Which one State will be the indicator?

[GTKeeper]

Originally posted by: loki8481
it will be an early election night; if McCain loses two amongst PA, VA, NC, FL, or OH, I think he's done.

Just 1 of those actually.

 

[winnar111]

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: loki8481
it will be an early election night; if McCain loses two amongst PA, VA, NC, FL, or OH, I think he's done.

Just 1 of those actually.

No, he can lose VA or PA and still win if he wins the rest of the Bush 04 states.

It'll be an early election night, though.

 

[phillyTIM]

Actually, I believe that MISSOURI will be the real bell-weather state.

MISSOURI has certainly become a battleground state. It's one that Gore never even won in 2000, and Gore had more states in his cap than Kerry did in '04. MISSOURI is right in the heartland of RED-America, right on the backdoor of Republican stronghold Texas.

If Obama wins MISSOURI, it certainly will be a feat that will indicate the outcome of this election, and a feat that I think Obama can pull off!

But mark my word, my PENNSYLVANIA will never ever give herself up to McCain. Bet on it!

 

[mshan]

Missouri going for Obama might suggest that 350+ electoral votes is really in play.

North Carolina will probably be an earlier indicator that a blow out is in the works (say 325 - 350 electoral votes).

Colorado polling consistently out of the margin of error for Obama probably is the best indication that McCain has already lost, probably in the 290 to say 310 range, at least. Virginia going for Obama probably also strongly suggests Colorado, which seems to consistently track slightly more positively for Obama than Virginia, will break for Obama.

"Frankly, I think Al may be giving the McCain campaign too much credit. My guess is that something like this happened: they ran their usual set of internal polls over the weekend, and saw themselves 5 points down in Colorado and Virginia. 8 points down in Minnesota and Wisconsin, and 10 points down in Iowa and New Mexico. But perhaps Pennsylvania came in at a -6 or something -- not much worse than the others -- and they decided: why worry about all those states when we can worry about just this one." Link Link

I read race can't officially be called before 11 PM EST because Obama won't be able to officially collect 270 electoral votes before polls close in those states that would put him over the top.

 

[Pens1566]

Originally posted by: winnar111

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: loki8481
it will be an early election night; if McCain loses two amongst PA, VA, NC, FL, or OH, I think he's done.

Just 1 of those actually.

No, he can lose VA or PA and still win if he wins the rest of the Bush 04 states.

It'll be an early election night, though.

While true, he's already lost Iowa, so your theory is shot.


The correct answer is VA. Early call, if it goes the way it's currently polling the election is over early.

 

[glugglug]

Originally posted by: jonks
FL/OH/VA/NC are all EST. If McCain loses any of them, he lost the election. OH/FL are populous so I expect we'll hear back results from VA/NC much sooner. Watch Virginia where Obama is up by about 8 pts. If exit polls confirm predictions, it'll be over very quick.

FL & OH both have parts in Central time.

 

[jonks]

Originally posted by: winnar111

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: loki8481
it will be an early election night; if McCain loses two amongst PA, VA, NC, FL, or OH, I think he's done.

Just 1 of those actually.

No, he can lose VA or PA and still win if he wins the rest of the Bush 04 states.

What's the point of this statement considering McCain is behind in 9 states Bush carried? "If he carries the Bush states" is a precondition he cannot meet.

 

[Pens1566]

Originally posted by: glugglug

Originally posted by: jonks
FL/OH/VA/NC are all EST. If McCain loses any of them, he lost the election. OH/FL are populous so I expect we'll hear back results from VA/NC much sooner. Watch Virginia where Obama is up by about 8 pts. If exit polls confirm predictions, it'll be over very quick.

FL & OH both have parts in Central time.

No part of OH is on central time.

 

[GTKeeper]

Originally posted by: winnar111

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: loki8481
it will be an early election night; if McCain loses two amongst PA, VA, NC, FL, or OH, I think he's done.

Just 1 of those actually.

No, he can lose VA or PA and still win if he wins the rest of the Bush 04 states.

It'll be an early election night, though.

If Obama wins all the Kerry staes from 2004 + IA, NM, CO he wins the election. And he is in NM, CO and IA So McCain has to win PA, VA, NC, FL AND OH. If he loses just 1 of those he is toast.

 

[Farang]

By the time Colorado rolls around Obama will probably have already won one or two big red states like Virginia. Since Virginia is where he is most likely to do well, I think Virginia is the indicator. It is virtually impossible for McCain to win without it (and we'll know by that time that he hasn't picked up other eastern states like PA and NH).

 

[winnar111]

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: winnar111

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: loki8481
it will be an early election night; if McCain loses two amongst PA, VA, NC, FL, or OH, I think he's done.

Just 1 of those actually.

No, he can lose VA or PA and still win if he wins the rest of the Bush 04 states.

It'll be an early election night, though.

If Obama wins all the Kerry staes from 2004 + IA, NM, CO he wins the election. And he is in NM, CO and IA So McCain has to win PA, VA, NC, FL AND OH. If he loses just 1 of those he is toast.

