What Is The Most Likely Outcome For The Iran Situation?

[jpeyton]

In my opinion, this is "THE" story of the year so far. Both sides are not backing down, and there is no smoking gun like WMDs to push the argument one way or the other.

Why is the West even threatening Security Council action if they know China and Russia will veto?

Why is there talk of sanctions, when the countries who sanction know the adverse affects on a third of their oil imports? And China and Russia will be happy to buy up any slack.

Is there a credible chance of military action, even though most of Iran's major nuclear centers are in hardened deep underground facilities? The risk of retaliatory action is also high, and the risk of Syria and Shiite factions in Iraq joining in are high. Any major military action would consume the entire gulf region, threatening world oil supplies and requiring the attention of a large (and unavailable) occupying force from the US.

And would the world even support military action? The "grand coalition" in Iraq is hanging together by threads, and there is currently ZERO (nada) proof that Iran intends to produce anything but nuclear power.

On the other hand, Iran poses a serious threat to the US dominance of the world oil market by backing the Euro as the default currency for their oil exports. This would increase their profits while devaluing the dollar, and other oil producing countries would likely follow suit to increase their profits as well. Iran is officially changing to the Euro standard in March, to coincide with their New Year. Iraq was also planning to do the same right before we invaded (coincedence? Nope).

Israel (our satellite state in the Middle East) has the most powerful military in the region because they possess "nukular" weapons (in violation of the NPT, I might add). Do we risk letting Iran introduce M.A.D. into the region (which might actually stabilize things)?

What do you guys think will play out in the coming months? I see no options but one: let Iran continue their program with intense international oversight.

 

[Genx87]

Honestly I think Israel will end this for the west and do their dirty work.

Israel knows what will happen if they go Nuclear.

btw I dont see how having Iran go nuclear stabilizes anything.

 

[Aimster]

Originally posted by: Genx87
Honestly I think Israel will end this for the west and do their dirty work.

Israel knows what will happen if they go Nuclear.

If Israel does anything it will bring the U.S into it.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: Aimster

Originally posted by: Genx87
Honestly I think Israel will end this for the west and do their dirty work.

Israel knows what will happen if they go Nuclear.

If Israel does anything it will bring the U.S into it.

Did it when they destroyed Saddams Nuclear plant in 81?

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: Genx87
Honestly I think Israel will end this for the west and do their dirty work.

Israel knows what will happen if they go Nuclear.

btw I dont see how having Iran go nuclear stabilizes anything.

M.A.D. assures your enemies equality in the damage they inflict. Would you press the launch button if you knew your enemy would respond in kind? The fear of nuclear holocaust prevents it.

 

[Aimster]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: Aimster

Originally posted by: Genx87
Honestly I think Israel will end this for the west and do their dirty work.

Israel knows what will happen if they go Nuclear.

If Israel does anything it will bring the U.S into it.

Did it when they destroyed Saddams Nuclear plant in 81?

The U.S wasn't to their left and it wasn't to their right.

If Iran is attacked they will launch hundreds/thousands of missiles at U.S bases in Iraq.

The U.S is going to have to invade or carpet bomb Iran. The U.S is not barbaric so they will have to invade.

 

[rickn]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: Aimster

Originally posted by: Genx87
Honestly I think Israel will end this for the west and do their dirty work.

Israel knows what will happen if they go Nuclear.

If Israel does anything it will bring the U.S into it.

Did it when they destroyed Saddams Nuclear plant in 81?

except Iraq is not Iran. I imagine their nuclear facilities are probably safe guarded with the best defenses that they can buy. they probably put better defenses around their nuke facilities than they do their own crazy clerical regime. I think the US will do Israel's dirty work. Cuz if Israel does it, then there will not be any peace in the ME for a very very long time. Iraq become democracy? about a snowballs chance in hell. All the muslim world united against Israel, Jordan and Egypt will become hostile neighbors, it will happen.

 

[piasabird]

Bombs Away!

Make them an example and bomb the hell out of them.

What is the use of the MOAB and 5,000 lbs bunker busters if you dont use them.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Genx87
Honestly I think Israel will end this for the west and do their dirty work.

Israel knows what will happen if they go Nuclear.

btw I dont see how having Iran go nuclear stabilizes anything.

M.A.D. assures your enemies equality in the damage they inflict. Would you press the launch button if you knew your enemy would respond in kind? The fear of nuclear holocaust prevents it.

MAD was an accepted practice when there were basically two world powers who had tight control over their proxy states. Having every nutjob govt in town possess a nuclear device is like letting every criminal carry a gun in prison. Eventually one of them is going to use it even if they know everybody else will open fire on them.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: rickn

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: Aimster

Originally posted by: Genx87
Honestly I think Israel will end this for the west and do their dirty work.

Israel knows what will happen if they go Nuclear.

If Israel does anything it will bring the U.S into it.

Did it when they destroyed Saddams Nuclear plant in 81?

except Iraq is not Iran. I imagine their nuclear facilities are probably safe guarded with the best defenses that they can buy. they probably put better defenses around their nuke facilities than they do their own crazy clerical regime. I think the US will do Israel's dirty work. Cuz if Israel does it, then there will not be any peace in the ME for a very very long time. Iraq become democracy? about a snowballs chance in hell. All the muslim world united against Israel, Jordan and Egypt will become hostile neighbors, it will happen.

