First off, your assumption is that I don't play sims, rpgs, or wargames. I've got a logitech force feedback joystick, I like space sims (not so many regular plane sims), and I also like RPGs. I've got a level 67 master in Dungeon Siege. I've got 3 level 50+ characters in Everquest. I have avatars in several muds (Realms of Despair, Gargoyles Tower). I have the Ultima collectors edition. I had a lumberjack GM in UO and owned a house. I just beat Wizardry 8 and also played some of the very first ones as a child on my dad's 286. I got pretty damn far in Moria as a kid (want to bring up first generation PC games?). I beat BG1, BG1 Exp, BG2, BG for PS2 and have my char saved to a backup directory for importing in to NeverWinter Night. I beat stonekeep. I still have my quest for glory character saved to a floppy disk from the old QfG games. Did I mention I like RPGs? Well, you get the point.
"Unfortunately they are now the exception because of the dumbing down of PC games over the last decade."
I don't think games are dumbing down because of the "nintendo kiddies" or any other lame factor. I think games are dumbing down because the focus has shifted. Where you once had a poorly graphical single player game that relied largly on its plot / depth / character developement you now have vast multiplayer worlds with amazing graphics that no longer rely on those things. Game developers choose to focus more on these multiplayer worlds because character interaction is much more powerful in a real operating world. This focus has already started to end though, as games are shifting back towards strong singleplayer plots / etc. Morrowind will prove that comment.
"Publishers may not have the option to deliver larger form-factors. It may not be their decision."
Then that would change my view. My view is based on the fact that if a game really requires a 900 page manual then it can add one.
"My major gripe is that the small box size will eventually devolve into the even smaller DVD case format. Games will cost the same, no savings will be passed onto us."
I would PAY MORE for the convience of having my games in a DVD case. Frankly, I tire of throwing all that crap away and then emptying my trashcan.
And if I was going to point to an RPG that required a book more than anything, I would say Everquest. Nobody uses a manual in Everquest because they rely on each other, as a community, to figure things out. Everquest also has a decent /help feature and an ingame tutorial to help you with understanding things. But as a multiplayer world with many commands added all the time, tons of maps, and huge websites dedicated to the documenting of the game I think it would easily take the cake.