When will SSD be $100 per TB?

[futurefields]

SSD are still prohibitively expensive for multi terabyte storage solutions

With 4k media and gaming 500gb drives dont cut it

Approx what year would the average joe be able to get a 1TB SSD for $100 or 2TB for $200

 

[FFFF]

My estimations would put it on 2H 2019.

 

[corkyg]

You want that in constant 2017 dollars?

 

[DaveSimmons]

My estimations would put it on 2H 2019.

Sounds about right. Flash RAM density needs to double again and then the process needs to mature.

 

[Capt Caveman]

Prices of SSDs have actually been going up.

 

[FFFF]

Prices of SSDs have actually been going up.

Indeed but that's just temporary, 2018 will see prices again going down significantly.

 

[futurefields]

Indeed but that's just temporary, 2018 will see prices again going down significantly.

Why would prices go down? They are getting away with the current pricing.

 

[JimmiG]

Personally I don't see why you'd need to store your 4K media on SSD. HDD are more than fast enough for that.

For games, I can kind of understand why you'd need more, because games just keep getting bigger. 40 - 60 GB for a single game isn't uncommon these days, and when streaming those high res textures, an SSD makes a huge difference. Unfortunately, the 500 GB 850 Evo currently costs about $15 - 20 more than it did when I bought mine over 1.5 years ago...

 

[ElFenix]

Why would prices go down? They are getting away with the current pricing.

flash ram makers have probably learned from all the disasters they had about a decade ago. they're now like the airline industry: consolidated down to a few major players, finally making money, and not ready to rock the boat.

 

[lehtv]

Aren't the current SSD prices due to higher demand for flash memory in mobile devices? Just like with the increasing DDR4 prices.

EDIT: Increased SSD demand in OEM computers is also to blame for increased standalone drive prices.

https://www.extremetech.com/computi...ter-thanks-limited-nand-supply-surging-demand

According to DRAMeXchange via CTimes, average contract prices for MLC NAND flash drives are expected to rise by 6-10% , while TLC products are anticipated to rise by 6-9%
[...]

The shortages are being driven by increased demand for NAND in the PC market and likely by increasing NAND densities on smartphones and tablets as well.
[...]

The crunch is expected to be relatively short term, as demand for PC laptops will cyclically decline after Q4, and more manufacturers will have 3D NAND manufacturing online by this time next year.

So, we should indeed expect prices to go down again from the beginning of 2018.

 

[FFFF]

Why would price go down? They are getting away with the current pricing.

Prices are usually set based on competition and supply vs demand ratio, once everyone's 3D NAND ramps up big time manufacturers will have a lot more in stock than demand requires. And mid 2018 is also expected for Chinese companies to flood the market too so there's additional supply from there as well.

 

[Fritzo]

One of our vendors had a chart a few weeks back showing storage costs...looks like they're expecting $100 1TB drives around 3Q 2018. Maybe even 2TB by that point. Fabs made some breakthroughs in manufacturing recently and we should see the fruits of that within the year.

Also, Intel's new Optane tech might switch the focus off of SSDs.

 

[FFFF]

Also, Intel's new Optane tech might switch the focus off of SSDs.

I really wouldn't bet on it, Optane Gen 1 is not as great as most expected.

 

[lehtv]

I think for high performance storage the focus is going to be on high end M.2 NVMe drives. Meanwhile the 1TB $100 drives will be 3D TLC either in the standard 2.5" form factor or as entry level M.2 NVMe drives.

 

[MarkPost]

Personally I don't see why you'd need to store your 4K media on SSD. HDD are more than fast enough for that.

For games, I can kind of understand why you'd need more, because games just keep getting bigger. 40 - 60 GB for a single game isn't uncommon these days, and when streaming those high res textures, an SSD makes a huge difference. Unfortunately, the 500 GB 850 Evo currently costs about $15 - 20 more than it did when I bought mine over 1.5 years ago...

Well, HDD is just like Optical drive, a dinosaur. To me, its unacceptable we are suffering yet that crap of storage solution. Not to mention I'm a silent PC fan, and its the only thing I can hear... I'm talking about idle noise and vibrations it produces all over the case

 

[Rifter]

2019/2020 is my estimate.