What is happening to Nvidia's stock prices?

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tincart

Senior member
Apr 15, 2010
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Chip stocks, in general, are not doing so hot. As I recall, a recent analyst report was suggesting lowered revenue for this quarter. Further, other analyst reports are calling for lower IT spending this year. Bad news for many tech stocks.
 
GodisanAtheist

GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
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They're coming down in price to compete with AMD's stocks :)
Stock price war.

More to the point they're becoming more and more tempting as the days go by. I really need to snag some before they rebound.
 
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v8envy

Platinum Member
Sep 7, 2002
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GodisanAtheist said:
More to the point they're becoming more and more tempting as the days go by. I really need to snag some before they rebound.
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I know this isn't the investment forum, but what makes the stock more attractive at $10 than at $17? Does it simply seem like a good bargain in a historical sense -- last time it was this low was '08?

Me, I never catch falling knives. Sure, that means I never time the "bottom" -- but IMO bottom fishing ends up burning far more people than it enriches. I prefer to see a clear upward trend before climbing aboard.

At a glance the six month chart doesn't look too hot from a technical perspective. Several clear "head and shoulders patterns", with the most recent one looking like sub-$10 could be in the near future. With absolutely no reversal patterns in sight.
 
N

Nurn

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Sep 18, 2007
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v8envy said:
Me, I never catch falling knives. Sure, that means I never time the "bottom" -- but IMO bottom fishing ends up burning far more people than it enriches. I prefer to see a clear upward trend before climbing aboard.
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I've been juggling those knives for the past three years, and have the deep scars to prove it. When will I learn?
 
AdamK47

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
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I switched from Two SLI GTX 280s to Three CrossFireX 5870s at around April 5th after reading the GTX 470/480 reviews.
 
Winterpool

Winterpool

Senior member
Mar 1, 2008
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v8envy said:
Me, I never catch falling knives. Sure, that means I never time the "bottom" -- but IMO bottom fishing ends up burning far more people than it enriches. I prefer to see a clear upward trend before climbing aboard.
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I called the 2009 bottom for Apple but was dissauded by punters much cleverer than I from putting every spare bit of cash I had into AAPL shares as they fell below $80 and then $79. Every day I am auto-emailed AAPL's new share price so I can kick myself again.

On a more speculative bent I also strongly considered buying AMD shares round $2. And this was well after RV770 had been released. Ugh.

That said, v8envy is right: the prudent course is to buy when the recovery has begun in earnest, not guess at 'bottoms'.
 
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SHAQ

Senior member
Aug 5, 2002
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It's probably a victim of naked short selling. Has anyone checked the fail to deliver stats on it?
 
Will Robinson

Will Robinson

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Dec 19, 2009
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Its more likely a reflection on NVs current range of products which are struggling in the market place.
ATi's last quarter market share of 42% obviously is beginning to bite.
 
A

Acanthus

Lifer
Aug 28, 2001
19,915
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nvidia is in a really bad business position.

A lackluster flagship product, lackluster lineup (although the 460 and 465 are steps in the right direction) they got muscled out of Nforce for Intel, ATi is gaining marketshare, few people seem to be adopting Tegra2, Intel bitchslapped ION production, and none of this seems to be changing any time soon.
 
ultimatebob

ultimatebob

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Jul 1, 2001
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You guys are aware that NVidia's high-end graphics chips only make up a small portion of their revenue, right? The real money is in the embedded chipsets that they sell in the millions to netbook and notebook manufacturers, and to manufacturers of low end desktop systems with integrated graphics.

Sorry, but the sales of a few thousand enthusiast-level SLI graphics card setups with massive heat pumps that sound like an air conditioners when they run isn't going to have much more than a halo effect to NVidia's marketing campaign if they happen to have the fastest card that quarter.
 
L

Lonyo

Lifer
Aug 10, 2002
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ultimatebob said:
You guys are aware that NVidia's high-end graphics chips only make up a small portion of their revenue, right? The real money is in the embedded chipsets that they sell in the millions to netbook and notebook manufacturers, and to manufacturers of low end desktop systems with integrated graphics.

Sorry, but the sales of a few thousand enthusiast-level SLI graphics card setups with massive heat pumps that sound like an air conditioners when they run isn't going to have much more than a halo effect to NVidia's marketing campaign if they happen to have the fastest card that quarter.
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No, the real money (profit, not revenue) is in the workstation/HPC market.
 
