When is the next gen ATI/AMD Radeon due to hit? Northern Islands?

[dug777]

As of Feb 14th, Anand was suggesting this year (2010 I presume):

http://www.anandtech.com/video/showdoc.aspx?i=3740&p=11

His commentary suggests that we shouldn't draw anything from RV770 or RV870, but I can't imagine that it wouldn't offer a similar intergenerational leap, otherwise what's the point?

 

[yh125d]

Early rumors put it ~October. I think that's a little optimistic, hopefully out for the holidays though

 

[Daedalus685]

But on what node!?

 

[akugami]

Assuming new ATI cards come out this year, it'll be 40nm. Can either ATI or nVidia trust TSMC to put out 32nm trouble free this year? Even if TSMC has 32nm out, ATI and nVidia will only use it on on lower end cards. Basically an experimental trial run.

 

[1h4x4s3x]

GF, 28nm, Q4 '10, Q1 '11.

 

[Daedalus685]

GF, 28nm, Q4 '10, Q1 '11.

[Citation needed]

 

[OCGuy]

Just because a fab has a date to produce a certain node doesnt mean it is ready to go prime-time.

 

[RussianSensation]

Considering NV is just launching their new cards now, and ATI not even having released its refresh product, my guess is Q1, 2011.

ATI likes to play it safe and releases a mid to low end card with a lower node process to test out the waters first (i.e., 4770 on 40nm before 40nm HD5000 series). I would imagine we would have to see another card on the smaller node process before we see next generation HD6000 beyond 40nm (unless ATI intends to keep to 40nm for their next card which is still possible but unlikely).

 

[1h4x4s3x]

Just because a fab has a date to produce a certain node doesnt mean it is ready to go prime-time.

Q3 is risk production AFAIK.

[Citation needed]

I am just speculating like everyone else based on all the rumours I've read.
If I'm right though, I demand hundreds, nay thousand of cookies.

 

[lifeblood]

I expect to see a 32nm video card (low or middle class) from Global Foundries Q4 10 or Q1 11. Since Llano will be at 32nm and include a Evergreen equivilent GPU I suspect they will also put out a discreet GPU with those specs.

However, that depends on capacity. If they are putting out CPU's (or should I say APU"s) as fast as they can make them then they may have to stick with TSMC for all discreet GPU needs.

It should be fun seeing how it turns out.

 

[happy medium]

Last I heard they were skipping 32nm and going straight to 28nm?

 

[Soleron]

Offcially, there is a complete lineup refresh in H2 '10 (Was in their last earnings call). Linking with the comment in the RV870 Story that NI is due out later this year, it must be that.

It's not 32nm because neither TSMC or GF have a bulk 32nm process and it was confirmed in a recent interview that the next GPUs won't be on SOI. So it could be 40nm or 28nm. Charlie at SA says it's 28nm and the foundry is 'set', but he's not saying whether TSMC or GF. Either is possible since Llano will come out on GF late this year or early next year.

But that doesn't exclude a mid-cycle refresh (like 3870 was to 2900XT or 4890/4770 was to 4870). If it exists, that should come out fairly soon given the 5870 was last September.

So, soon? Ideally a '5890' around the 26th of March, but who knows?

 

[nyker96]

I expect to see a 32nm video card (low or middle class) from Global Foundries Q4 10 or Q1 11. Since Llano will be at 32nm and include a Evergreen equivilent GPU I suspect they will also put out a discreet GPU with those specs.

However, that depends on capacity. If they are putting out CPU's (or should I say APU"s) as fast as they can make them then they may have to stick with TSMC for all discreet GPU needs.

It should be fun seeing how it turns out.

I think I read somewhere that the 32nm process for making cpu is different than 32nm process for making gpu. so for them to have a process tuned for cpu might not necessarily guarantee their 32nm process can be available for making GPUs. Otherwise they'd using their 45nm capacities to make GPUs.

 

[lifeblood]

I think I read somewhere that the 32nm process for making cpu is different than 32nm process for making gpu. so for them to have a process tuned for cpu might not necessarily guarantee their 32nm process can be available for making GPUs. Otherwise they'd using their 45nm capacities to make GPUs.

I would agree except they are (technically) going to make GPU's at 32nm; the integrated GPU with Llano.

However, the more I think about it the more I suspect we will not see a discreet 32nm GPU from GF. As you said, the SOI process for CPU's is different than for a GPU. They need to have the production capacity, they need to have the engineers, money, etc.

I guess I won't be surprised if I do see a 32nm SOI GPU, and I won't be surprised if I don't see one. :\

 

[Soleron]

It's official that it's not SOI. And neither TSMC nor GF do bulk 32nm. 32nm is out.

