What is up with Ohio??

[ProfJohn]

What a strange outcome that would be.

Imagine McCain winning Ohio and losing Virginia, but it could happen.

Currently Obama is leading Ohio at +2.8 according to realclearpolitics.
Two polls show a McCain lead two show an Obama lead.

Then look at Virginia.
Obama is leading +8!!!!
All four polls show an Obama lead.

Very strange.

Personally I am guessing that the VA polls are off.
Don't think we go from a 8 point Bush victory to a 8 point Obama victory in one election. Obama may win VA, but I doubt it is by that much.

 

[smashp]

As I have stated in many other threads, This state is full of Redneck Bible thumpers who await the end of days

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
What a strange outcome that would be.

Imagine McCain winning Ohio and losing Virginia, but it could happen.

Currently Obama is leading Ohio at +2.8 according to realclearpolitics.
Two polls show a McCain lead two show an Obama lead.

Then look at Virginia.
Obama is leading +8!!!!
All four polls show an Obama lead.

Very strange.

Personally I am guessing that the VA polls are off.
Don't think we go from a 8 point Bush victory to a 8 point Obama victory in one election. Obama may win VA, but I doubt it is by that much.

Do you know how many people live in the Metro DC area? 6 million. A huge chunk of that is Northern VA which is why Obama is winning the state (i.e. not the "REAL VA" according to McCain's advisor). This area is ranked number one for 20-34 singles in the country for a reason (one of the best places to find a job out of college due to tech/gov). And young people vote Obama, and this area is increasing so fast that traffic is one big clusterfck trying to get home (it gets worse every month esp since we're getting no increase in DOT road funding). Anyway, that's why this state is getting flipped Blue, better get used to it.

BTW, if Obama wins VA + IA he wins the presidency (assuming he wins all Kerry states which he will). Game. Set. Match. to 272 EV's.

 

[Balt]

I've been saying for weeks, no way is this election gonna be a landslide. There was virtually no way Obama was going to stay at the his polling peak for two straight months.

 

[rockyct]

Virginia has been very close to the national polls this cycle, meaning a 5 point Obama lead nationally is about a 5 point Obama lead in Virginia. Ohio has been polling 3 or 4 points on the McCain side meaning a 5 point Obama lead nationally is a 1-2 point Obama lead in Ohio. It's been like that for months. The only surprised right now is North Carolina polling so well for Obama.

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: Balt
I've been saying for weeks, no way is this election gonna be a landslide. There was virtually no way Obama was going to stay at the his polling peak for two straight months.

He peaked around 10/11 iirc, then receded, then came back a bit since.

 

[microbial]

Some Virginians aren't real Virginians, plus those non-real Virginians hate America.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: Balt
I've been saying for weeks, no way is this election gonna be a landslide. There was virtually no way Obama was going to stay at the his polling peak for two straight months.

Well, it's going to be more of a landslide than the Bush 2004 "landslide" that allegedly granted him a mandate to do whatever he wanted. Plus I suspect the electoral vote tally will be quite a bit in Obama's favor.

 

[seemingly random]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
What a strange outcome that would be.

Imagine McCain winning Ohio and losing Virginia, but it could happen.

Currently Obama is leading Ohio at +2.8 according to realclearpolitics.
Two polls show a McCain lead two show an Obama lead.

Then look at Virginia.
Obama is leading +8!!!!
All four polls show an Obama lead.

Very strange.

Personally I am guessing that the VA polls are off.
Don't think we go from a 8 point Bush victory to a 8 point Obama victory in one election. Obama may win VA, but I doubt it is by that much.

Not a big surprise. It just reflects how bad a job the republicans have done. How much they are detested.

 

[Balt]

Originally posted by: Farang

Originally posted by: Balt
I've been saying for weeks, no way is this election gonna be a landslide. There was virtually no way Obama was going to stay at the his polling peak for two straight months.

He peaked around 10/11 iirc, then receded, then came back a bit since.

I probably should have said plateau rather than peak. His numbers really started climbing after the economic collapse and it looks like in the last week or so they've started to decline. I don't suspect he's going to crater but I think it's really going to tighten up.

 

[sportage]

Changing demographics, economy, negative campaigning from the right (which are on the wrong), and given the republicans have been in charge for the last 8 years and blocked whatever the democrats tried to do in the congress especially as to the war after 2006, it doesn?t take rocket science to figure out what is going on here (or there). (byw, do republicans still believe in rocket science?)

 

[ProfJohn]

I just don't see demographics changing 16% in 4 years.

Bush won VA by 250,000+ votes in 2004.

You guys are suggesting 500,000 voters have switched in 4 years??
Just doesn't seem that likely.

 

[seemingly random]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
I just don't see demographics changing 16% in 4 years.

Bush won VA by 250,000+ votes in 2004.

You guys are suggesting 500,000 voters have switched in 4 years??
Just doesn't seem that likely.

I think most people voted the fud ballot four years ago. Maybe they've come out of their stupor.

 

[First]

It's irrelevant since the overwhelming liklihood is that Obama takes VA's 13 electoral votes, effectively ending the election even if McCain sweeps Ohio, MO, Indiana, Florida, and NC, which is exceedingly unlikely. It's likely BHO takes this by 100-150 electoral votes.

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
I just don't see demographics changing 16% in 4 years.

Bush won VA by 250,000+ votes in 2004.

You guys are suggesting 500,000 voters have switched in 4 years??
Just doesn't seem that likely.

That seems unlikely but if such an unlikely scenario would occur it would be when you have an extremely motivated group of voters who traditionally don't vote as much as everyone else (blacks), a sharp rise in population density (one of the fastest in the nation) which happens to be constituents of the opposite party, all guided by a highly favorable political climate and the richest, possibly the best organized political campaign in American history.

Virginia is a perfect storm for Republicans, that is why a 500,000-voter switch doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility.

edit: and it isn't 500,000 people changing their minds. That is a poor way to characterize it if the polls are correct on election day.

and another thing that should be noted is that traditionally no resources are put into this state by the Democrats, so leaving it uncontested probably costs them a few points there also. Combined with the other factors and the poll numbers don't seem so surprising.