• Guest, The rules for the P & N subforum have been updated to prohibit "ad hominem" or personal attacks against other posters. See the full details in the post "Politics and News Rules & Guidelines."

When the US saw that 1000 vehicles of the Iraqi Republic guard were moving...

Page 2 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

joohang

Lifer
Oct 22, 2000
12,340
1
0
Originally posted by: ndee
Originally posted by: FoBoT
Originally posted by: ndee
It's just my opinion not to believe anything they show on CNN, that's all.
the key word in your statement there is "anything" , you say you will not believe anything they show on CNN

so you are totally biased against the war, then why bother to watch CNN? i wouldn't watch the Iraq TV news either for the same reason, so there you go
I meant not everything. English isn't my native language. Sorry for misunderstanding.
Yup. Not enough umlauts, äääh? ;) Welcome back, btw. :)
 

ndee

Lifer
Jul 18, 2000
12,680
1
0
Originally posted by: joohang
Originally posted by: ndee
Originally posted by: FoBoT
Originally posted by: ndee
It's just my opinion not to believe anything they show on CNN, that's all.
the key word in your statement there is "anything" , you say you will not believe anything they show on CNN

so you are totally biased against the war, then why bother to watch CNN? i wouldn't watch the Iraq TV news either for the same reason, so there you go
I meant not everything. English isn't my native language. Sorry for misunderstanding.
Yup. Not enough umlauts, äääh? ;) Welcome back, btw. :)
Hey Joohang. Jup, die Mods haben meine Verbannung 5 Tage früher aufgelöst :)
 

apoppin

Lifer
Mar 9, 2000
34,890
0
0
alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: charrison
Originally posted by: apoppin
Originally posted by: ndee

And I do not believe the bombs are quite as "precision" as they are made out to be by out millitary. We only see the hits . . . have you ever seen a "miss"? We KNOW there are misses.

And I do believe Saddam bombed his OWN marketplace to get arab sympathy. ;)
No one has every claimed that our weapons are 100% accurate. A few have and will fail. The stuff we are using today is significantly more accurate and reliable than that was used 12 years ago.
I am saying they are not as "remarkably accurate" as our military is saying . . . they tend to exaggerate success (I lived during the 'nam war) ;)

What is advantageous is that a MUCH HIGHER PERCENTAGE of the weapons are guided or "smart".

UNFORTUNATELY, THE AVERAGE IRAQI IS UNAWARE OF THIS OR DOESN'T BELIEVE IT AS HE SEES HIS NEIGHBOR'S KILLED BY (someone's) BOMBS.
 

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
58,686
2
0
Originally posted by: ndee
Originally posted by: Jmman
In this conflict we have used what, 7000 precision guided weapons like Tomahawks or JDAM's, and how many have not hit their target? 10? You do the math.....:)
What about the one at the market place? no one knows for sure. I was just wondering WHY they didn't bomb them if they knew for sure they were moving.
Considering reports of the crater as being 2ft (at most 4ft) deep and across, it definitely does not sound like a U.S. cruise missile or JDAM. Neither does the one from the other day. My guess is the Iraqi troops are doing it on their own to drum up support against the U.S. Either that or their weapons are just pitiful re:accuracy.
 

ndee

Lifer
Jul 18, 2000
12,680
1
0
Originally posted by: conjur
Originally posted by: ndee
Originally posted by: Jmman
In this conflict we have used what, 7000 precision guided weapons like Tomahawks or JDAM's, and how many have not hit their target? 10? You do the math.....:)
What about the one at the market place? no one knows for sure. I was just wondering WHY they didn't bomb them if they knew for sure they were moving.
Considering reports of the crater as being 2ft (at most 4ft) deep and across, it definitely does not sound like a U.S. cruise missile or JDAM. Neither does the one from the other day. My guess is the Iraqi troops are doing it on their own to drum up support against the U.S. Either that or their weapons are just pitiful re:accuracy.
Was it a rocket? How come the Iraqis can fire the rockets so precise?
 

etech

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
10,597
0
0
Originally posted by: apoppin
Originally posted by: ndee
Originally posted by: Jimbo


Just out of curiosity, what do you consider the MOST reliable new media?
You mean my news resource? You can't deny that propaganda is made on both sides. I just think it's somewhere in between, but not sure where.
I like them ALL . . . well FOX is sensationalism an more entertainment than news - it was more like watching COPS with the commentary of the Coalition forces kicking in doors . . . I listen to the BBC also.

When I say "all', I mean Western sources . . .

And I do not believe the bombs are quite as "precision" as they are made out to be by out millitary. We only see the hits . . . have you ever seen a "miss"? We KNOW there are misses.

And I do believe Saddam bombed his OWN marketplace to get arab sympathy. ;)
There's a reason the Iraqi General in charge of air defense of Baghdad was replaced. A large number of Iraqi AA shells and SAM missiles are being fired out of Baghdad. The chances of the warhead hitting the market place being Iraqi is much higher than it being a US missile. One of the most telling is that if it was a US missile the Iraqi's would have been holding up pieces of it on their TV to show the world. They didn't do that.

