When are the 10 ghz cpu's gonna be here?

[GmanBat]

A friend asked me when the 10 ghz. cpu's of legend will show up. Anybody have a prediction? I would like to impress him with my insight even if it is second-hand.

 

[Lonyo]

Under 3 years if Moore remains correct. 2.5 --> 5 --> 10
18 months for each step, so 36 months from 2.5 --> 10, we had 2.5 a bit ago, so 36 months from when we got 2.5ghz cpu's (assuming nothing changes drastically, which it might as technology develops and reaches limitations, such as manufacturing processes being to small to work with, or new ways of doing things are discovered)

 

[PuppettMaster001]

I'd say 2005/2006. Just a guess though.

 

[microAmp]

Originally posted by: Lonyo
Under 3 years if Moore remains correct. 2.5 --> 5 --> 10
18 months for each step, so 36 months from 2.5 --> 10, we had 2.5 a bit ago, so 36 months from when we got 2.5ghz cpu's (assuming nothing changes drastically, which it might as technology develops and reaches limitations, such as manufacturing processes being to small to work with, or new ways of doing things are discovered)

Moore's Law doesn't refect MHz rating, even though it has been on pace with Moore's Law.

Some good graphs:
1994-2002
AMD/Intel 94-02
Where I found this.

Moore's Law

 

[bonfire89]

crap, 10ghz. is that a nice thought or what!

 

[MacDude]

motoamd is right: Moore's law says that the size of a transistor is reduced in half about every 18 months. As a consequence of having smaller transistors the clock speed can be increased. I would say if Moore's law doesn't end, we'll see 10Ghz in 2005/2006. Transistors are getting so small now days that many people think that this crazy pace will end soon when transistors cannot be shrinked anymore (essentially you would only have a few molecules left).

I allready think 3Ghz is crazy. 10Ghz, that's insane!

 

[littlegohan]

Well, just think about quantum computers that are billion times faster than today's super computer


quantum computer is defitnetly not science fiction

 

[TimeKeeper]

10Ghz w/ 32bit application? Isn't it pretty much useless?

 

[mcveigh]

yeah but what over clock can I get on it?:Q

 

[IamDavid]

Why do we need a 10GHz CPU.. They would only give software designers a reason not to develop better code.. Can anyone imagine what Real Player will be like when the processors are that fast. Or MS Office

 

[thedan]

Originally posted by: IamDavid
Why do we need a 10GHz CPU.. They would only give software designers a reason not to develop better code.. Can anyone imagine what Real Player will be like when the processors are that fast. Or MS Office

Probably coded by monkeys with typewriters... wait (remembers microsoft).

 

[cmdrdredd]

I think that before we see 10Ghz there will be a CPU breakthrough that will make Mhz mean nothing. I'm not talking about the argument of RISC being more powerful per clock or anything, but an entirely new chip design. Something that could only be dreamed of. I think it won't be too far off from the chip in Terminator 2. Not something that cheezy though...no AI, but something as revolutionary.

 

[CrazySaint]

Originally posted by: cmdrdredd
I think that before we see 10Ghz there will be a CPU breakthrough that will make Mhz mean nothing. I'm not talking about the argument of RISC being more powerful per clock or anything, but an entirely new chip design. Something that could only be dreamed of. I think it won't be too far off from the chip in Terminator 2. Not something that cheezy though...no AI, but something as revolutionary.

That may happen, but I'm pretty certain that even if it happens before we reach 10GHz CPUs, the average consumer will see 10GHz CPUs before they see this revolutionary new chip design, in whatever shape it may take.

 

[cmdrdredd]

Could be, but as someone said before the chips keep getting smaller and may becme too tough to work with the size.

It's all speculation, but I'm leaning towards a radical new breakthrough for all technology driven industries be it Television, Music, or Computers.

 

[Varun]

Tell your friend there are 10GHz CPU's today!!

Did no one else read this article?

10GHz Air Cooled today!

It's going to be a while before they are consumer products, I'm with the others who say 2005-2006, though speeds are increasing rapidly as of late (compitition is great for all)

 

[imgod2u]

Intel predicted the P7 core to go to 10 GHz. With the Teja core expected to have IA-64 support and Intel planning on moving IA-64 down to the desktop level sometime in 2005/2006, I would guess that's when the P7 core will reach its original goal and die off while the newer IA-64 designs come in to play. What most likely will happen is there won't be a gradual jump in clockrate like 2.5 then 2.6 then 2.7. What will probably happen is that Intel will continue to "double-pump" more components in its MPU design. The simple ALU's right now are already double-pumped. Rumors are that in Prescott, the AGU's and L1 caches (and possibly trace cache) will be double-pumped as well. This means that in a 4 GHz Prescott, a great part of the chip is running at 8 GHz. As Intel double-pumps more and more parts of the chip, it'll get to the point where since 80% of the chip runs at a certain clockrate, they'll start labeling the chip at that clockrate.
Of course, that's just a wild guess. I'm guessing the biggest hold-hack would be the decoding unit(s) and the FPU's. Both of which take up a lot of die space and transistors and involve quite a lot of work that could very easily create critical paths.