What will be the last PC you ever buy?

[HDTVMan]

In the next year or two you will be able to buy Quad Core CPU's.
Possible Terrabyte Hard Drives.
Possible 100GB DVD Media.
Possible dual Core GPU's. Probably in SLI or more making quad graphics of today.
Physics Processors.
Applications written and compiled to be multi CPU and Cores.

Games are nearing Photo Realistic levels now but take several years to develop.
Sony even demonstrated using 2D maps to make realistic terrains for games and that is next year.

So in 2 years you could possibly build FOR HOME if you have the cash.
A Dual-Quad Core Machine. (8 CPU POWER)
Terrabytes Hard Drive storage even in small form factor.
100Gb HD DVD Burners. Imagine how many divx movies that would hold? Sweet.
SLI or More video card combo with each card containing Multiple GPU's. (Lets Say 8 GPU Power of today) ATI has hinted at being able to use more than 2 video cards.
Physics processors in the mix somewhere or integrated onto the video boards.
HD Dvd decoding is in ATI's next card so in 2 years is will be that UXHD level.

Now this should be able to render Jurrasic Park in real time and were only about 2 years away from that. At that point where do you go? Even if this takes 3 years. After that what is the incentive to upgrade any more? At that point should actors be worried they could be replaced by Machinima? I misspelled that didnt I? Just download a script for your favorite game like halo 5 and let the game act out a movie? Certainly grandma wont ever need a faster computer for Chat and AOL. What happens to render farms? Im guessing a splurge of Independent films will rise and movie studios will be hurting.

Just looking for everyones opinion of the future 2-3 years from now. You know when Duke Nukem finally goes Alpha. What will we be doing with our PC's? I hope more than waiting for games which will probably take 5 years to develop. I would also imagine companies would sell realistic models of charachters and animals for a fee to save development time? Will it still be sold with a floppy or IBM still release drivers of Floppy?

 

[dug777]

i'm confused

Yes i will buy many, many more PCs....

 

[HDTVMan]

The question really boils down to once games are photorealistic and rendered in real time without any lag. Where do you go from there? What do you see yourself doing with your PC after that?

 

[theMan]

they will have monitor devices in the sort of near future capable of making 3d hologram like images. that will be insane. also, there will be like, complete virtual reality stuff, so you are actually in the game. it will be like the matrix!!!

EDIT: also, there is always new things. back in the day, i mean, 1000 years ago, they couldnt even imagine there was such thing as zero. then, i remember i guy a long time ago, i think in 1992 or something, i forgot, wrote this huge article on how it isnt possible to make a HD larger than 20gb. they willl always come up with something

 

[HDTVMan]

I have a buddy who thought that too. That will replace the monitor/tv but I would believe the power to render that will be here shortly if not already here since that falls along one of the axis's that the hologram device could pick up on from the video card. Just need to make the hologram device. Im thinking that PC power will finally exceed and that software will be substantially behind the technology. Were sort of seeing the beginning of that now with games that finally start to take advantage of what is built into the video cards a year or two ago. With muti CPU were really getting into supercomputing power and heck thats earth simlator territory. I dont need earth simulator for Unreal 5 or do I?

But cool idea on the hologram keep em coming.

 

[dug777]

ok.

my guess is that won't ever fully happen (because it's impossble when you think about it really), but to get even close to that stage will take us quite a few years more yet i suspect

 

[TankGuys]

Just remember that not so long ago, people were saying:

"Soon you'll be able to buy 100Mhz processors"
"Soon you'll have access to 250Mb hard drives"
"We'll have video cards that support 32 bit and have 4Mb RAM"
"We'll have 128Mb of system memory"
...

The uses and applications tend to utilize whatever hardware is available. So while those specs you quoted seem unreal and way more than we'll ever need, in 3 years you'll be complaining about that comptuer and how it's time for an upgrade. That's just the nature of the business.

 

[HDTVMan]

I recall them but what goes beyond reality other than hologram? Where do graphics go when reality is rendered in realtime?

If we can expect unreal 3 late 2005 games to appear.
http://www.unrealtechnology.com/html/technology/ue30.shtml

What can we expect from Direct X 10 and Unreal 4 like engines In about 2-3 years?

Weve moved away from 200-300mghz upgrades to CPU multiplication. Thats nearly 3Ghz jumps and theroretical doubles every time you add a CPU core. Were quadrupling our processor power potential Q1 of 2006. This is substantially more than a 300mhz update to a single core cpu. Its like going from a 3ghz processor to a 12Ghz processor. Thats just the beginning of next year. That of course providing the applications are written for multi. Which in 2006 should be the case. Not only are we moving to 64bit but to Multithreaded.

Were also mutiplying video card ability when you take that next gen video cards in 6 days are supposed to be double the performance of today. Make it SLI and its potentially 4 times more than todays single card solution. If video card technology/ability doubles every 12-18 months in 3 years were talking something like 16x the potential of todays single card solution.

