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Discussion When will Putin invade?

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When will Putin invade?

  • Before the Olympics?

    Votes: 1 3.6%

  • During the Olympics?

    Votes: 1 3.6%

  • After the Olympics?

    Votes: 17 60.7%

  • He won't...

    Votes: 9 32.1%
  • Total voters
    28
13Gigatons said:
China would collapse without people buying their exports....most countries are intertwined with each other today. China collapsing would cause the World economy to go into a tailspin.
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Imagine if NATO got involved directly/semi-directly to the point of distraction with Ukraine/Russia and THEN at that moment in a plot straight out of a Tom Clancy novel China moves on Taiwan?

I admit its not likely to happen for the reasons mentioned above among others but in the world we live in now I can't get the dang thought out of my head.

😕
 
I guess Putin secretly has been told he's got cancer or something and wants to make some noise before he expires for real.... how long did his parents last?

Vlad the Nuke Hailer.
Curmudgeon-mode, activate.
 
brianmanahan said:
ugh now putin has ordered the nuke systems to be switched from disconnected to "a special mode of combat duty"

due to western sanctions and "aggressive statements from NATO officials"
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Been quite a few years since I've felt the cold lead in the pit of my stomach that credible threats of nuclear war can bring.

😳

Reagans "Evil Empire" appears to be OTW back in full force.
 
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If this info is correct, it looks like the Antanov AN-225 has been destroyed. It's the world's largest plane.

www.aviationweekly.org

BREAKING: Antonov AN-225 Mriya confirmed as destroyed — Aviation Weekly

The worlds largest plane suspected of being destroyed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent attacks on Hostomel airport has been confirmed by the official twitter account of Ukraine only a few minutes ago.
www.aviationweekly.org www.aviationweekly.org

As sad as that is though, the loss of life and people's homes etc is even sadder. They can rebuild the plane eventually.

This plane could have potentially played a role in humanitarian aid though...
 
Captante said:
Imagine if NATO got involved directly/semi-directly to the point of distraction with Ukraine/Russia and THEN at that moment in a plot straight out of a Tom Clancy novel China moves on Taiwan?

I admit its not likely to happen for the reasons mentioned above among others but in the world we live in now I can't get the dang thought out of my head.

😕
Click to expand...


I can't see why China would want to try a military invasion of Taiwan. I can't see an upside for them. The destruction, and economic-damage, would be devastating, and a successful economy is the only thing that keeps the Chinese elite in power (and chaos at bay).

But then, I couldn't see any sense in Putin's Russia attacking Ukraine, so my predictions may not just be wrong, but downright jinxed. Maybe Xi is as insane as Putin? Just how many dangerous psychopaths are there in powerful positions in the world now?
 
pmv said:
I can't see why China would want to try a military invasion of Taiwan. I can't see an upside for them. The destruction, and economic-damage, would be devastating, and a successful economy is the only thing that keeps the Chinese elite in power (and chaos at bay).

But then, I couldn't see any sense in Putin's Russia attacking Ukraine, so my predictions may not just be wrong, but downright jinxed. Maybe Xi is as insane as Putin? Just how many dangerous psychopaths are there in powerful positions in the world now?
Click to expand...
There is some sense to invading Ukraine. They have natural resources, loads of them, and for a variety of industries. If electrification is in the future, it could be Ukrainian lithium going into those batteries. https://www.businesstoday.in/latest...son-behind-russias-invasion-323894-2022-02-25

Taiwan though, it's more likely to symbolically end the civil war from long past, make "compliant citizens" out of the ethnic Mandarin-speakers there, and get access to the tax revenue of what is already there.
 
pmv said:
I can't see why China would want to try a military invasion of Taiwan. I can't see an upside for them. The destruction, and economic-damage, would be devastating, and a successful economy is the only thing that keeps the Chinese elite in power (and chaos at bay).

But then, I couldn't see any sense in Putin's Russia attacking Ukraine, so my predictions may not just be wrong, but downright jinxed. Maybe Xi is as insane as Putin? Just how many dangerous psychopaths are there in powerful positions in the world now?
Click to expand...
Mostly true, the window for China to invade Taiwan closed a long time ago. That doesn't mean it's off the table completely, as a "red line" for China would be if Taiwan declared political independence. Although China's goal is reunification, the status quo is working fine for both sides. Politically, the biggest problem for China is that younger Taiwanese don't identify as "Chinese" anymore. So the chances of a political deal seem remote at best.

For a developed country, Taiwan's per capita GDP (nominal) is fairly modest. It's currently only double that of China, which still has a large population of peasant farmers. So for China, I think they see a long-term argument that once they become an advanced economy, an economic reunification becomes more palatable. I don't know what this would actually look like, because Taiwan sees the situation in Hong Kong SAR and they want none of that.

I'm no China expert, but my opinion is that Xi is not insane.
 
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