What, When and How--The end of the PC

[andyfasthands]

Discuss the field of technological advances that will lead to the end of the personal computer. What sparks my interest is this quote from a college textbook about Sun Microsystems and President Scott McNealy:

Undeterred, McNealy stays convinced of his mission, which is no less than to overthrow the personal computer. "The PC is just a blip. Its a big, bright blip," Says McNealy. "Fifty years from now, people are going to look back and say: 'Did you really have a computer on your desk? How weird.'" (6) Analyst C.B. Lee of Sutro and Company and a former Sun manager argues that "McNealy shoots off his mouth too much. At some point, you've gotta be more mature." (7) (Schermerhorn, Management, Seventh Edition)

 

[rjain]

miniaturization and cheapness of components
different user interface hardware for different uses
wireless communication mechanisms
IPv6

 

[andyfasthands]

Where will these components be, if not in the home? This is odd to me. Will we be accessing from monitors connected to a Sun network server, with Sun-type applications, as they see it? Where will their competitors such as Intel and Microsoft be in all of this?

 

[rjain]

They'll be in your home, your office, your pocket, your briefcase, your car, your streets, your shops... and maybe even your body.

You'll be accessing them from the usage-specific interface for each of those devices. Maybe from a personal information center (a.k.a. PC), even. We still have mainframes after all, we just call them grid computers or clusters these days, because the wiring is arranged differently.

Companies are irrelevant. They can be bought out, spun off, liquidated, merged, and started all we want. What matters is the technology and what it does.

 

[andyfasthands]

What's IPv6? Internet protocol version 6?

The reason I introduced companies into the question is because they decide "when" to introduce technologies to the market. Knowing a corporation's marketing strategies would suggest proprietary or free-source applications and such. How a technology's foundation is plotted and presented determines a number of time factor questions. In order to attain such a wide network, we would then be dependent on free-source applications, in my opinion.

When and what specific advancements do you foresee to the end of the PC?

 

[rocketmanx]

Agree with rjain- in the body.

If nanotech flies then we may see nano circuitry implanted in your head to take over for a computer. Imagine a computer in your head that works in line with your own brain, assisting with math and things like to do lists etc.... never forget anything again
The smarter we get the dumber we get

 

[andyfasthands]

interesting post, rocketmanx and welcome to the forum

 

[rjain]

The human brain is good at detecting subtle, complex patterns based on observations of similar systems in the past. Basic math is not at all subtle or complex. Why not let the computer take care of that?

IPv6 is Internet protocol version 6.

Open source is not open standards. Both are completely separate issues. You can have open source software use a proprietary standard and keep changing it so often that no one wants to take the effort of keeping up with it. You can have proprietary software that uses an open standard (e.g. IP works on Windows, Mac, Linux, Solaris, HP/UX, AIX, A/UX, Genera, VMS, ...) that is well-defined and everyone can communicate with everyone else.

The existence of non-PC devices doesn't remove the PC from existence, just as the PC didn't remove the mainframe from existence. It just changed the role or even the way that the old systems were constructed. These days you have mainframes that are constructed using the same or similar parts that are used to construct PCs. It's just the interconnect and the OS and the reliability of the parts that makes it a mainframe. Compare IBM's S/390 to Apple's G5. The CPU cores are almost identical, but the machine you get in the end is vastly different. And then look at the supercomputer being made of G5s and you come full circle, in a way (for some computing tasks).

 

[glugglug]

IPv6 = new address format - IP addresses that are 6 bytes instead of 4. Back in 1996 people were saying that we would be running out of IP addresses and the internet would need to be fully switched over to IPv6 by 2000. (Think about it.... 32 bit address means less than 1 IP per person in the world, and every nic needs an ip, including the ones in servers & routers, etc.

Businesses and colleges moving behind NATs for security reasons, as well as for cost reduction reasons (buying a class B for a college when they started putting internet in dorms instead of just having a couple class C's is expensive). This greatly slowed down the need to change address format.

The actions of big brother should ultimately keep people from accepting Scott McNealy's idea.

 

[rjain]

IIRC, IPv6 has 6 sections of 2 bytes each.

you don't need NAT for any security reasons. just deny incoming connections, allowing in the same cases you would port forward with NAT. NAT only works well with simple TCP-based protocols. Anything that uses multiple connections going in both directions with TCP or anything that uses UDP requires special handling. Anything that uses neither probably won't work. This prevents people from using more network-efficient protocols for their communications, wasing bandwidth.

IPv6 blocks are free. Cheaper than even a SINGLE IPv4 /24.

Cellphones and PDAs are tools of Big Brother?

 

[glugglug]

Originally posted by: rjain
Cellphones and PDAs are tools of Big Brother?

I was referring to the idea of noone having a computer on their desk, everyone just using dumb terminals to connect to a remote computer, i.e. a computer controlled by someone else, who can log your every move.

 

[Mday]

the PC is a box that sits at your desk.

the end of hte PC is having a central server which has kiosks all over the place. remember that a pc is a computer, but a computer is not necessarily a pc.

imo, the pc as we know it will become an appliance, but the pc itself will still exist.

