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So these are largely referendums on the current POTUS. For that point to have any validity, you'd have to expect POTUS to change his current course. We're all still waiting for a pivot.
There are lots of things that could happen that could give the president a boost in support. The most obvious being a war. I didn't look to closely at the results, was the tightening a result of eroding support for the Republican? Or was is high turnout for Democrats?
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