What happens when oil starts to get scarce?

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Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
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Originally posted by: Fencer128
Originally posted by: Hayabusarider
Oil is a finite resource. So it is going to run out. 2010? 2020? Not the point. Oil will rule until other options are cost effective. Unfortunately other options will not be ready because they are not cost effective.

Not run out - start becoming more and more expensive at those times.

Cheers,

Andy


Let me restate myself then oil is a finite resource. It will be harder to obtain (read more expensive) sometime in the future. Until the cost of producing a barrel of oil reaches the point where other energy sources are economically competitive, there will be little motivation for action. Technologies in pilot programs are useless. What will be needed is infrastructure before things become critical. Imagine having to build the Interstate system in the US in a year, because suddenly all the old US highways fell apart? It would have been an impossible task, and if by some miracle it were done it would have been woefully inadequate and dreadfully expensive. Fortunately the government at the time saw this coming, and provided resources in time to avoid a horrible mess. Nowadays though, the "private sector" seems to be the preferred ones to take care of things. There was a thread lamenting that taxes were not going to be reduced "enough" whatever enough is. It would have been far more usefull if Bush said that he was not giving a tax break, but instead launching an initiative to make the US energy independent via renewable resources and new technologies by 2020. We would be FAR better off than us stuffing a couple hundred bucks in our pockets now. No, we are going to hide our heads in the sand till things become prohibitively expensive, and then blame everyone but ourselves for lack of foresight.
 

Fencer128

Platinum Member
Jun 18, 2001
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Originally posted by: Jmman
Most models I have seen show oil prices increasing only at the rate on inflation for at least the next 30 years, with the US Geological suvey mean average of world oil reserves at 3 trillion barrels. Interesting study here.......Study

Thanks. That was a very interesting read (although I skimmed a lot!). I'm at a loss as to why if that is the reality - why a major oil company like shell produces the numbers it does? THe document focussed quite heavily on past trends as a justification for future growth. I wonder if there is some insight missing in that model that maybe other forecasters are including.

Cheers,

Andy
 

Jmman

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 1999
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Interesting little blurb........
"Estimates of the total amount of oil resources in the world grew throughout the 20th century [see Figure III].


In May 1920, the U.S. Geological Survey announced that the world?s total endowment of oil amounted to 60 billion barrels.17
In 1950, geologists estimated the world?s total oil endowment at around 600 billion barrels.
From 1970 through 1990, their estimates increased to between 1,500 and 2,000 billion barrels.
In 1994, the U.S. Geological Survey raised the estimate to 2,400 billion barrels, and their most recent estimate (2000) was of a 3,000-billion-barrel endowment.
By the year 2000, a total of 900 billion barrels of oil had been produced.18 Total world oil production in 2000 was 25 billion barrels.19 If world oil consumption continues to increase at an average rate of 1.4 percent a year, and no further resources are discovered, the world?s oil supply will not be exhausted until the year 2056."


Oil estimates are growing at an ever increasing rate......I have even seen some doomsday scenarios that put oil prices actually going down to $5 a barrel and the OPEC countries facing financial ruin because we have an oil glut !!


I thought I would add this little blurb about unconventional oil resources.......
Additional Petroleum Resources.

The estimates above do not include unconventional oil resources. Conventional oil refers to oil that is pumped out of the ground with minimal processing; unconventional oil resources consist largely of tar sands and oil shales that require processing to extract liquid petroleum. Unconventional oil resources are very large. In the future, new technologies that allow extraction of these unconventional resources likely will increase the world?s reserves.


Oil production from tar sands in Canada and South America would add about 600 billion barrels to the world?s supply.20
Rocks found in the three western states of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming alone contain 1,500 billion barrels of oil.21
Worldwide, the oil-shale resource base could easily be as large as 14,000 billion barrels ? more than 500 years of oil supply at year 2000 production rates.22
 

Fencer128

Platinum Member
Jun 18, 2001
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Originally posted by: Jmman
Here are a couple more articles.........
Why we will never run out of oil

That first link was a bit short on the facts. It negates the fact that the cost of extracting hard to get oil may and probably will become extremely prohibitive at some point. In effect, an end to the supply.

Are we running out of oil?

This one made a good point of how bad past predictions have been - and then appeared to make its own predictions on the future. I guess it depends on whose model you believe. It also mentions stocks from technologies that may become affordable - may.

When will we run out of gas?

And this one didn't seem to have any information/data.

It seems it a question of who's model for future growth and innovation you believe - rather than the underlying known stock.

Cheers,

Andy

EDIT: Time for bed! I admit you have a good point - but I still can't bring myself to side with either arguement particularly stringly, as it seems like there are still many unknowns. I believe that in this case we should act cautiously.
 

Kyteland

Diamond Member
Dec 30, 2002
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I remember reading similar studies done about coal anywhere from 300-150 years ago. There was a huge uproar in England because at the rate of consumption there was only a 50 year supply of coal and they had no idea what they would do when it ran out. Between new mining technologies and new resources we now have an estimated 300 year supply of coal.

I remember reading the study somewhere but I can't find any links. My Google skillz must be lacking.
 

desy

Diamond Member
Jan 13, 2000
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Yeah I was a jughead too, my crew didn't light up tho. Lots of walking!!
My one buddy who continued through the summer and was working in the fall in Alberta quit when he was standing in a slew arse deep wtih snow falling down around him.
It was his lighbulb moment to get out and went in Autobody. I just did it for the summer to get cash for school.
I know they use the ceramic paints a lot in ships to keep the many pipes insulated. I was on a destroyer my buddy was duty watch officer on and he pointed to a pipe and asked me what I though was in there. It was cool to the touch so I commented it must be water or something and he said yep water at XXXX Farenheight.
I'm not so sure its a scam yet the painter mentioned it when we were doing the ceiling and suggested to get it on before the stipple.
He mentioned it too late and I hadn't bothered to investigate it.