A

Acanthus

Lifer
Aug 28, 2001
19,915
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ultimatebob said:
You guys are aware that NVidia's high-end graphics chips only make up a small portion of their revenue, right? The real money is in the embedded chipsets that they sell in the millions to netbook and notebook manufacturers, and to manufacturers of low end desktop systems with integrated graphics.

Sorry, but the sales of a few thousand enthusiast-level SLI graphics card setups with massive heat pumps that sound like an air conditioners when they run isn't going to have much more than a halo effect to NVidia's marketing campaign if they happen to have the fastest card that quarter.
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You mean the OEM contracts they are losing in droves because of piss poor mobile driver support and an all out invasion from Intel with integrated CPU graphics with AMD fusion on the horizon?
 
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thedosbox

Senior member
Oct 16, 2009
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Nvidia's business model depends on either (a) high margins or (b) high volume. They currently have neither.

Their video cards cost more to manufacture relative to the competition, so lower margins are needed to stay price competitive. Needless to say, $350+ video cards are not high volume parts.

Intel have cut them out of the chipset business for Intel CPU's. This leaves them fighting with AMD's chipset business on only 20% of the market.

Whether Nvidia stock is worthwhile depends on how quickly they can reduce the manufacturing cost of mainstream Fermi parts, and how quickly they can grow parts of the business that have been relatively small to date.
 
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Soleron

Senior member
May 10, 2009
337
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shangshang said:
how's AMD doing here?
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Improving, but from a low base. They had no presence at all a few years back and as their drivers and products improved they gained a better reputation. So Nvidia had almost 100% of that market and that has declined a little. Maybe 70-30 Nvidia-AMD now?

Their current products beat Nvidia's GT200 parts (of course) and the Fermi Teslas/Quadros are not out in significant quantities and indeed are crippled specs-wise (top product is only 448 shaders at 1150MHz). AMD's FirePro based on the 5870 should beat that and do it with less power and lower price.

If applications use CUDA or optimise directly for Nvidia then Nvidia's cards will be faster, but in raw compute power terms AMD should win (just harder to extract that).
 
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Soleron

Senior member
May 10, 2009
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thedosbox said:
Whether Nvidia stock is worthwhile depends on how quickly they can reduce the manufacturing cost of mainstream Fermi parts, and how quickly they can grow parts of the business that have been relatively small to date.
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This. HPC and Tesla are not taking off (but they are increasing); and Tegra 2 has only one actual design win in a product you can buy (not paper design wins).

Nvidia needs to get power consumption under control the most. The HPC and SoC markets really really care about that and they haven't managed to be competitive in those markets there.
 
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shangshang

Senior member
May 17, 2008
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soleron,
thank you for answering my lazy question.

hmmm i'm contemplating on buying NV at this moment. I've sitting on all cash for the last 2 years and itching to park it some where. I'm young and willing to take risk. I think NV at around $10ish is a good buy, not a great buy. $8 would be great, but I don't think NV will do down that far. Don't think NV will fall like a knife through hot butter. This is a leading company with a good CEO and healthy balance sheet. Now and then even a leader will hit a snag; that's when you buy. umm
 
S

Soleron

Senior member
May 10, 2009
337
0
71
shangshang said:
soleron,
thank you for answering my lazy question.

hmmm i'm contemplating on buying NV at this moment. I've sitting on all cash for the last 2 years and itching to park it some where. I'm young and willing to take risk. I think NV at around $10ish is a good buy, not a great buy. $8 would be great, but I don't think NV will do down that far. Don't think NV will fall like a knife through hot butter. This is a leading company with a good CEO and healthy balance sheet. Now and then even a leader will hit a snag; that's when you buy. umm
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I wouldn't. Large sources of Nvidia's revenue are going to go away in the future, despite the new revenue streams (which we don't know will last, especially Tegra).

- They won't have a chipset business shortly. That was a large business for them.
- Low-end graphics, where the volume is, will be superseded by Llano and Sandy Bridge, and therefore OEMs will just not need to buy discrete graphics cards except for specifically-gaming machines.

If Nvidia had a plan to make a CPU+GPU then I would buy their stock.
 
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