What should we do about North Korea? What will happen to them?

[Zeze]

Basically we can't touch them because NK can murder-suicide SK at any time. We are basically waiting for them to collapse/implode. What are your thoughts?

Here's a recent NK defector doing Q&A.

Now what's interesting about this one is that he's very fresh from NK, escaped just 1 year ago.

He sheds some new info on the general civilians of North Koreans:

-North Korean people mostly know about China's economy, because there is most interaction and awareness of that comparison. People think that China is much more developed than North Korea, but people also know that South Korea is even richer than China.

On people believing that their dictator is god-like:
-In the old days people believed that, and older people still largely believe that. But the younger generation does not believe that. It's like how I've noticed that the younger generation in the outside world have different beliefs or culture to the older generation too.

-I don't know about any underground movement of dissenters.
If the repression continues in the same way, then maybe people will rebel. But Kim Jong-un is changing the propaganda in a skillful way - for instance the new concerts in Pyongyang - and making a difference from his father's image so the people may be tricked again. You can also see a difference in the propaganda about re-defectors.

-In recent months there've been a number of high-profile cases in which individuals who previously had defected to South Korea have suddenly appeared in Pyongyang, denouncing the "heartless and decadent" society of the ROK, lamenting the fact that they had been "tricked" into going there, and praising the "generosity" of the DPRK for re-admitting their disgraceful selves.
The fact that this has started to happen so suddenly after the leadership transition, when it was practically unheard of before, has led many to suspect that the North's intelligence agencies may be involved, either through blackmail, or threats to relatives still living in the north, etc. etc.

 

[TraumaRN]

At this point I think there is little we can do on a world stage. I agree attacking them would be murder-suicide type pact. The shock on the world economy because of the loss of South Korea export would sting for a bit as well. But thats small fry to the real problem.

I think the biggest problem is China. You can't even hope to do anything about North Korea without going through China first. My personal thought is that without China propping them up, NK would have gone away years ago and instead of North and South we'd just be looking at Korea on the map. Or they'd be like Cuba...limping along as best they can.

To me it seems like the North Korean government has learned from the mistakes of previous failed dictatorship. They keep people in fear, keep the military happy, limit access to any kind of weapons in the populace, encourage citizens to essentially back stab any traitors to the state.

I wish I could say treat them like a bully and ignore them, but now that it seems that NK has some basics of nuclear weapon/tech that isn't really an option anymore. Unfortunately because of this I think it is an inevitability that the US/SK/other countries will eventually go to war. If the US and SK can convince China to stay out of it, the fight will probably be quite brief(few months I'd guess) although certainly devastating to SK with all the NK artillery pointed at them. But I'd guess the North Korean Army is a bit of a paper tiger in the face of massive US/SK modern military machine. If China gets involved on the side of NK however all bets are off.

 

[randomrogue]

Seoul is too close to the border which means a military solution is not possible.

Diplomacy has yielded nothing. China has to put pressure on NK and they won't do it.

Basically that leaves one thing on the table. Waiting. Must suck to be a North Korean.

 

[ElFenix]

one of those bluffers guides analyzed the NK artillery and thought that there wasn't enough long range artillery in the NK arsenal to do much to seoul.

 

[randomrogue]

one of those bluffers guides analyzed the NK artillery and thought that there wasn't enough long range artillery in the NK arsenal to do much to seoul.

Hmmm. We might be onto a huge piece of western propaganda:

http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/military/news/north-korea-and-flattening-seoul

The DMZ is 35 miles from Seoul though makes it pretty scary nonetheless. Lots of people would die.

 

[JTsyo]

I would think the US & SK military would have been planning to for this situations for the past few decades. Enough time to develop weapons for this particular situation. As far as I know the only counter to artillery is a counter battery to knock it out. Missiles might be able to be engaged and destroyed.
While Seoul would take a beating, I think SK would win pretty quickly even w/o US help. Another problem is what to do with NK afterwards. Bringing NK up from where they are will be a huge drain on SK's economy.

 

[Craig234]

I have to resist the temptation to be so fascinated by this incredibly isolated, brutal, evil social experiment not to forget to strongly oppose it for all the harm it does.

Nowhere else in the world can we observe this scale of societal brainwashing. There's almost a little something attractive about cultures that are isolated, given my view of the loss from the homogenization of global cultures - but not this case, there's nothing good about it, it's merely a brutal and evil dictatorship.

But what to do is a hard question - just as it was with Iraq under Saddam. I'd first ask South Korea for their suggestions for a plan - they seem far better positioned than us.

What about creative ideas - dropping pamphlets around the country from the air? Dropping cases of quality food products showing what others have?

It's tempting to want to be the cavalry and overthrow a dictator and install democracy, but those things are not nearly so simple and the costs to the people are high.

Just look at Syria, which is far freer, fighting for their freedom from a brutal leader.

It's a real moral issue though, not totally unlike the idea of 'what if the concentration camps in Germany were in place right now' - horrific camps are in North Korea.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Creative propaganda idea still have to honor the airspace of NK.


It is one thing to drop a packet of pamphlets at 40K feet and 500kts; where they will float to and how far away is difficult to figure but the delivery aircraft is long gone.. Drop at 5-10K at 200kts and you can effectively blanket the target area.

However, using an equivalent to a C130 exposes the aircrew to missile fire (legit) and/or interception.

Same goes with food drops; they need to be low and slow to get a delivery; not advisable when you have hostile fire from below and above.

You start doing overflights to drop items and that becomes a violation of their territory.

Sea drops will not work - how to get close enough in to get the packages to a populated area.

Mortar/rocket delivery? distance and payload issues; again firing something into the NK territory would be an act of war.

without the cooperation of the NK government; the people cna not be reached to be exposed to the outside world.