News flash, there wont be absolute peace in the region for a very long time anways.

 

[rickn]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: rickn

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: Aimster

Originally posted by: Genx87
Honestly I think Israel will end this for the west and do their dirty work.

Israel knows what will happen if they go Nuclear.

If Israel does anything it will bring the U.S into it.

Did it when they destroyed Saddams Nuclear plant in 81?

except Iraq is not Iran. I imagine their nuclear facilities are probably safe guarded with the best defenses that they can buy. they probably put better defenses around their nuke facilities than they do their own crazy clerical regime. I think the US will do Israel's dirty work. Cuz if Israel does it, then there will not be any peace in the ME for a very very long time. Iraq become democracy? about a snowballs chance in hell. All the muslim world united against Israel, Jordan and Egypt will become hostile neighbors, it will happen.

News flash, there wont be absolute peace in the region for a very long time anways.

well, then add a few decades to it, if EVER

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Genx87
Honestly I think Israel will end this for the west and do their dirty work.

Israel knows what will happen if they go Nuclear.

btw I dont see how having Iran go nuclear stabilizes anything.

M.A.D. assures your enemies equality in the damage they inflict. Would you press the launch button if you knew your enemy would respond in kind? The fear of nuclear holocaust prevents it.

MAD was an accepted practice when there were basically two world powers who had tight control over their proxy states. Having every nutjob govt in town possess a nuclear device is like letting every criminal carry a gun in prison. Eventually one of them is going to use it even if they know everybody else will open fire on them.

:roll: Yes, every nation is suicidal because Scott McClellan said so...

Back in reality, people who run countries actually want their nation to prosper.

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: piasabird
Bombs Away!

Make them an example and bomb the hell out of them.

What is the use of the MOAB and 5,000 lbs bunker busters if you dont use them.

A bunker is not a deep hardened underground facility. Military officials say that small tactical nukes might be necessary to properly disable some of Iran's facilities.

 

[Zebo]

France will be the first nuclear muslim country without a shot fired I might add - simply by migration by 2020ish. Iran will get taken down either by us, either party - does'nt matter or israel by 2008 since weapons are starting to become a reality by then according to the experts.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Genx87
Honestly I think Israel will end this for the west and do their dirty work.

Israel knows what will happen if they go Nuclear.

btw I dont see how having Iran go nuclear stabilizes anything.

M.A.D. assures your enemies equality in the damage they inflict. Would you press the launch button if you knew your enemy would respond in kind? The fear of nuclear holocaust prevents it.

MAD was an accepted practice when there were basically two world powers who had tight control over their proxy states. Having every nutjob govt in town possess a nuclear device is like letting every criminal carry a gun in prison. Eventually one of them is going to use it even if they know everybody else will open fire on them.

:roll: Yes, every nation is suicidal because Scott McClellan said so...

Back in reality, people who run countries actually want their nation to prosper.

Like N.Korea? There are groups of people who want power at any cost.
Even if you dont buy into my analogy the you have to admit that allowing more and more access points for nuclear devices to be aquired is not good policy.

 

[palehorse]

Originally posted by: Genx87
News flash, there wont be absolute peace in the region for a very long time anways.

QFT.

People really need to start preparing for the decades of conflict we have facing us. Once they accept it and begin their personal preperations, we'll be able to move forward at full force in the GWOT. Right now, too many people remain too optimistic. The result is a less efficient force in battling terrorism... The "I want it here and now" generation is having a VERY hard time grasping the concept of a century-long battle against terrorism... it's too much for them to fathom, or they're just not willing to go through with it...

/ramble off...

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Genx87
Honestly I think Israel will end this for the west and do their dirty work.

Israel knows what will happen if they go Nuclear.

btw I dont see how having Iran go nuclear stabilizes anything.

M.A.D. assures your enemies equality in the damage they inflict. Would you press the launch button if you knew your enemy would respond in kind? The fear of nuclear holocaust prevents it.

MAD was an accepted practice when there were basically two world powers who had tight control over their proxy states. Having every nutjob govt in town possess a nuclear device is like letting every criminal carry a gun in prison. Eventually one of them is going to use it even if they know everybody else will open fire on them.

:roll: Yes, every nation is suicidal because Scott McClellan said so...

Back in reality, people who run countries actually want their nation to prosper.

Like N.Korea? There are groups of people who want power at any cost.
Even if you dont buy into my analogy the you have to admit that allowing more and more access points for nuclear devices to be aquired is not good policy.

Right, but you seem to think brainless people are running these countries. Every nation with a standing army has world-class generals and military planners. Tell me how a country like Iran or N.K. could think they would "acquire" power after a nuclear strike that would undoubtedly turn their entire country into a mushroom cloud? Do you think the people at the helm really think there is no reaction to their action?

 

[palehorse]

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Genx87
Honestly I think Israel will end this for the west and do their dirty work.