In 2-3 years we will also be on 45nm and talking possibly about 4.5Ghz (4.5 Obviously speculative) AMD/Intel Quad core cpu's. Not only a potential 50% clock but 4 times more processing power. Were not even sure what 65nm is capable of. if intel can get to 3.8 now without overclock what kind of moster with 45nm make and it getting to be multi cpu.

Keep in mind they may still solve current leakage and we may see the Mhz/Ghz wars rise again. It was also a quote some time ago that no one would solve getting modems above 2400 baud but the next step was 9600 buy going with a more parallel approach. Were doing the same with the CPU and GPU.

 

[TankGuys]

Originally posted by: HDTVMan
I recall them but what goes beyond reality other than hologram? Where do graphics go when reality is rendered in realtime?

If we can expect unreal 3 late 2005 games to appear.
http://www.unrealtechnology.com/html/technology/ue30.shtml

What can we expect from Direct X 10 and Unreal 4 like engines In about 2-3 years?

Weve moved away from 200-300mghz upgrades to CPU multiplication. Thats nearly 3Ghz jumps and theroretical doubles every time you add a CPU core. Were quadrupling our processor power potential Q1 of 2006. This is substantially more than a 300mhz update to a single core cpu. Its like going from a 3ghz processor to a 12Ghz processor. Thats just the beginning of next year. That of course providing the applications are written for multi. Which in 2006 should be the case. Not only are we moving to 64bit but to Multithreaded.

Were also mutiplying video card ability when you take that next gen video cards in 6 days are supposed to be double the performance of today. Make it SLI and its potentially 4 times more than todays single card solution. If video card technology/ability doubles every 12-18 months in 3 years were talking something like 16x the potential of todays single card solution.

In 2-3 years we will also be on 45nm and talking possibly about 4.5Ghz (4.5 Obviously speculative) AMD/Intel Quad core cpu's. Not only a potential 50% clock but 4 times more processing power. Were not even sure what 65nm is capable of. if intel can get to 3.8 now without overclock what kind of moster with 45nm make and it getting to be multi cpu.

Keep in mind they may still solve current leakage and we may see the Mhz/Ghz wars rise again. It was also a quote some time ago that no one would solve getting modems above 2400 baud but the next step was 9600 buy going with a more parallel approach. Were doing the same with the CPU and GPU.

All these are excellent points, but again, they are just modern versions of an oft repeated set of questions.

There is probobaly a theoretical limit to how much comptuer power we can actually use, but that's a long, long way off. Trust me, software companies and such will find a way to use whatever hardware is thrown thier way, and they will continue to do so for many years to come.

 

[HDTVMan]

I agree with you TankGuys. Im just curious to see others ideas of what the future holds several years from now will be like for the PC. 2006 is going to be an interesting year redefining the PC.

 

[Jeff7181]

Of course not. It might be the last 32-bit PC I ever buy though.

 

[peleejosh]

when I can have a holodeck in my house, I will stop buying PCs.

 

[HDTVMan]

Originally posted by: peleejosh
when I can have a holodeck in my house, I will stop buying PCs.

I think thats up to the monitor manufacturers not the pc industry. But I am with you on that. Load up Virtual Girl 10 and well lets just leave it at that.

Im betting divorce will be up something like a thousand fold when that happens. The Porn industry will capilize on that one. Boy the court cases where they call it cheating even though the girl is virtual? There is a line there I dont want to cross. Hey honey whats this purchase on your credit card?

 

[imported_michaelpatrick33]

Originally posted by: peleejosh
when I can have a holodeck in my house, I will stop buying PCs.

Yeah, but then there will be the Holodeck 2000, then the Holodeck 3000, then the Holodeck 4000 etc. LOL

All with new features and upgrades. More realisitic women, better safety controls.

Could you imagine a Microsoft Holodeck OS.

Gives new meaning to the BSOD. LOL

 

[Jeff7181]

Originally posted by: michaelpatrick33

Originally posted by: peleejosh
when I can have a holodeck in my house, I will stop buying PCs.

Yeah, but then there will be the Holodeck 2000, then the Holodeck 3000, then the Holodeck 4000 etc. LOL

All with new features and upgrades. More realisitic women, better safety controls.

Could you imagine a Microsoft Holodeck OS.

Gives new meaning to the BSOD. LOL

The girl would have a penis.

 

[HDTVMan]

Originally posted by: michaelpatrick33

Originally posted by: peleejosh
when I can have a holodeck in my house, I will stop buying PCs.

Yeah, but then there will be the Holodeck 2000, then the Holodeck 3000, then the Holodeck 4000 etc. LOL

All with new features and upgrades. More realisitic women, better safety controls.

Could you imagine a Microsoft Holodeck OS.

Gives new meaning to the BSOD. LOL

Think of the viruses hitting you in the middle of the holodeck.

Oh No I got Code Red Herpes.