 

[GoHAnSoN]

Originally posted by: Mday
the PC is a box that sits at your desk.

the end of hte PC is having a central server which has kiosks all over the place. remember that a pc is a computer, but a computer is not necessarily a pc.

imo, the pc as we know it will become an appliance, but the pc itself will still exist.

ya, kinda agree, imagine having a central server, we just need to have a small handy handheld screen and a pen to do whatever we want anywhere in the world.

EDIT: well, maybe not even pen, we might just need to carry a small display screen and we can command what we want. we just need to carry the display around, no keys, wallet etc etc are needed anymore.

 

[andyfasthands]

Personally, I think law has to catch up to the internet before any network like this could be conceivable. Privacy, security and so many other things are entirely different in cyberspace. The constitution as we know it will not fit for our post-modern future..

 

[Mavrick]

The pc as it is right now might end soon if connectivity solution get cheaper fast. But instead of having a mega sun mainframe from which you could run softwares and files, I see it as small home networks.

For example, at home, you have one main computer, but with 2 or 3 terminals. The computer is in fact your personnal server. When you go out and need to have access to your files, you could just log on another server using a terminal, and access you own server using the internet. So, with that, it would be possible to access your computer from anywhere.

It already works with win XP remote desktop, but it would need to have much faster connections to work perfectly.

 

[Cogman]

PC will never die. not unless there is a nuclear Holocast that removes our abilities to make computers. Remember the PC stands for Personal Computer. People will always have a desire for one of their own, the form may change (One Computer hosting diffrent stations) but I think that people will always have a want for a PC at home. Also, I'm not so sure that bio-hardware will ever fly too far. We have too many Matrix like movies as is that predict the end of man kind by robots that become to smart as it is. Granted that younger generations might adopt it quick, I just dont think it is something that we can get ready for. It would be cool though, FPS games would redirect all nervous control to the computer and the person would sit blissfully not moving except for breathing and other essencial functions. But what if there is a virus? litterally just killing people by stopping those vital functions. Or what if a program crashes while it has control over your nervous impulses, you would be in a comma, and who knows what would happen if you shut it down. Just a few resions It might not be such a good Idea. Heck if people get it bionic, an EM weapon could be even more of a threat then it is now. People need to evolve before biointegration can.

 

[andyfasthands]

Originally posted by: Cogman
PC will never die. not unless there is a nuclear Holocast that removes our abilities to make computers. Remember the PC stands for Personal Computer. People will always have a desire for one of their own, the form may change (One Computer hosting diffrent stations) but I think that people will always have a want for a PC at home.

I highly agree with the capitalist desire for one's own PC and plus it makes things so much easier.
Centralized systems are very complicated and if each person had their individual interest in the network, it would make maintenance so much easier. Kiosks, public computers, library terminals, etc. are all available now, and I can see those PC-sized computers being consolidated into a single server, but not the home PC. I like the idea of a personal server.

 

[Shalmanese]

He's not talking about consolidating PC's back into mainframe technology, hes saying that the PC will eventually be as obsolete as the mainframe when smaller, ubiquitous computers pop up everywhere. Right now, there are currently FAR more microprocessors in your home than just your PC. I think the average car has maybe 50 - 100.

The thing is, we still have a dedicated "computing device" sitting there on our desk. In the future, we will no long have a "computer", merely things like "fridge that happens to have a computer", "walls that happen to be able to display info", "toilets with processors", "coffee mugs with processors" etc.

 

[rjain]

Originally posted by: glugglug

Originally posted by: rjain
Cellphones and PDAs are tools of Big Brother?

I was referring to the idea of noone having a computer on their desk, everyone just using dumb terminals to connect to a remote computer, i.e. a computer controlled by someone else, who can log your every move.

Why does that computer have to be controlled by someone else? Why does there even have to be a controlling computer? That's like saying that every PC needs a mainframe to control it.

 

[rjain]

Originally posted by: andyfasthands
Personally, I think law has to catch up to the internet before any network like this could be conceivable. Privacy, security and so many other things are entirely different in cyberspace. The constitution as we know it will not fit for our post-modern future..

The constitution doesn't need any changing here. Maybe some laws, but those are changed many times a day as it is.

 

[rjain]

Originally posted by: Shalmanese
"toilets with processors"

Will they send info directly to your dietician who will recommend changes in eating habits according to your waste?

 

[Amorphus]

Originally posted by: rjain

Originally posted by: Shalmanese
"toilets with processors"

Will they send info directly to your dietician who will recommend changes in eating habits according to your waste?

and also possibly tell you to stop f@pping. ever hear that joke about the guy trying to fool the pee analyzer?

 

[MrThermistor]

The personal computer is the very worst invention that I can name. Now any idiot can bleat their poorly written opinion on some message board.
I loved the 1980's, when only "nerds" had computers.

If anything, we'll see more PC's, not fewer.
Everything is a PC these days. Your phone can send email, your game console runs Linux, television is programmable.
The market is getting bigger, not smaller.