Israel knows what will happen if they go Nuclear.

btw I dont see how having Iran go nuclear stabilizes anything.

M.A.D. assures your enemies equality in the damage they inflict. Would you press the launch button if you knew your enemy would respond in kind? The fear of nuclear holocaust prevents it.

MAD was an accepted practice when there were basically two world powers who had tight control over their proxy states. Having every nutjob govt in town possess a nuclear device is like letting every criminal carry a gun in prison. Eventually one of them is going to use it even if they know everybody else will open fire on them.

:roll: Yes, every nation is suicidal because Scott McClellan said so...

Back in reality, people who run countries actually want their nation to prosper.

Like N.Korea? There are groups of people who want power at any cost.
Even if you dont buy into my analogy the you have to admit that allowing more and more access points for nuclear devices to be aquired is not good policy.

Right, but you seem to think brainless people are running these countries. Every nation with a standing army has world-class generals and military planners. Tell me how a country like Iran or N.K. could think they would "acquire" power after a nuclear strike that would undoubtedly turn their entire country into a mushroom cloud? Do you think the people at the helm really think there is no reaction to their action?

lol..ok, i see where you have gone wrong: you believe that some of the evil leaders in the world are rational! umm, hate to shatter your reality, but most of the leaders in question walked off the deep end long ago... concepts such as "consequence of action" and "cause and effect" are lost on them.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Genx87
Honestly I think Israel will end this for the west and do their dirty work.

Israel knows what will happen if they go Nuclear.

btw I dont see how having Iran go nuclear stabilizes anything.

M.A.D. assures your enemies equality in the damage they inflict. Would you press the launch button if you knew your enemy would respond in kind? The fear of nuclear holocaust prevents it.

MAD was an accepted practice when there were basically two world powers who had tight control over their proxy states. Having every nutjob govt in town possess a nuclear device is like letting every criminal carry a gun in prison. Eventually one of them is going to use it even if they know everybody else will open fire on them.

:roll: Yes, every nation is suicidal because Scott McClellan said so...

Back in reality, people who run countries actually want their nation to prosper.

Like N.Korea? There are groups of people who want power at any cost.
Even if you dont buy into my analogy the you have to admit that allowing more and more access points for nuclear devices to be aquired is not good policy.

Right, but you seem to think brainless people are running these countries. Every nation with a standing army has world-class generals and military planners. Tell me how a country like Iran or N.K. could think they would "acquire" power after a nuclear strike that would undoubtedly turn their entire country into a mushroom cloud? Do you think the people at the helm really think there is no reaction to their action?

Did you hear what the Iranian leader had to say about the Halocaust and Israel? Does that sound like somebody grounded in reality?

They dont care, they just dont. Would you rather be known for doing nothing or being the guy who wiped Israel off the face of the earth?

The Nazis on the last days of the war bragged about their legacy and how they would live forever even in death.

And you avoided my question about lowering the amount of access points to nuclear devices.

 

[Jmman]

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Genx87
Honestly I think Israel will end this for the west and do their dirty work.

Israel knows what will happen if they go Nuclear.

btw I dont see how having Iran go nuclear stabilizes anything.

M.A.D. assures your enemies equality in the damage they inflict. Would you press the launch button if you knew your enemy would respond in kind? The fear of nuclear holocaust prevents it.

Mad is what the rulers in Iran are. With a group that believes that martyrdom is the greatest achievement you can make, and assures you glory in heaven, mutually assured destruction becomes meaningless. We cannot let a country that supports weekly state sponsored chants of death to America, and who openly states that wiping Israel off the map is the goal, to join the nuclear club. You might believe that they mean no harm, but are you willing to stake your life on it? I am not.....

 

[ntdz]

I think sanctions will be imposed, Iran won't budge, and I think either we'll stick with the sanctions or we'll get UN approval and bomb their facilities. I do *not* think there will be any sort of invasion.

 

[conjur]

Curious, what would you envision as sanctions?

 

[rickn]

Originally posted by: conjur
Curious, what would you envision as sanctions?

cut off their supply of rat poison, the WMD of choice.

I don't see how sanctions will work, cuz Russia and China won't go along with it

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: rickn

Originally posted by: conjur
Curious, what would you envision as sanctions?

cut off their supply of rat poison, the WMD of choice.

I don't see how sanctions will work, cuz Russia and China won't go along with it

As the UN oil for food scandel has showed us, you are correct.

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: Genx87
And you avoided my question about lowering the amount of access points to nuclear devices.

Well access to nuclear materials is a bigger problem than just Iran. With our oil supplies maxed out, nuclear power is an inevitability for all big nations during this century. Nuclear power is the only proven way to produce large quantities of energy without burning fossil fuels.

It is every sovereign nation's right to produce nuclear power. So in my opinion, every nation in the world should be allowed to produce/possess nuclear material. It should be banned for private sale or use only. In that sense, access points can only be controlled, not reduced. We can only hope to track the sale and distribution of nuclear materials at the source, and hold the buyers reponsible for their share.

I am much more afraid of countries like Russia with thousands of times more nuclear material than Iran. A few pounds of material out of millions goes unnoticed when missing.