what is the significance of a 90% confidence interval

[ElFenix]

is it that 90% of the time the value will be within the range specified?


<----- hates BAPCPA

 

[Ronstang]

Basically

 

[drinkmorejava]

yes, generally you like to see it around 95% though

 

[Ika]

Originally posted by: drinkmorejava
yes, generally you like to see it around 95% though

Depends on what you're looking for...

 

[ElFenix]

so, if there are say, 200 values reported, each with a 90% confidence interval, there is a very good chance that at least a handful of the actual values are outside of the ranges specified.


i wonder how long before someone challenges being forced into ch 13 by the means test when their income is $100 over the threshold limit for automatic ch 7. which would be well within the confidence interval.

god this law is retarded. i'm not a debt relief agency, i'm a lawyer.

 

[Mark R]

Originally posted by: ElFenix
so, if there are say, 200 values reported, each with a 90% confidence interval, there is a very good chance that at least a handful of the actual values are outside of the ranges specified.

Yes. A 90% confidence interval means that the actual value has a 90% chance of falling within your range (and by extension a 10% chance of falling outside it).

So, if you measured 200 parameters, and calculated a 90% confidence interval for each - you would expect 20 of the actual values to lie outside your estimated range.

From there, you can estimate the likelihood of a specific number of values lying outside their estimated range. E.g. the probability of all 200 values lying within their estimated ranges is very low (<0.0000001%).