:

Stock market prefers Democrats to Republicans

CBS Marketwatch article
you need a login for the cbs marketwatch, so i'll place the most pertinent parts of the article below:

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Q. True or false: The stock market performs better when the President is a Republican.

A. False. Since 1901, the Dow Jones Industrial Average's average annual gain, after inflation, has been nearly twice as high when a Democrat has occupied the White House
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Q. True or false: During Republican Presidencies, the stock market has performed better when Congress also has been controlled by Republicans.

A. False again. On average during the 28 years since 1901 in which a Republican has been President and Democrats have controlled Congress, the DJIA has produced a 2.2 percent real return (before dividends). On average during the 25.8 years in which the Republican party has controlled both branches of government, in contrast, the Dow ($INDU: news, chart, profile) has produced an inflation-adjusted return of just 1.2 percent.
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Republicans better at keeping inflation in check.

Conventional wisdom also holds that Republicans are much better than Democrats at keeping inflation in check. And Davis' research reveals that at least in this respect it is correct: Inflation tends to be much lower when Republicans control both branches of government than when the Democrats are in power.

In fact, the CPI on average actually has been negative during the 25.8 years since 1901 when a Republican has been in the White House and the Republican party has controlled Congress.

This contrasts with an average CPI of 4.8 percent during when the Democratic Party controls both branches of government.


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I found this very interesting:

When both houses of Congress opposed the president, the return was a stellar 12.9 percent.
Libertarians may celebrate this as proof that the market likes gridlock and government inaction.
But the market likes steamrollers nearly as much: The S&P performs almost as well?returning 11.8 percent?when the presidency and both houses are held by the same party.
The only situation Mr. Market dislikes is what we have now: one house for each party. Those years have a -0.9 percent return.

______________________________________

And this:

Republicans are no doubt muttering that that's just the stock market, not the whole economy. But real GDP growth follows the same pattern. Since 1930 (the first year decent data is available), GDP growth was 5.4 percent for Democratic presidents and 1.6 percent for Republicans.


 
Oh you pore little thing, Where does it hurt, I would say man you have to get over the past, It is about time for Bush to win again, Oh and on your post the Democrates are not to good for anything other than saying the Republicans want to starve your kids, Kill the old people, Make the air and water dirty, Humm wonder what air and water the Rep, use
 
That just reinforced the idea of having changes.

When Republicans is in power, buy stocks.....
When Democrats is in power, sell stocks.....

Just doesn't work well for day traders.... Speaking of which, those of you who purchased COF for $25, did you make a killing? I know I did. 🙂
 
Originally posted by: DoubleL
Oh you pore little thing, Where does it hurt, I would say man you have to get over the past, It is about time for Bush to win again

im sorry for being such a pore 🙂

if you were to ask people which party does better for the economy, just within the last 70 years or so, most people would say republicans, but these numbers point to the opposite. of course, past performance does not mean much for future performance.

Oh and on your post the Democrates are not to good for anything other than saying the Republicans want to starve your kids, Kill the old people, Make the air and water dirty, Humm wonder what air and water the Rep, use

???? stop speaking gibberish. 🙂 what do you mean?
 
Originally posted by: Shelly21
That just reinforced the idea of having changes.

When Republicans is in power, buy stocks.....
When Democrats is in power, sell stocks.....

Just doesn't work well for day traders.... Speaking of which, those of you who purchased COF for $25, did you make a killing? I know I did. 🙂

Better sell. Look what they did to their provision for bad loans in the last quarter.
 
Originally posted by: Shelly21
That just reinforced the idea of having changes.

When Republicans is in power, buy stocks.....
When Democrats is in power, sell stocks.....

Just doesn't work well for day traders.... Speaking of which, those of you who purchased COF for $25, did you make a killing? I know I did. 🙂

didnt buy cof, but it looks like you got it damn near the bottom. :beer

myself, i bought shares (not enough though) in a company called RETK at 2.10 and am sitting pretty on it now. it's my only long term holding, had fun yesterday playing FNM on the bad news.
 
INteresting stats, but it also completely ignores that democrats have largely controlled the house and senate most of the last decade.
 
Well drewshin my young man if you can't understand what I said you are not a pore little thing, I am from the south, You are just plain well lacking of intellectual acuity
 
INteresting stats, but it also completely ignores that democrats have largely controlled the house and senate most of the last decade.

Here's a study which accounts for that, and just about any other variable you could possibly think of.

warning.... hardcore statiscal study linked here

It backs up the premise of this post quite well. Although the authors do basically hypothesize that the reason for outperformance under Democratic leadership is perhaps mostly a function of unrealistically low investor expectations owing to the election of a (D). Basically, their premise is that investors tend to think of Democrats as economic screwups, and are as a result consistently "surprised to the upside" when things don't wind up going as badly as they fear they could. The anecdotal evidence they've collected does seem to bear out the premise that investors tend to habitually underestimate (D)'s.
 
Q. True or false: During Republican Presidencies, the stock market has performed better when Congress also has been controlled by Republicans
heh furthermore....the last time the Republicans controlled both the Presidency AND Congress for 12 years was 1918-1930.

Which of course led us right into.....the GREAT DEPRESSION.
 
The problem isn't Democrat/Republican. It's Liberal/Conservative. Check your history. The Democrat and Republican parties have switched several times in history, so I've read (a long while ago).
 
heh furthermore....the last time the Republicans controlled both the Presidency AND Congress for 12 years was 1918-1930.

Which of course led us right into.....the GREAT DEPRESSION.

You kinda skipped an entire business cycle there, sparky. Sure, a Republican was in charge when the Great Depression hit. Which was after a Republican led the U.S. through the hugely successful decade called the Roaring 20s.
 
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