When will China's Economy implode?

[JS80]

I've read that anywhere from 30-50% of Chinese loans are bad. And with real GDP growth rate from 1999 (7%) to 2006 (10.5%) I wonder when their economy will stall.

I'm guessing they have at least 5-10 more years before they hit a recession.

 

[IAteYourMother]

it'll slow down, but not implode

 

[LegendKiller]

I don't think it'll be a recession. I really believe that within the next 5-10 years they will hit a massive slowdown and within 10 years after that will be in a severe depression. Bright candles are great, but they burn out quickly.

 

[slsmnaz]

Bad loans and the one child only rule will doom them. How can they deal with their elderly population? One guess...

 

[elektrolokomotive]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
I don't think it'll be a recession. I really believe that within the next 5-10 years they will hit a massive slowdown and within 10 years after that will be in a severe depression. Bright candles are great, but they burn out quickly.

... and by that time, their country will be a cesspool of irresponsible over-industrialization.

 

[tw1164]

Originally posted by: slsmnaz
Bad loans and the one child only rule will doom them. How can they deal with their elderly population? One guess...

outsourcing

 

[uhohs]

more deathbuses. :Q

 

[JeffreyLebowski]

Originally posted by: tw1164

Originally posted by: slsmnaz
Bad loans and the one child only rule will doom them. How can they deal with their elderly population? One guess...

outsourcing

We will always have Indians. They're close by.

The more important thing for us to worry about is what will China do when it happens?

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: slsmnaz
Bad loans and the one child only rule will doom them. How can they deal with their elderly population? One guess...

Ovens?

 

[DivideBYZero]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: slsmnaz
Bad loans and the one child only rule will doom them. How can they deal with their elderly population? One guess...

Ovens?

Bad taste?

 

[Aimster]

start selling weapons to all the new enemies the U.S will make?

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: DivideBYZero

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: slsmnaz
Bad loans and the one child only rule will doom them. How can they deal with their elderly population? One guess...

Ovens?

Bad taste?

Recanted.

 

[AgentJean]

Originally posted by: slsmnaz
Bad loans and the one child only rule will doom them. How can they deal with their elderly population? One guess...

Ship the Old people to the US.

After all the US is already paying Social Security to other illegals. What's a few billion more?

 

[Atheus]

I think it highly unlikely the economy will go into recession, it will probably just slow down as they move toward western living and working conditions.

Originally posted by: AgentJean
After all the US is already paying Social Security to other illegals. What's a few billion more?

<---- P&N

 

[OS]

incidentally, china's economy will probably collapse after the next US recession. After all, our consumer demand keeps feeding their factories and hides problems.

 

[yllus]

They'll be absolutely fine and gradually do away with those bad loans over the course of multiple decades, if:

A) The price of energy doesn't absolutely skyrocket, which would absolutely crush them
B) The world - the U.S. in particular - doesn't suffer from a bad financial crisis
C) Another power in the neighbourhood (ie. India or Russia) doesn't decide to wage war on them for resource or land reasons
D) Revolution comes quicker than they anticipate it

In all cases, the West will be sitting back and cheering it all on. Our huge headstart on industrialization and reliance on fossil fuels have us much better situated.