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When will the prices drop on SSD's?

giantpandaman2

Senior member
Hello,

I'm ready to pick up an SSD both for my laptop and my desktop. I tend to buy items (video cards, hard drives, cpus) right after a price drop. I know manufacturers are moving up to a new process soon, but I just saw the Intel price drop. So is now a good time to buy or should I wait a bit?

Thanks!
 
Prices are always dropping as new technology comes out. Sandforce drives have been dropping in price for a while now.

As to specifics, no one knows. Look for any good black friday deals, and buy if you want.
 
Pricing will drop as soon as you stop obsessing over it. Seriously, waiting for price drops is like watching water boil. 😀
 
They're not going to drop in one huge increment. 3rd GEN will get a little cheaper, 4th GEN will get a little cheaper...
 
They're not going to drop in one huge increment. 3rd GEN will get a little cheaper, 4th GEN will get a little cheaper...
Actually I wouldn't count on that. The dieshrink to 25nm should cut the cost to create Xgb ssds roughly in half and since SF and Intel both will get that around the same time, while the Intel drive is rumoured to not really gain much speed I would think we should see some decent prices.

Back when we transfered from 45 to 34nm we also got ~40% price cuts..
 
eMLC is going to seriously tear into production. Expect massive shortages from the 25nm fabs once they come out in february.

The enterprise is chomping at the bits for this stuff. Consumer hand me downs will be in short supply and >msrp for a while.

So i am not afraid to buy now and buy black friday to get a good deal.

$99 for 64gb sandforce? that's fair. $69 for X25-V - pretty fair.

The amount of time no longer wasted on drive latency: priceless.

(in business)
 
Prices do drop all at once in one huge increment when new technology is introduced.
They also crawl up and down based on supply and demand, but that only occurs if there is unusually low/high demand/supply and doesn't nullify the massive overnight drops due to new tech.

The next major price drop will occur when 25nm MLC + next gen controllers hit the market. Those will arrive concurrently, and are expected very soon, sometime in the next few months.
 
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One interesting thing to watch will be to see what happens to SSD pricing as IC density increases. It's probably going to parallel the trends of RAM pricing/density and HDD pricing/density. I don't have any clever or secret knowledge, I'm just speculating based on how RAM and HDD pricing has gone in the past.

Look at HDDs for example. For years, there's been a primary point around $100, give or take 15% - 20%. I remember buying an 80GB HDD for about $120 and thinking what a good deal it was. Now, 80GB HDDs still cost about $40 or so. But, for that same $100 you can buy 1TB to 2TB HDD.

There is a basic cost point for SSDs. The casing, the controller, and the PCB will always cost roughly the same amount of money. SSDs will probably hover at or near a similar fixed minimum price point just like everything else. The extreme dip in RAM pricing a year or 2 ago was an anomoly that I doubt we'll ever see again. Parts of the semiconductor industry almost put itself out of business and they will not likely let that happen again.

I suspect that the semiconductor manufacturers are going to keep their pricing fairly steady on NAND without a lot of major fluctuations. So, I would say don't expect a 32GB or 40GB SSD for $40 any time soon. If you do it will likely be older gen, closeouts, etc but they won't be available in any meaningful quantities.

Again, just my speculation.
 
the SSD controller is about 5$, the casing and board are also very cheap. This means we can have SSDs at a much cheaper minimum price point than a HDD once the tech matures.
 
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