Which one State will be the indicator?

[sportage]

I feel if Obama wins Colorado, he'll will the full prize.
Colorado will be the indicator this time.
Colorado! Red? Or blue?
If Obama can get Colorado, that will reflect the overall trend.

 

[miketheidiot]

supposedly mccain is pulling out of both colorado and new mexico, as well as perhaps nevada

 

[ProfJohn]

Don't think he can win without it. Unless he really thinks he can get PA.

 

[Starbuck1975]

If Murtha keeps opening his big mouth, McCain might just take PA.

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: Starbuck1975
If Murtha keeps opening his big mouth, McCain might just take PA.

*facepalm*

 

[Starbuck1975]

*facepalm*

Why...I didn't realize it was politically advantageous to dismiss as rednecks the very voters you need to carry a state.

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: Starbuck1975

*facepalm*

Why...I didn't realize it was politically advantageous to dismiss as rednecks the very voters you need to carry a state.

i might be misreading you, but it was a facepalm toward murtha, as well as anyone else on the democratic side. Lets leave saying stupid stuff to the R's this time around.

 

[Puffnstuff]

Well where I live in FL all I see are McCain/Palin signs. I suppose if I were to go into the lower income areas of the city I'd see Obama signs. I tried to get my own McCain sign but they were out. I believe that FL will go to McCain by a small margin.

 

[heyheybooboo]

I don't think Colorado is the bellwether - besides, it's only got 9 electoral votes.

If I had to stick my neck out I'd say the candidate that wins 2 out of 3 with Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The issue right now is that Obama has many potential possibilities to hit the magic number. McCain is limited and has to fight for traditional red states (the majority of which he most likely will win) AND take 2 of the 3 listed above.

And even if McCain wins '2 of the 3' with Florida, Colorado, Nevada and other 'toss-ups' added to it - he still loses if he can't hold Virginia and North Carolina.

 

[StageLeft]

None. Mccain's campaign is lost. Short of winning california (harhar) he has nothing.election night won't even be that fun as we all know its findings.

 

[mrCide]

i live in south florida, ive seen nothing but obama ads and signs, i think ive seen 1 or 2 total mccain/palin stickers and 1 commercial in 2 months

 

[Pepsei]

we'll know once we see the landscape of east coast states.... specifically VA, PA, NC, and FL

 

[SP33Demon]

VA/NC on east coast, MO/CO/OH in the west/midwest. FL in the south, MT in the North. If McCain loses just one (MT aside), the election is over.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: sportage
I feel if Obama wins Colorado, he'll will the full prize.
Colorado will be the indicator this time.
Colorado! Red? Or blue?
If Obama can get Colorado, that will reflect the overall trend.

I've had Colorado for Obama since June.

The state that will be the pivot point this time is North Carolina

 

[mshan]

So many pundits and analysts are wondering why McCain is continuing to push for Iowa and Pennsylvania, despite the daunting poll numbers in those two states. There are two reasons. First, he's run out of options. If you assume Colorado is gone and that Virginia is teetering, he has to find 270 EVs somewhere. Second, Iowa and Pennsylvania are two of the oldest states in the union, as far as the age of their populations. Both states have tons of seniors, and if McCain can turn things around again with seniors, he should see movement first in these two states. Simply put, the campaign doesn't have a lot of options; it's not worth attempting to hold states that get McCain to 250 or 260 electoral votes. The game is getting to 270, and Iowa and Pennsylvania may be his last hope at keeping a path to 270 alive.

Link


At this point, I think there are so many states in play that there is no one bellwhether state.

Before everything collapsed for McLame, I would have said Colorado (not as indicating whether McLame was going to win, but rather how competitive he was).

McLame never invested much in North Carolina because it was a last firewall, which if breached, meant he had already lost the election. It is probably a bellwether as to whether as to whether Obama can reach 350 or more electoral votes on November 4...

 

[retrospooty]

McCain needs Fla... for sure, but Obama can win without it, easy. In fact, up until a few weeks ago, I dont think anyone thought Obama would win Fla anyhow. Now it looks like its his to lose.

 

[amddude]

I think it's a safe bet central florida is mccain territory. I see a lot more mccain signs.

 

[Hugh H]

If Virginia and Pensylvannia, both being on the east coast, get called early for Obama, it's over. Colorado and others will just be the icing on the cake.

 

[mshan]

Read that mathematically, Obama won't officially be able to reach 270 electoral votes before around 11 PM EST (polls close in states that will officially put him over the top at that time), so that is when official call will probably happen.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

I don't think ONE state will do it, he will need big states, in multiples and they're drifting away from him daily. Right now he's up in NH, how many electoral votes does the Granite state carry? 4 count 'em, FOUR EV's, pound that leaf peeper paradise Senator McCain! You go!

 

[GTKeeper]

Originally posted by: Hugh H
If Virginia and Pensylvannia, both being on the east coast, get called early for Obama, it's over. Colorado and others will just be the icing on the cake.

Yes.

McCain needs to win VA, NC, WV, Ohio, FL, to even have a prayer. Even if he wins those, if Obama wins IA, CO, and NV + all the Kerry states, he wins with 273 EVs.

 

[ElFenix]

ohio is the safe bet for indicator state. no republican has ever won president without it, and since the two parties have been squaring off i'll bet very few democrats have ever won without it.

 

[jonks]

FL/OH/VA/NC are all EST. If McCain loses any of them, he lost the election. OH/FL are populous so I expect we'll hear back results from VA/NC much sooner. Watch Virginia where Obama is up by about 8 pts. If exit polls confirm predictions, it'll be over very quick.

 

[Hugh H]

Originally posted by: ElFenix
ohio is the safe bet for indicator state. no republican has ever won president without it, and since the two parties have been squaring off i'll bet very few democrats have ever won without it.

Meh, I believe Obama will lose Ohio... the demographics against him are just too much. However, he will win anyways.

Haven't you noticed that he doesn't need Ohio or Florida to win the presidency? This is not 2000 or 2004 people.

 

[nageov3t]

it will be an early election night; if McCain loses two amongst PA, VA, NC, FL, or OH, I think he's done.