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When do you think the RC5 project will be done?

Seeing that RC5-64 is now 35% complete, then statistically, we have a 50% chance of completing before we complete the next 15%.

Statistics are a tough thing, though. Las Vegas has made a fortune from statistics.

Other than that, there is already another contest and it is running. That is OGR. But, if you are doing RC5 now, keep doing it. I don't want to take anybody away from an existing contest, especially one so hard fought.
 
Before OGR started, I calculated that at the current cracking rate, it would take 3 years to exhaust the keyspace. If you factored in the growth rate, the time to exhaust the keyspace was about 2 years.

That was several months ago, and before OGR started, when I get a chance I will caluculate updated numbers.

Like Jon said, It is impossible to tell how long it will take to find the key. Exhausting the keyspace is the worst-case scenario.
 
I'm thinking 2 years at the most. We've allready completed 25% of the keyspace in 1.5 years, and the rate increases constantly. We should be somewhere near 70% at least in the next 2 years.
 
I have a hunch that at 37.32% through the keyspace, the winning key will be located. (Yes it is a completely random number but than you did specify the title of the thread 😛)
 
I always think the next key I crack is going to be it, but so far I've been wrong 400,000+ times. In a row. 🙂
 
Hmm, best estimates? My guess is 214 days 😉. Couting growth, that should put us somewhere between the 50%-60% range of the keyspace. Since I believe that we are cracking in a pseudorandom fashion, that range should find the key.
 
My SWAG is August 2, 2001!


Actually JonB, when the contest started we had a 50% chance of completing it when the keyspace was 50% exhausted. Now that we have completed 35% of the keyspace, we have a 50% chance of completing it when the keyspace is 67.5% exhausted. 67.5 = 35 +.5*(100-35)

ScienceWhiz, the current 14 day average is 43,471,877 WU's/day. Without allowing for growth, it will take 1022.5 days to exhaust the keyspace. Allowing for a growth rate similar to what we have experienced already, it should take 507.4 days to exhaust the keyspace.
 
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