 

[Oyeve]

We can only hope 1 of 3 things.

1. The NK people will revolt, highly unlikely as the people are so afraid and brainwashed.

2. NK will accidentally nuke/destroy themselves.

3. NK does something stupid (even moreso) and attack either SK or a UN affiliate and the world (read USA) destoys them.

I am hoping for option 2.

 

[ChAoTiCpInOy]

I don't think anything can happen unless their leader is deposed. The leadership has such an iron hold on the whole country that a revolt by the people wouldn't do much of anything.

Nothing can be done without China and China doesn't want to allow the U.S./South Korea to be so close to their border. Talks between the U.S. and North Korea don't usually amount to anything (e.g. the last nuclear test they just performed). They say they won't do it but they do it anyways. The real sad part is that if we have economic sanctions on them, it's the people we're trying to help that gets punished by making them starve.

There needs to be a military option that is viable. We can't just go across the DMZ and invade the country because North Korea can easily bomb Seoul.

 

[Craig234]

Nothing can be done without China and China doesn't want to allow the U.S./South Korea to be so close to their border.

For good reason, as it turns out. Our history of taking advantage of 'opportunities', things like the invasion of Iraq, have a price on how countries view our intentions.

The USSR was really about keeping a 'buffer' of countries surrounding it for its own protection, not world conquest. China likely finds North Korea similarly useful.

 

[Zeze]

I think the whole 'China wants NK to be a buffer against SK/US' is well past obsolete.

US and China are billions of dollars trading partners. Today's war is waged by corporations and driving profit.

China has come a long way. They continue to shape their image as a modern nation with good public image. Having this retarded NK constantly cockblocking China is getting long in the tooth for them.

 

[ChAoTiCpInOy]

China has come a long way. They continue to shape their image as a modern nation with good public image. Having this retarded NK constantly cockblocking China is getting long in the tooth for them.

I think China is also getting tired of North Korea repeatedly going back on their promises. But they still won't let the U.S./U.N. take over North Korea.

For good reason, as it turns out. Our history of taking advantage of 'opportunities', things like the invasion of Iraq, have a price on how countries view our intentions.

Yeah the U.S. needs to work on its image. But what if it was a U.N. sponsored mission?

 

[EagleKeeper]

<snip>
Yeah the U.S. needs to work on its image. But what if it was a U.N. sponsored mission?

Remember that it was under UN auspices that Korea became divided.

As long as China sees SK as an US puppet; they are going to be concerned about a united Korea under SK guidance.

 

[ChAoTiCpInOy]

As long as China sees SK as an US puppet; they are going to be concerned about a united Korea under SK guidance.

What would be acceptable for China though? Because a united Korea under NK guidance isn't going to be happening.

I know both Korea's want unification, but would a North Korea with a democratic government and still separate from South Korea be a better solution?

 

[Craig234]

I think the whole 'China wants NK to be a buffer against SK/US' is well past obsolete.

US and China are billions of dollars trading partners. Today's war is waged by corporations and driving profit.

China has come a long way. They continue to shape their image as a modern nation with good public image. Having this retarded NK constantly cockblocking China is getting long in the tooth for them.

I think you have a point, and the wikileaks cables indicated China was open to ending their support for the NK regime.

 

[ChAoTiCpInOy]

Is North Korea just posturing or is something really going to happen next week when they "end the armistice"?

 

[Jodell88]

Is North Korea just posturing or is something really going to happen next week when they "end the armistice"?

North Korea will have to make the first move if anything is going to happen.

 

[Agent11]

North Korea could force us to nuke them if they continue on the way they are going.

 

[randomrogue]

North Korea could force us to nuke them if they continue on the way they are going.

How did you come to this conclusion? I don't believe there is any evidence to support a nuclear first strike. It would kill too many people, start a world war, and net us no economic or moral advantage.

 

[Jodell88]

How did you come to this conclusion? I don't believe there is any evidence to support a nuclear first strike. It would kill too many people, start a world war, and net us no economic or moral advantage.

Exactly. North Korea will have to make the first move. Then the international community will move in to the defense of South Korea.

 

[CrackRabbit]

Exactly. North Korea will have to make the first move. Then the international community will move in to the defense of South Korea.

Except this time they (the North Koreans) won't have the Chinese and Russians to back them up.

If there is a war (and I hope for all the people in Seoul that there isn't) it will likely be short. The aftermath of dealing with mass casualties in Seoul, a ruined industrial center and the masses of starving, brainwashed North Koreans would be horrid.

 

[sandorski]

If there were such a thing as a fallout free Nuke, I wouldn't hesitate to use them on North Korea. There's just so much risk in letting them play out their game of brinksmanship. Unfortunately such a thing doesn't exist.

 

[Craig234]

If there were such a thing as a fallout free Nuke, I wouldn't hesitate to use them on North Korea. There's just so much risk in letting them play out their game of brinksmanship. Unfortunately such a thing doesn't exist.

How does this make you any better than a North Korean who wants to nuke us? How are you any less of a threat to them than you say they are to us?

Seems to me this is a type of arrogance of power, where any 'threat' from anyone else is unacceptable, but there's a double standard in the threats they should be ok with.

If they want to nuke us, we have plenty of people who want to nuke them, who say things like 'we could nuke them if it weren't for the risk to South Korea' - how is that better?

 

[EagleKeeper]

North Korea could force us to nuke them if they continue on the way they are going.

Why would they force us?

How could they force us without settling off a nuke themselves that would be traceable back to them. They do not even have a delivery system.

We have the overall advantage in firepower if willing to lose Seoul without nukes;

Nukes will have minimal effect on their weapons system, only take out some leadership and not be justified.