 

[imported_michaelpatrick33]

Originally posted by: HDTVMan

Originally posted by: michaelpatrick33

Originally posted by: peleejosh
when I can have a holodeck in my house, I will stop buying PCs.

Yeah, but then there will be the Holodeck 2000, then the Holodeck 3000, then the Holodeck 4000 etc. LOL

All with new features and upgrades. More realisitic women, better safety controls.

Could you imagine a Microsoft Holodeck OS.

Gives new meaning to the BSOD. LOL

Think of the viruses hitting you in the middle of the holodeck.

Oh No I got Code Red Herpes.

LOL. Great post. :laugh:

 

[theMan]

ROFLMAO! LOL!

the holodeck OS would be sweet. you could be running around, and opening doors for the programs you want to enter. that would kick as$.

 

[Jeff7181]

Originally posted by: theman
ROFLMAO! LOL!

the holodeck OS would be sweet. you could be running around, and opening doors for the programs you want to enter. that would kick as$.

And if the OS was made by Microsoft the door would slam on you before you walked in, and the door would have holes in it. And the door would come with a bunch of accessories you don't need... like a door knocker, a peep hole, a doorbell, and a doorman who doesn't do his job.

 

[HDTVMan]

Originally posted by: Jeff7181

Originally posted by: theman
ROFLMAO! LOL!

the holodeck OS would be sweet. you could be running around, and opening doors for the programs you want to enter. that would kick as$.

And if the OS was made by Microsoft the door would slam on you before you walked in, and the door would have holes in it. And the door would come with a bunch of accessories you don't need... like a door knocker, a peep hole, a doorbell, and a doorman who doesn't do his job.

Good I could kick that stupid puppy from Microsoft Office!

 

[biostud]

Originally posted by: HDTVMan
The question really boils down to once games are photorealistic and rendered in real time without any lag. Where do you go from there? What do you see yourself doing with your PC after that?

Then they make it Unreal

 

[bunnyfubbles]

Originally posted by: HDTVMan
The question really boils down to once games are photorealistic and rendered in real time without any lag. Where do you go from there? What do you see yourself doing with your PC after that?

Because that is obviously not the limit of needs for a computer. Take a look at Blue Gene/L. Currently at 135.3 teraflops (135.3 trillion calculations per second) and they're going to double it soon. Upgrading to 270 teraflops. And what are such supercomputers used for? Simulations! And last I checked, games are simulations. Photorealism only makes the game look real, except when it counts. Personal computers that could do 270 teraflops could accurately simulate dynamic environments. Say you're in a flying air craft that is hit by a missile. The ship would realistically be blown apart. Let's also say you chances of surviving the hit are high (because its a game and you're some sort of superhuman with a special combat suit) you then realistically fall through the atmosphere - the game is accurately simulating atmospheric friction and other such conditions. The game isn't being told how to tell you how the experience should be, its actually showing you how the experience would be in realistic situations (should the aircraft, missile hit, atmosphere, superhuman/suit conditions also be reproducible in real life).

With such computers readily at our dispense, we?d no longer need to run real car races, we could simulate them with drivers racing in special simulation modules - it?d be cheaper and less dangerous as well.

Looks like the Wachowski brothers got it right well at least we probably won?t be enslaved by AI, we?ll probably do it to ourselves, replacing our own lives with artificial ones. Heck, its already borderline sick how much people have replaced their own lives with games like WoW, and that game is NOTHING compared to what the future could bring.

 

[fishbits]

What will be the last PC you ever buy?

The one you pry from my cold, dead hands.

The question really boils down to once games are photorealistic and rendered in real time without any lag. Where do you go from there?

Movies were photorealisic and in real time without any lag for many many decades. Notice any advancements? I have. There'll be more to come.

Besides, we'll have to keep buying exponentially more powerful computers with bigger storage just to run each next release of Office adequately.

Sorry, can't imagine us exhausting the need/desire for more computing power in the foreseeable future.

 

[HDTVMan]

Thats a good analogy bunnyfubbles.

I think at some point though people wont see the need to updgrade any more. Especially when its something like upgrade now and your games can now do real time sub atomic equations. At some point the level of detail reaches a limit where human perception no longer cares or cannot go any further or deeper. We have to seperate ourselves from the perception that others do what we do. Were pioneers because our games drives our PC's.

PC sales will eventually die down dramatically in the near future as most people dont have a need for faster more powerfull computers. The average person does e-mail, surfs the web, and at most edits his home movies. When we get to multi core cpu's and 64bit these users will have a pc way beyond whats needed for any application.

But of course Its possible that one day we will all have this discussion on upgrading to 128bit computers because of something we dont see today that will be the revolution 3 years from now.

 

[Rudee]

Originally posted by: HDTVMan
The question really boils down to once games are photorealistic and rendered in real time without any lag. Where do you go from there?

I will take realistic AI over realistic graphics any day.