Remember that Pennslyvania was a Kerry state. Kerry - PA + VA + IA + CO + NM = 265. McCain wins.

He can win without either VA or without NC among those 5. And in the event of a 269-269 tie, there can be some monkey business with the electoral college.

Both are unlikely, but that's another story.

 

[GTKeeper]

Originally posted by: winnar111

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: winnar111

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: loki8481
it will be an early election night; if McCain loses two amongst PA, VA, NC, FL, or OH, I think he's done.

Just 1 of those actually.

No, he can lose VA or PA and still win if he wins the rest of the Bush 04 states.

It'll be an early election night, though.

If Obama wins all the Kerry staes from 2004 + IA, NM, CO he wins the election. And he is in NM, CO and IA So McCain has to win PA, VA, NC, FL AND OH. If he loses just 1 of those he is toast.

Remember that Pennslyvania was a Kerry state. Kerry - PA + VA + IA + CO + NM = 265. McCain wins.

He can win without either VA or without NC among those 5. And in the event of a 269-269 tie, there can be some monkey business with the electoral college.

Ok, you missed my point.

Original question:
If McCain loses 2 amongst PA, VA, NC, FL, or OH he loses.

My point is if he loses 1 of those. I.E Obama wins either PA, VA, NC, FL, or OH he loses.

 

[Pens1566]

Originally posted by: winnar111

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: winnar111

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: loki8481
it will be an early election night; if McCain loses two amongst PA, VA, NC, FL, or OH, I think he's done.

Just 1 of those actually.

No, he can lose VA or PA and still win if he wins the rest of the Bush 04 states.

It'll be an early election night, though.

If Obama wins all the Kerry staes from 2004 + IA, NM, CO he wins the election. And he is in NM, CO and IA So McCain has to win PA, VA, NC, FL AND OH. If he loses just 1 of those he is toast.

Remember that Pennslyvania was a Kerry state. Kerry - PA + VA + IA + CO + NM = 265. McCain wins.

He can win without either VA or without NC among those 5. And in the event of a 269-269 tie, there can be some monkey business with the electoral college.

Sure, the math works if you ignore the Obama lead in PA and the 9 or so Bush '04 states. If you accept reality though, you realize that one of those Bush '04 states going blue ends it all.

 

[winnar111]

Originally posted by: Pens1566

Originally posted by: winnar111
Remember that Pennslyvania was a Kerry state. Kerry - PA + VA + IA + CO + NM = 265. McCain wins.

He can win without either VA or without NC among those 5. And in the event of a 269-269 tie, there can be some monkey business with the electoral college.

Sure, the math works if you ignore the Obama lead in PA and the 9 or so Bush '04 states. If you accept reality though, you realize that one of those Bush '04 states going blue ends it all.

All I'm saying is that it works. Not saying its likely.

Personally I don't think he has much of a chance.

 

[jonks]

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: winnar111

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: winnar111

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: loki8481
it will be an early election night; if McCain loses two amongst PA, VA, NC, FL, or OH, I think he's done.

Just 1 of those actually.

No, he can lose VA or PA and still win if he wins the rest of the Bush 04 states.

It'll be an early election night, though.

If Obama wins all the Kerry staes from 2004 + IA, NM, CO he wins the election. And he is in NM, CO and IA So McCain has to win PA, VA, NC, FL AND OH. If he loses just 1 of those he is toast.

Remember that Pennslyvania was a Kerry state. Kerry - PA + VA + IA + CO + NM = 265. McCain wins.

He can win without either VA or without NC among those 5. And in the event of a 269-269 tie, there can be some monkey business with the electoral college.

Ok, you missed my point.

Original question:
If McCain loses 2 amongst PA, VA, NC, FL, or OH he loses.

My point is if he loses 1 of those. I.E Obama wins either PA, VA, NC, FL, or OH he loses.

Not correct. McCain can win without PA, which he has to since it's +10 obama right now. But he then has to win CO/FL/VA/NC/OH/MO

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Originally posted by: glugglug

Originally posted by: jonks
FL/OH/VA/NC are all EST. If McCain loses any of them, he lost the election. OH/FL are populous so I expect we'll hear back results from VA/NC much sooner. Watch Virginia where Obama is up by about 8 pts. If exit polls confirm predictions, it'll be over very quick.

FL & OH both have parts in Central time.

No, neither do.

D'oh! sorry, the panhandle of FL does. My mistake.

 

[Lemon law]

I do not think any State will be a predictor. Its still going to be a race for 270 electoral votes, Obama is likely to carry all the blue states Gore and Kerry won, and all Obama has to do is poach a few red States, and it all over for McCain. Its more GWB&co than Obama, but bad GWB results have made the election into a 50 State contest and put McCain seriously on the defensive. Its going to be take a total miracle for Mccain to be able to defend all of those previous and now battleground red States, and even if Obama can win 33% of them, McCain is toast.