The Iraqi's did not precisely fire the rocket into their marketplace, it was most likely a dude SAM that fell back to ground.

ndee. I don't know what point you are trying to make. The convery of 1000 vehicles didn't exist. That was one of those 'fog of war' overblown reports. So the US could not hit it because it did not exist.

 

Marshallj

Platinum Member
Mar 26, 2003
2,326
0
0
Originally posted by: ndee
Originally posted by: Jmman
Yeah, large moving convoys are very difficult for our precison ammunition to hit ......
.....just like in 1991.......link
Well I'm just telling you cuz the coalition hit also something in Iran, an Oil refinery.

That cruise missile might have hit exactly what it was programmed to hit. It could have been human error... type a digit wrong and the missile may be go somewhere totally different than you wanted it to go, but it did follow its directions. Just like if you want to mail a letter to 123 main street, and you accidentally type 132 main street. The letter will go where you told it to, but it wasn't where you wanted it to go.
 

Marshallj

Platinum Member
Mar 26, 2003
2,326
0
0
Originally posted by: ndee


How come the Iraqis can fire the rockets so precise?

They can't. Which is probably why people are wondering if that damage might have been cause by one of Iraq's own missiles.

This crater was only like 4 feet deep. Even a 500 lb bomb will make a 15 foot deep crater that's 25 feet across. And a Tomahawk has a 1,000 lb warhead. It was a very small explosive whatever it was, which leads people to believe it was a SAM or anti aircraft artillery shell.
 

Krugger

Senior member
Mar 22, 2001
820
0
0
all the military analysts say that the 'precision' weapons are only accurate about 90% of the time. that means, 10% miss. maybe it's a little different than that, but missing 4% of the time out of 1,000 missiles means 40 went somewhere else.
 

Marshallj

Platinum Member
Mar 26, 2003
2,326
0
0
Originally posted by: Krugger
all the military analysts say that the 'precision' weapons are only accurate about 90% of the time. that means, 10% miss. maybe it's a little different than that, but missing 4% of the time out of 1,000 missiles means 40 went somewhere else.

Also you have to look at what they define as a miss. If it's supposed to land within 10 feet of the target and it lands 11 feet away, is that considered a miss? What about if the programmer types the target coordinates in wrong and the missile scores a direct hit on what it was programmed to hit? Is that considered a miss?
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
Originally posted by: Krugger
all the military analysts say that the 'precision' weapons are only accurate about 90% of the time. that means, 10% miss. maybe it's a little different than that, but missing 4% of the time out of 1,000 missiles means 40 went somewhere else.
That is not exactly correct. Take a JDAM, according the specs it can hit a 30foot target 95% of the time. By extrapolating out, this means it will hit a 35foot target 100% of the time. This does not however cover severe mechanical failure, in which the device could go anywhere...
 

BuckNaked

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
4,213
0
76
If I am not mistaken, Cruise Missiles would not be used on mobile targets, as they are GPS guided. The coordinates are programmed in prior to launch. Factoring in flight time, the vehicle could move a considerable distance prior to the missle striking its designated location... thus they would be used against stationary targets such as buildings... Laser Guided and Electro-Optical Guided ordinance would be used against vehicles, and would be guided onto the target by targeting pods onboard aircraft or by Special Operations Forces using land based Target Designation....

Dave
 

Marshallj

Platinum Member
Mar 26, 2003
2,326
0
0
Originally posted by: charrison

That is not exactly correct. Take a JDAM, according the specs it can hit a 30foot target 95% of the time. By extrapolating out, this means it will hit a 35foot target 100% of the time. This does not however cover severe mechanical failure, in which the device could go anywhere...

I don't think you can extrapolate this data and try to conclude what the accuracy is at 35 feet. We don't know what causes that 5% failure, therefore we can't derive any more information from that figure. For all we know, the GPS system may be able to receive a signal 95% of the time, and the other 5% of the time it loses the signal and the bomb falls way off target. Or like you mentioned, severe mechanical failure may occur 5% of the time. Or the computer on the JDAM might not be able to communicate with the jet's weapons system 5% of the time. Or it could be a combination of all those things, with the bomb working right 95% of the time, and various other problems occuring the other 5% of the time.

We just don't have enough info to make any extrapolations.
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
Originally posted by: Marshallj
Originally posted by: charrison

That is not exactly correct. Take a JDAM, according the specs it can hit a 30foot target 95% of the time. By extrapolating out, this means it will hit a 35foot target 100% of the time. This does not however cover severe mechanical failure, in which the device could go anywhere...