"When you are saying that it's different type of manufacturing, that it's a bulk process, on the CPU side that is completely different, what will you do about GPU side? Will you still use the bulk technology, or you will somehow merge it with SOI technology?

SN: Well that's not feasible, there's only one way because it's a single die, it's a single chip. Discrete equivalent of the DX11 GPU will continue to be produced in bulk technology. We're not moving the discrete GPUs to SOI. (Emphasis mine) But for Llano, it's a single integrated die so that GPU is being produced on the SOI process.

http://www.insidehw.com/Editorials/...First-Accelerated-Processing-Unit/Page-3.html

 

[Janooo]

One AMD GPU based on GF 28nm process is already out:

http://danielnenni.com/2010/01/17/tsmc-versus-global-foundries-part-ii/

The middle one:

 

[veri745]

It'll be GF 28nm. I've heard TSMC 32nm is hosed.

 

[tviceman]

As far as anyone knows, the only reported info on Northern Islands is that it will still be on 40nm. ATI has lots of experiencing designing around this node, but going with the same process for their next gen part is going to go against their "small die strategy" since they went from 256 mm^2 @ 55nm to 334 mm^2 @ 40nm.

Should be interesting.

 

[Daedalus685]

One AMD GPU based on GF 28nm process is already out:

http://danielnenni.com/2010/01/17/tsmc-versus-global-foundries-part-ii/

The middle one:

I saw that earlier, folks at S|A don't seem sold that it is legit though.. We will see.

Frankly I do not expect NI until the new node is ready. At least not the high end parts. I'm not sure what kind of improvements they can squeeze out of a new arch but in order to stick with a relatively small GPU die size could they really offer much better performance/area (enough to warrant a new series) without a shrink?

Thus I'm betting on a 5790 (for lack of a better name) at 28nm at some point followed by the 6000 a few months later (Q1 11 or so). But hey, if they can get NI to be better, more scalable, etc. we might see it at 40nm first. But if folks were upset with the 5870 performance over the 4870 this time around I can only sigh at the posts regarding how 'feature support doesn't matter we want more raw power' if the 6870 does not come with a a shrink.

 

[Daedalus685]

As far as anyone knows, the only reported info on Northern Islands is that it will still be on 40nm. ATI has lots of experiencing designing around this node, but going with the same process for their next gen part is going to go against their "small die strategy" since they went from 256 mm^2 @ 55nm to 334 mm^2 @ 40nm.

Should be interesting.

As far as I know the original info was for it to be at 32nm or less. There was an article floating around, not sure where at this moment, stating that the next release would be at 40nm. However, didn't that turn out to be referring to the refresh of the 5000 series?

 

[DanielNenni]

But on what node!?

AMD/ATI 28nm GPUs will come from both TSMC and GlobalFoundries. There will be no 32nm. The GPU guys usually single source manufacturing due to the complexity but GlobalFoundries spun out of AMD so there is a very close technical and financial relationship. Rumor has it AMD will get wafers for cost from GlobalFoundries but due to the 40nm shortage experience they will second source to TSMC.

And don't believe all of the 40nm yield rumors, innuendos, and finger pointing from the other forums, there is a lot more to it.

And this is what the NVidia chip looks like before it goes to manufacture:

removed

Cheers,

D.A.N.

Daniel, you cannot register just to promote your blog. It's against forum rules. I have removed your link here, and in the other post you've made since joining.
Please refrain from spamming this forum to get traffic to your blog.

Anandtech Moderator - Keysplayr

 

[sciwizam]

Nothing new, other than what we already know.

Link (posted yesterday)

According to Donanimhaber.com, AMD is working on 2nd generation DX11 line-up and it will be based on completly new GPU architecture. Donanim Haber also underlines that, next-gen cards will be launched in 2nd half of this year as Dirk Meyer (AMD' CEO) said before. Still there is no official infos about the technical details of new architecture but some people speculates that new design supports MIMD desing approach.

Donanimhaber.com

 

[T2k]

Almost 100% sure it's going to be 40nm unless some magic happens outside TSMC - ATI had learn its lessons about introducing new architectures on new processes (see R520 on 90nm and chasing bug for almost a year.)

 

[1h4x4s3x]

http://dnenni.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/globalfoundries_28nm_32nm_6.jpg?w=600&h=413

Guess who's reflection that is. ()

I still think it's going to be Q1 '11. A refresh may happen along the line in 40nm.

 

[cbn]

Does anyone think ATI may try to release a RV870 derivative on 28nm first? (Just to test the waters)