What is so appealing about Deal or No Deal?

[bigrash]

never watched it

 

[chambersc]

Originally posted by: apinomus
Lets up the ante:

Russian Roulette

Now THAT will get ratings

i would DEF. watch that show on one condition.... it was 100% live. no delay.

 

[BD2003]

Originally posted by: pinion9

Originally posted by: JujuFish

Originally posted by: pinion9
You are absolutely wrong with your example because it becomes a new game. With probability like this you cannot take into account past performance or tries; you must view it as a new game altogether. In your example with the box you have two remaining, so there is absolutely a 50/50 chance of getting the one empty box.

Each time the round ends you put your box back into the pile, but you MUST choose the same box each time. Yes, overall you have a 1/10 chance of picking the box with money. However, with only two boxes left, at that very moment, there is a 50/50 chance of you having the money. There are two boxes, one has money. 50/50 chance.

As for taking the door, you are wrong. You open 1 door of the 3 and now you have 2 doors left. You pick 100 random people to open one of the remaining doors and the distribution will be about 1/2, not 2/3.

If you flip a coin nine times and get heads each time, what is the probablity of getting a heads on the next flip? --- Exactly 50% because past performance matters none and you play the game at that very instant.

I'd totally love to gamble with you. You don't happen to live near western New York, do you?

Why don't you answer my question instead of trying to incite flame wars.

Flip a coin nine times and get heads each time. What is the probability that the tenth flip will be heads?

Hate to say it, but he's right, and youre wrong.

The thing you are not taking into account: in lets make a deal, they are only going to open the door that does not contain the prize. If you originally chose the right door, they have the choice of either. BUT, if you originally chose one of the 2 wrong doors, they MUST open the other wrong door, since they obviously are not going to open the door with the prize. Therefore its a 2/3 chance that the door they did not open is the proper one!

Its tough to wrap your head around it at first, but he's right.