What is the answer to this riddle?

[her209]

you are a prisoner in a foreign land. your fate will be determined by a little game. there are two jars, one with 50 white marbles, and one with 50 black marbles. at this point, you are allowed to redistribute the marbles however you wish (e.g. swap a black marble with a white marble, etc.): the only requirement is that after you are done with the redistribution, every marble must be in one of the two jars. afterwards, both jars will be shaken up, and you will be blindfolded and presented with one of the jars at random. then you pick one marble out of the jar given to you. if the marble you pull out is white, you live; if black, you die. how should you redistribute the marbles to maximize the probability that you live; what is this maximum probability (roughly)?

If you don't move any marbles, you still have a 50% chance of living.

If you distribute the marbles equally between the two jars, you still have a 50% of living.

 

[icejunkie]

the highest probability is 50%... but that's life anyway everyday... you are either alive or dead, so this isn't a real dilemma, it's just life as is to the extreme.

 

[chuckywang]

Put 1 white marble in one jar and 49 white marbles and 50 black marbles in the other jar. The probability that you live is close to 3/4.

 

[CrazyPerson]

you pick out all the black ones in each jar, break each marble into two pieces then put them back

 

[Joemonkey]

Originally posted by: chuckywang
Put 1 white marble in one jar and 49 white marbles and 50 black marbles in the other jar. The probability that you live is close to 3/4.

dang that's good thinking

 

[Squisher]

Originally posted by: chuckywang
Put 1 white marble in one jar and 49 white marbles and 50 black marbles in the other jar. The probability that you live is close to 3/4.

 

[CrazyPerson]

Originally posted by: CrazyPerson
you pick out all the black ones in each jar, break each marble into two pieces then put them back

when asked to pick them out, look for the whole marble

 

[bootymac]

Originally posted by: chuckywang
Put 1 white marble in one jar and 49 white marbles and 50 black marbles in the other jar. The probability that you live is close to 3/4.

Genius

 

[Forsythe]

I'd put one white in one of the jars and all the rest in the other. That's allmost 75% chance of survival. Neat.

[Edit]
Fuck, someone beat me. nm.

 

[DaTT]

Originally posted by: CrazyPerson

Originally posted by: CrazyPerson
you pick out all the black ones in each jar, break each marble into two pieces then put them back

when asked to pick them out, look for the whole marble

Seconded.

 

[daniel49]

anticipating capture, I have cleverly concealed a tube of industrial strength clorine in my sleeve. while they are busy shaking the white jar I have dumped the clorine into the black jar causing all black marbles to loose there pigmentation.
Unable to buy new black marbles as a result of the locals celebrating bannana cabbana day, My captors are forced to release me to fight another day.

 

[dsfunk]

Originally posted by: chuckywang
Put 1 white marble in one jar and 49 white marbles and 50 black marbles in the other jar. The probability that you live is close to 3/4.

You're right, but at first I thought pour all but one of one color out and put on bottom of the other color jar and get a 100 percent chance. Then I read the part where they shake them up.