I don't think you can extrapolate this data and try to conclude what the accuracy is at 35 feet. We don't know what causes that 5% failure, therefore we can't derive any more information from that figure. For all we know, the GPS system may be able to receive a signal 95% of the time, and the other 5% of the time it loses the signal and the bomb falls way off target. Or like you mentioned, severe mechanical failure may occur 5% of the time. Or the computer on the JDAM might not be able to communicate with the jet 5% of the time.

We just don't have that info to make any conclusions.
You can take these numbers and extrapolate out what the overall accuracy would be without a malfunction. And this is what I stated. JDAMs also have intertial guidance to back them up incase the gps signal goes.
 

Marshallj

Platinum Member
Mar 26, 2003
2,326
0
0
Originally posted by: charrison


You can take these numbers and extrapolate out what the overall accuracy would be without a malfunction. And this is what I stated. JDAMs also have intertial guidance to back them up incase the gps signal goes.

There is not enough data here to extrapolate it. There is too much missing information.
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
Originally posted by: Marshallj
Originally posted by: charrison


You can take these numbers and extrapolate out what the overall accuracy would be without a malfunction. And this is what I stated. JDAMs also have intertial guidance to back them up incase the gps signal goes.

There is not enough data here to extrapolate it. There is too much missing information.
Funny, the certified reliability engineer I work with thought those results would be fairly accurate....
 

MadRat

Lifer
Oct 14, 1999
11,663
44
91
JDAM still requires the bomb to be released fairly accurately else it will otherwise miss. You also have to realize that its unpowered meaning that environmental factors will possibly cause a deviation from its intended trajectory.

Someone earlier mentioned that a ballistic missile had never been intercepted until the Gulf War. The Iraqis do have Crotale SAM systems that have intercepted common iron bombs in the past. Its not impossible that the JDAM bombs could not have been deflected by AAA or a SAM interception. The HMS Avenger proved AAA - its 4.5" naval gun - still has life when it downed an Exocet with a cannon shot during the Falkland Islands War.
 

ndee

Lifer
Jul 18, 2000
12,680
1
0
Originally posted by: etech
Originally posted by: apoppin
Originally posted by: ndee
Originally posted by: Jimbo


Just out of curiosity, what do you consider the MOST reliable new media?
You mean my news resource? You can't deny that propaganda is made on both sides. I just think it's somewhere in between, but not sure where.
I like them ALL . . . well FOX is sensationalism an more entertainment than news - it was more like watching COPS with the commentary of the Coalition forces kicking in doors . . . I listen to the BBC also.

When I say "all', I mean Western sources . . .

And I do not believe the bombs are quite as "precision" as they are made out to be by out millitary. We only see the hits . . . have you ever seen a "miss"? We KNOW there are misses.

And I do believe Saddam bombed his OWN marketplace to get arab sympathy. ;)
There's a reason the Iraqi General in charge of air defense of Baghdad was replaced. A large number of Iraqi AA shells and SAM missiles are being fired out of Baghdad. The chances of the warhead hitting the market place being Iraqi is much higher than it being a US missile. One of the most telling is that if it was a US missile the Iraqi's would have been holding up pieces of it on their TV to show the world. They didn't do that.

The Iraqi's did not precisely fire the rocket into their marketplace, it was most likely a dude SAM that fell back to ground.

ndee. I don't know what point you are trying to make. The convery of 1000 vehicles didn't exist. That was one of those 'fog of war' overblown reports. So the US could not hit it because it did not exist.

OK, I got that. But they would have hit it if they were on their way I guess, right? I was just wondering :)
 

Marshallj

Platinum Member
Mar 26, 2003
2,326
0
0
Originally posted by: charrison
Originally posted by: Marshallj
Originally posted by: charrison


You can take these numbers and extrapolate out what the overall accuracy would be without a malfunction. And this is what I stated. JDAMs also have intertial guidance to back them up incase the gps signal goes.

There is not enough data here to extrapolate it. There is too much missing information.
Funny, the certified reliability engineer I work with thought those results would be fairly accurate....

Is he the designer of the JDAM? If not I don't think he is "certified" to make assumptions on its capabilities. Don't throw qualifications around if they don't apply to the specific subject at hand. People on the internet just love doing that, as if it gives their post more credibility or something.
 

rudder

Lifer
Nov 9, 2000
19,434
84
91
Originally posted by: ndee
Originally posted by: Jmman
In this conflict we have used what, 7000 precision guided weapons like Tomahawks or JDAM's, and how many have not hit their target? 10? You do the math.....:)
What about the one at the market place? no one knows for sure. I was just wondering WHY they didn't bomb them if they knew for sure they were moving.
There is still no inconclusive evidence that the market place bombimng were coalition. from what I've read and heard is that the crater is very shallow possibly indicating that is could have been an errant SAM. I would not put it past the Iraqi regime to bomb the markets repeatedly for propaganda purposes. But really there is no 100% sure way to know until we get into those sites and get forensic evidence.

And the coalition did bomb some smaller convoys on the move out of baghdad. The 1000 vehicle convoy never materialized I suppose.

 

ASK THE COMMUNITY