Well,
We dont all have crystal balls, but some of use write price guides for a living. Assuming we are talking about the Athlon 64 3200+...
Let's look at some of AMD's other processors, which debuted at $450. The Athlon XP 3200+ debuted around $450 but unfortunately still hangs around $30. Lets look at the Opterons instead. Our earliest records indicate the 242 opterons were going for about $530 at debut. About 5 months later they have dipped $100 bucks. 20% isn't bad in my opinion.
However, it really wont be till the holiday season until we see more price cuts. By my best guess, and it is just a guess, I would think around early march we will see it break the $300 barrier. With product lines changing, and the FX line moving around, it could be slightly quicker than that, but i doubt it.
Its probably going to be August next year before you see it under $200. The Barton 2800+ was priced around $400 in January, and now its about $180.
Cheers,
Kristopher